Opinion Poll by Sentio, 13–19 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.7% 26.6–30.9% 26.0–31.5% 25.5–32.0% 24.6–33.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.4–25.4% 20.8–26.0% 20.4–26.5% 19.5–27.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.9% 13.4–16.7% 12.9–17.2% 12.6–17.7% 11.8–18.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.4% 9.1–11.9% 8.7–12.4% 8.4–12.8% 7.8–13.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.7% 4.6–8.0% 4.1–8.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.7–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.8–5.7% 2.5–6.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 51 47–55 46–56 45–57 43–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 38–45 37–47 36–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–30 23–31 22–31 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 7–11 3–12 3–12 3–13
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 2% 98% Last Result
46 3% 95%  
47 5% 93%  
48 5% 88%  
49 11% 83%  
50 12% 72%  
51 16% 59% Median
52 12% 43%  
53 9% 31%  
54 5% 22%  
55 9% 17%  
56 4% 8%  
57 2% 4%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.6%  
37 6% 97%  
38 4% 92%  
39 7% 88%  
40 18% 81%  
41 11% 63%  
42 20% 52% Median
43 9% 32%  
44 8% 22%  
45 6% 15%  
46 3% 8%  
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.5%  
22 2% 98.7%  
23 3% 97%  
24 11% 94%  
25 16% 84%  
26 10% 67%  
27 23% 57% Last Result, Median
28 10% 34%  
29 12% 24%  
30 5% 12%  
31 5% 7%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.5% 1.0%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 2% 98%  
16 7% 96%  
17 14% 89%  
18 16% 75%  
19 22% 59% Last Result, Median
20 20% 36%  
21 8% 16%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.6% 99.7%  
8 4% 99.1%  
9 9% 96%  
10 22% 86%  
11 25% 64% Last Result, Median
12 23% 39%  
13 10% 16%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.7% 1.1%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 8% 99.7%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 4% 92%  
8 20% 88% Last Result
9 32% 68% Median
10 20% 36%  
11 11% 16%  
12 3% 5%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 35% 99.8%  
3 4% 65%  
4 0% 61%  
5 0% 61%  
6 0.1% 61%  
7 12% 61% Median
8 28% 49% Last Result
9 16% 20%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.9%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 24% 100% Last Result
2 60% 76% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.1% 17%  
7 4% 17%  
8 11% 12%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 45% 99.1% Last Result
2 42% 55% Median
3 0.8% 13%  
4 0.7% 12%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.2% 11%  
7 4% 11%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 112 100% 106–117 104–117 103–119 101–120
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 95 99.5% 89–99 88–101 87–102 85–104
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 92 98% 87–97 86–99 85–100 82–101
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 84 43% 78–89 77–90 76–92 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 82 30% 78–87 76–89 75–90 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 78 4% 73–82 72–84 71–85 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 77 2% 72–82 70–83 69–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 74 0.5% 70–80 68–81 67–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 74 0.7% 70–79 68–80 67–81 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0.1% 67–76 66–78 64–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 71 0% 67–76 66–78 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–76 60–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 66 0% 60–71 59–71 58–72 55–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 60 0% 57–65 56–65 55–67 53–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 57 0% 52–63 52–65 50–66 49–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 49–57 48–58 46–59 45–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–39 27–39 26–40 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.5% 99.5%  
102 0.8% 99.0%  
103 1.1% 98%  
104 4% 97%  
105 2% 93%  
106 4% 91%  
107 7% 88% Last Result
108 6% 81%  
109 6% 74%  
110 8% 68%  
111 7% 61%  
112 11% 54%  
113 9% 43% Median
114 6% 33%  
115 15% 28%  
116 2% 13%  
117 7% 11%  
118 1.0% 4%  
119 1.0% 3%  
120 2% 2%  
121 0.2% 0.3%  
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 2% 98.6%  
88 3% 97%  
89 7% 94% Last Result
90 3% 86%  
91 4% 83%  
92 5% 79%  
93 10% 75%  
94 12% 65%  
95 6% 53%  
96 6% 47% Median
97 13% 41%  
98 15% 28%  
99 4% 13%  
100 2% 9%  
101 4% 7%  
102 1.3% 3%  
103 0.4% 1.4%  
104 0.8% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.6% 99.5%  
83 0.4% 98.9%  
84 0.7% 98%  
85 1.1% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 9% 94%  
88 4% 86% Last Result
89 5% 81%  
90 5% 76%  
91 7% 71%  
92 16% 64%  
93 6% 49%  
94 4% 43% Median
95 6% 39%  
96 19% 32%  
97 5% 13%  
98 1.4% 7%  
99 2% 6%  
100 4% 4%  
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.3% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.9% 99.4%  
75 0.6% 98.5%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 6% 95%  
79 5% 89%  
80 5% 84% Last Result
81 7% 78%  
82 11% 71%  
83 9% 60%  
84 8% 51%  
85 5% 43% Median, Majority
86 8% 39%  
87 13% 30%  
88 7% 18%  
89 3% 11%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.6%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 3% 99.0%  
76 2% 96%  
77 4% 94%  
78 3% 91%  
79 8% 88%  
80 12% 80%  
81 11% 68%  
82 7% 56%  
83 10% 50% Median
84 10% 40%  
85 9% 30% Majority
86 6% 21%  
87 5% 14%  
88 4% 10% Last Result
89 1.4% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.3%  
93 0.6% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.4%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 96% Last Result
73 5% 94%  
74 6% 89%  
75 8% 83%  
76 11% 75%  
77 9% 65%  
78 10% 55% Median
79 12% 45%  
80 13% 34%  
81 5% 20%  
82 6% 16%  
83 2% 9%  
84 4% 7%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.2% 2%  
87 0.8% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.5%  
69 4% 99.2%  
70 2% 96%  
71 1.4% 94%  
72 5% 93%  
73 19% 87%  
74 6% 68%  
75 4% 61%  
76 6% 57% Median
77 16% 51%  
78 7% 36%  
79 5% 29%  
80 5% 24%  
81 4% 19% Last Result
82 9% 14%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.7%  
66 0.4% 98.9%  
67 1.3% 98.6%  
68 4% 97%  
69 2% 93%  
70 4% 91%  
71 15% 87%  
72 13% 72%  
73 6% 59%  
74 6% 53% Median
75 12% 47%  
76 10% 35%  
77 5% 25%  
78 4% 21%  
79 3% 17%  
80 7% 14% Last Result
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.4%  
67 3% 98.8%  
68 3% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 4% 90%  
71 18% 86%  
72 10% 68%  
73 6% 58%  
74 12% 52% Median
75 14% 40%  
76 7% 26%  
77 4% 19%  
78 4% 15%  
79 4% 11%  
80 3% 7% Last Result
81 2% 4%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.9%  
85 0.5% 0.7% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 3% 99.2%  
65 1.1% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 4% 92%  
68 6% 87%  
69 16% 82%  
70 9% 66%  
71 7% 57%  
72 10% 50% Median
73 14% 39%  
74 7% 25%  
75 7% 18%  
76 2% 11%  
77 3% 9% Last Result
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 98.9%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 5% 97%  
67 3% 92%  
68 3% 89%  
69 13% 86%  
70 17% 73%  
71 9% 57%  
72 10% 48% Median
73 13% 38%  
74 9% 25%  
75 5% 16%  
76 2% 10%  
77 3% 8%  
78 1.2% 5%  
79 2% 4% Last Result
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.2%  
62 0.5% 98.9%  
63 3% 98%  
64 1.4% 95%  
65 5% 94%  
66 8% 89%  
67 10% 81%  
68 15% 70%  
69 7% 55%  
70 10% 48% Median
71 17% 38%  
72 7% 21%  
73 5% 14%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3% Last Result
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.4%  
57 0.6% 98%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 9% 94%  
61 5% 86% Last Result
62 5% 81%  
63 9% 76%  
64 6% 67%  
65 6% 61%  
66 6% 55%  
67 9% 49% Median
68 11% 41%  
69 9% 30%  
70 4% 21%  
71 13% 17%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.8% 99.2%  
55 2% 98%  
56 6% 96%  
57 6% 91%  
58 11% 85%  
59 16% 74%  
60 9% 57%  
61 11% 48% Median
62 18% 37%  
63 4% 19%  
64 4% 15%  
65 6% 10%  
66 0.6% 5%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.4% 2% Last Result
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.7%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 1.0% 97%  
52 7% 96%  
53 2% 89%  
54 15% 87%  
55 6% 72%  
56 9% 67%  
57 11% 57% Median
58 7% 46%  
59 8% 39%  
60 6% 32%  
61 6% 26%  
62 7% 19% Last Result
63 4% 12%  
64 2% 9%  
65 4% 7%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 1.1% 97%  
48 5% 96%  
49 6% 90%  
50 10% 85%  
51 11% 75%  
52 13% 63%  
53 13% 50% Median
54 12% 37%  
55 6% 25%  
56 7% 19%  
57 3% 12%  
58 4% 9%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.6% 2% Last Result
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.7%  
24 1.0% 99.5%  
25 0.6% 98%  
26 0.9% 98%  
27 4% 97%  
28 3% 93%  
29 8% 90%  
30 5% 82%  
31 10% 77%  
32 11% 67%  
33 5% 56%  
34 5% 51%  
35 13% 47% Last Result, Median
36 10% 33%  
37 10% 24%  
38 4% 14%  
39 6% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations