Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 6–12 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.2% 27.1–31.5% 26.4–32.1% 25.9–32.7% 24.9–33.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.3% 19.4–23.4% 18.9–24.0% 18.4–24.5% 17.6–25.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.9% 14.2–17.8% 13.7–18.3% 13.4–18.8% 12.6–19.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.0% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1% 8.0–12.5% 7.4–13.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.7% 5.9–9.1% 5.6–9.5% 5.1–10.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.7% 2.4–6.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.5% 2.8–5.7% 2.4–6.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.7–5.6% 2.3–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–5.0% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 52 48–56 47–57 45–59 43–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 35–42 34–43 33–44 31–46
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–32 25–34 24–34 22–36
Senterpartiet 19 17 16–20 15–21 14–22 12–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Rødt 1 7 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 0.5% 99.0%  
45 1.2% 98.5% Last Result
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 4% 93%  
49 10% 89%  
50 16% 78%  
51 10% 63%  
52 12% 52% Median
53 18% 41%  
54 7% 23%  
55 5% 17%  
56 4% 11%  
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.3% 99.6%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 1.0% 98%  
34 4% 97%  
35 7% 93%  
36 3% 86%  
37 18% 83%  
38 14% 65%  
39 15% 50% Median
40 8% 36%  
41 13% 28%  
42 7% 15%  
43 5% 8%  
44 1.4% 3%  
45 0.6% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.8%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.6%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 2% 98%  
25 10% 95%  
26 12% 86%  
27 16% 74% Last Result
28 11% 58% Median
29 9% 47%  
30 10% 38%  
31 16% 28%  
32 4% 13%  
33 3% 9%  
34 4% 6%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.8%  
13 1.0% 99.4%  
14 2% 98%  
15 3% 96%  
16 9% 94%  
17 36% 84% Median
18 15% 48%  
19 18% 33% Last Result
20 6% 15%  
21 5% 9%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 5% 98%  
11 16% 93% Last Result
12 25% 77%  
13 15% 52% Median
14 15% 37%  
15 14% 21%  
16 5% 8%  
17 1.5% 3%  
18 1.1% 1.4%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 35% 93%  
3 0% 58%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 4% 58%  
7 17% 55% Median
8 18% 38%  
9 15% 20%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 35% 91%  
3 3% 56%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.2% 53%  
7 10% 53% Median
8 26% 42%  
9 11% 16%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 56% 98.9% Median
3 2% 43%  
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.9% 41%  
7 11% 40%  
8 20% 29% Last Result
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 14% 98%  
2 19% 84%  
3 27% 66% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 4% 38%  
7 18% 35%  
8 12% 16% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 1.0%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 101–112 100–114 98–116 96–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 95 98.9% 89–99 88–101 86–102 83–105
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 89 82% 84–95 82–97 81–97 78–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 84 47% 80–91 79–92 77–94 74–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 80 18% 74–85 72–87 72–88 69–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 80 13% 75–85 73–86 72–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 79 8% 74–83 72–86 69–88 67–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 74 0.9% 69–80 67–81 67–83 64–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 74 1.1% 70–80 68–81 67–83 64–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 69 0% 65–73 64–76 63–76 60–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 66 0% 60–71 58–73 57–74 55–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 61 0% 56–65 55–67 53–69 51–72
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 60 0% 55–66 54–68 53–69 51–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 57 0% 53–61 51–62 50–63 48–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 48–56 47–57 45–58 43–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 27 0% 21–32 21–34 20–34 17–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.6% 99.6%  
97 0.5% 99.1%  
98 1.3% 98.5%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 9% 94%  
102 3% 85% Median
103 3% 82%  
104 6% 79%  
105 16% 73%  
106 12% 57%  
107 6% 45% Last Result
108 3% 39%  
109 4% 36%  
110 9% 32%  
111 7% 23%  
112 6% 16%  
113 2% 9%  
114 2% 7%  
115 1.2% 5%  
116 2% 4%  
117 1.1% 2%  
118 0.5% 0.9%  
119 0.3% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 99.5%  
85 0.5% 98.9% Majority
86 1.2% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 8% 94% Last Result
90 5% 86%  
91 8% 81%  
92 10% 73% Median
93 4% 63%  
94 4% 59%  
95 14% 55%  
96 10% 41%  
97 14% 31%  
98 5% 17%  
99 6% 13%  
100 1.4% 7%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.0% 3%  
103 1.3% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.7%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.8% 99.4%  
80 0.6% 98.7%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 8% 90%  
85 2% 82% Median, Majority
86 6% 80%  
87 12% 74%  
88 7% 61% Last Result
89 17% 55%  
90 5% 38%  
91 3% 32%  
92 7% 29%  
93 7% 22%  
94 3% 15%  
95 5% 12%  
96 2% 7%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.3% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.4%  
100 0.1% 0.6%  
101 0.3% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 0.8% 99.1%  
77 1.3% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 6% 93% Last Result
81 6% 87%  
82 15% 81% Median
83 7% 65%  
84 12% 58%  
85 11% 47% Majority
86 5% 35%  
87 8% 31%  
88 3% 23%  
89 3% 20%  
90 5% 17%  
91 4% 12%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.3% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.5%  
70 0.8% 99.4%  
71 0.3% 98.6%  
72 3% 98%  
73 2% 95%  
74 5% 93%  
75 3% 88%  
76 7% 85%  
77 7% 78%  
78 3% 71%  
79 5% 68%  
80 17% 62%  
81 7% 45% Last Result
82 12% 39%  
83 6% 26% Median
84 2% 20%  
85 8% 18% Majority
86 4% 10%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.2%  
72 2% 98% Last Result
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 6% 92%  
76 3% 87%  
77 6% 84%  
78 9% 78%  
79 5% 69%  
80 18% 64% Median
81 4% 46%  
82 13% 41%  
83 10% 28%  
84 5% 18%  
85 5% 13% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 0.6% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.4%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 0.6% 97%  
71 0.9% 96%  
72 0.5% 95%  
73 3% 95%  
74 3% 92%  
75 6% 89%  
76 14% 83%  
77 8% 69%  
78 4% 62%  
79 11% 57% Median
80 16% 46%  
81 9% 30%  
82 6% 21%  
83 6% 15%  
84 1.4% 9%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 0.7% 3% Last Result
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.4%  
66 1.3% 99.2%  
67 5% 98%  
68 2% 93%  
69 2% 91%  
70 5% 89%  
71 4% 83%  
72 5% 80%  
73 21% 75%  
74 7% 54%  
75 9% 47%  
76 4% 38% Median
77 9% 35%  
78 8% 26%  
79 3% 18%  
80 6% 15% Last Result
81 5% 9%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.8% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.9% Majority
86 0.4% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 1.3% 99.3%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 1.4% 95%  
70 6% 93%  
71 5% 87%  
72 14% 83%  
73 10% 69%  
74 14% 59%  
75 4% 45%  
76 4% 41% Median
77 10% 37%  
78 8% 27%  
79 5% 19%  
80 8% 14% Last Result
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.1% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 0.7% 99.2%  
62 0.8% 98.5%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 12% 94%  
66 4% 82%  
67 7% 77%  
68 8% 70%  
69 14% 62% Median
70 7% 49%  
71 17% 42%  
72 11% 25%  
73 4% 14%  
74 3% 10%  
75 2% 7%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 1.0% 99.3%  
57 1.5% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 2% 94%  
60 2% 92%  
61 3% 90%  
62 9% 87%  
63 3% 77%  
64 15% 74%  
65 5% 58%  
66 6% 53% Median
67 7% 48%  
68 9% 41%  
69 15% 32%  
70 5% 17%  
71 3% 12%  
72 3% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 0.4% 98.9%  
53 1.2% 98%  
54 1.3% 97%  
55 2% 96%  
56 10% 94%  
57 4% 85%  
58 6% 80%  
59 12% 74% Median
60 8% 63%  
61 16% 55%  
62 13% 38%  
63 6% 25%  
64 5% 20%  
65 5% 14%  
66 3% 9%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.2% 3%  
70 0.4% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 0.7% 99.0%  
53 1.1% 98%  
54 7% 97%  
55 3% 90%  
56 7% 87%  
57 7% 81% Median
58 8% 73%  
59 5% 65%  
60 10% 60%  
61 5% 50% Last Result
62 14% 44%  
63 9% 31%  
64 9% 22%  
65 2% 13%  
66 2% 11%  
67 2% 8%  
68 1.5% 6%  
69 3% 5%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.3% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 1.4% 96%  
52 4% 95%  
53 4% 90%  
54 19% 86%  
55 9% 68%  
56 6% 59% Median
57 14% 53%  
58 12% 38%  
59 11% 26%  
60 5% 15%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.2% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.9% 1.3%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1% Last Result
69 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.2% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 1.3% 98.6%  
46 1.2% 97%  
47 3% 96%  
48 15% 93%  
49 8% 78%  
50 6% 70%  
51 10% 65%  
52 16% 55% Median
53 17% 38%  
54 4% 21%  
55 6% 17%  
56 5% 11%  
57 2% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.3%  
19 0.9% 98.6%  
20 2% 98%  
21 9% 96%  
22 5% 87% Median
23 11% 82%  
24 3% 71%  
25 3% 68%  
26 13% 65%  
27 16% 52%  
28 5% 35%  
29 5% 31%  
30 9% 25%  
31 4% 16%  
32 5% 12%  
33 1.3% 7%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.1% 2% Last Result
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 0.6%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations