Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 19–21 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.0–29.7% 24.5–30.2% 23.7–31.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.4% 23.6–27.3% 23.1–27.8% 22.7–28.2% 21.9–29.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.6% 12.2–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.5–15.9% 10.9–16.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.4–12.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 47–53 46–54 45–56 43–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 44–50 43–51 42–53 41–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 22–28 21–29 20–30
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–20 15–21 14–21 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 12–17 11–18 10–18
Venstre 8 9 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–9 0–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 1.0% 98% Last Result
46 3% 97%  
47 5% 94%  
48 4% 89%  
49 19% 85%  
50 20% 65% Median
51 9% 46%  
52 19% 37%  
53 10% 18%  
54 3% 8%  
55 1.5% 5%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.9%  
43 6% 96%  
44 18% 90%  
45 20% 72%  
46 15% 52% Median
47 9% 37%  
48 7% 28%  
49 8% 21% Last Result
50 4% 13%  
51 5% 9%  
52 1.2% 4%  
53 0.7% 3%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.7%  
21 3% 98.8%  
22 14% 96%  
23 13% 82%  
24 6% 69%  
25 14% 63% Median
26 6% 48%  
27 20% 43% Last Result
28 19% 23%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.0% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 5% 97%  
16 11% 93%  
17 14% 82%  
18 20% 68% Median
19 19% 48% Last Result
20 21% 29%  
21 6% 8%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 4% 99.4% Last Result
12 14% 96%  
13 7% 82%  
14 33% 75% Median
15 31% 42%  
16 5% 11%  
17 4% 7%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 5% 87%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 6% 82%  
8 21% 76% Last Result
9 42% 55% Median
10 8% 13%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 18% 98%  
2 7% 80%  
3 60% 73% Median
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0.1% 13%  
7 3% 12%  
8 7% 10% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 54% 100% Last Result, Median
2 41% 46%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 1.4% 5%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.9% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 62% 99.3% Last Result, Median
2 24% 37%  
3 2% 13%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.1% 11%  
7 6% 11%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 99–109 98–109 97–110 92–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 85% 84–92 83–93 81–94 77–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 70% 82–90 81–92 78–92 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 41% 80–88 79–90 78–91 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 30% 79–87 77–88 77–90 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 84 45% 79–87 77–88 76–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 15% 77–85 76–86 75–88 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 15% 77–85 76–87 74–87 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 5% 75–83 74–84 72–85 71–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 0.8% 71–79 71–80 69–82 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 69 0% 66–75 64–76 64–76 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 64–72 63–74 62–74 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 62–68 60–70 59–71 58–72
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 62 0% 57–65 55–67 54–68 51–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 57–65 57–66 55–67 53–69
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 23–32 22–34 21–35 19–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.5%  
94 0.3% 99.4%  
95 0.3% 99.1%  
96 0.6% 98.9%  
97 2% 98%  
98 3% 97%  
99 4% 94%  
100 6% 89%  
101 4% 83%  
102 7% 79%  
103 6% 72%  
104 13% 66%  
105 2% 53% Median
106 6% 51%  
107 18% 45% Last Result
108 8% 27%  
109 16% 19%  
110 0.7% 3%  
111 0.5% 2%  
112 0.5% 1.5%  
113 0.7% 0.9%  
114 0.2% 0.2%  
115 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.3% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.1% 99.6%  
78 0.2% 99.5%  
79 0.2% 99.3%  
80 0.8% 99.2%  
81 1.3% 98%  
82 0.8% 97%  
83 3% 96%  
84 8% 93%  
85 7% 85% Majority
86 5% 78%  
87 7% 74%  
88 7% 66% Median
89 4% 59% Last Result
90 32% 55%  
91 10% 23%  
92 6% 13%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.2%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.2% 99.4%  
77 0.9% 99.3%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 0.8% 97%  
80 1.3% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 7% 92%  
83 8% 85%  
84 7% 77%  
85 11% 70% Majority
86 5% 59%  
87 5% 55% Median
88 4% 49% Last Result
89 32% 45%  
90 4% 13%  
91 2% 9%  
92 4% 6%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.6% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.8% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 98.8%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 95%  
80 6% 92%  
81 6% 86%  
82 27% 80% Median
83 5% 54%  
84 8% 49%  
85 14% 41% Majority
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 22%  
88 7% 17% Last Result
89 4% 10%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 1.1% 1.4%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 1.0% 99.2%  
76 0.6% 98%  
77 4% 98%  
78 2% 94%  
79 4% 91%  
80 32% 87% Median
81 4% 55% Last Result
82 5% 51%  
83 5% 45%  
84 11% 41%  
85 7% 30% Majority
86 8% 23%  
87 7% 15%  
88 3% 8%  
89 1.3% 5%  
90 0.8% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.2% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.3% 0.3%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.3%  
73 0.1% 99.2%  
74 0.3% 99.1%  
75 1.2% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 93%  
79 6% 92%  
80 8% 86% Last Result
81 6% 78%  
82 13% 72%  
83 8% 59%  
84 5% 51% Median
85 3% 45% Majority
86 29% 42%  
87 5% 13%  
88 4% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.3% 2%  
91 0.8% 1.5%  
92 0.5% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.5%  
74 1.2% 98.8%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 95%  
77 6% 93%  
78 10% 87%  
79 32% 77% Median
80 4% 45% Last Result
81 7% 41%  
82 7% 34%  
83 5% 26%  
84 7% 22%  
85 8% 15% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 0.8% 4%  
88 1.3% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.3% 0.3%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 1.0% 99.5%  
74 2% 98.5%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 5% 92%  
78 9% 87%  
79 28% 78% Median
80 6% 49% Last Result
81 3% 44%  
82 8% 40%  
83 10% 32%  
84 7% 22%  
85 5% 15% Majority
86 4% 10%  
87 3% 6%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.5%  
90 0.8% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.7%  
72 2% 98.9%  
73 0.9% 97%  
74 5% 96%  
75 2% 92%  
76 11% 90%  
77 11% 79%  
78 27% 68% Median
79 5% 40% Last Result
80 11% 35%  
81 4% 24%  
82 7% 21%  
83 7% 14%  
84 2% 6%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 2% 97%  
71 6% 96%  
72 7% 90% Last Result
73 3% 83%  
74 12% 80%  
75 8% 67% Median
76 4% 59%  
77 37% 54%  
78 3% 17%  
79 7% 14%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.3% 3%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.2% 1.1%  
85 0.7% 0.8% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 1.4% 99.5%  
64 4% 98%  
65 2% 94%  
66 4% 92%  
67 13% 88%  
68 20% 75% Median
69 9% 54%  
70 13% 45%  
71 5% 33%  
72 6% 28%  
73 6% 22%  
74 4% 16%  
75 6% 12%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.3% 2% Last Result
78 0.2% 1.1%  
79 0.6% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.5%  
62 3% 99.3%  
63 5% 96%  
64 4% 91%  
65 4% 88%  
66 14% 84%  
67 28% 70% Median
68 11% 42%  
69 10% 31%  
70 6% 20%  
71 3% 15%  
72 4% 12%  
73 3% 8%  
74 4% 6%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
77 0.2% 0.8%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 3% 97%  
61 3% 93%  
62 10% 90%  
63 14% 80%  
64 26% 66% Median
65 12% 41%  
66 8% 29%  
67 3% 21%  
68 8% 17% Last Result
69 3% 9%  
70 3% 6%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.4% 100%  
49 0% 99.6%  
50 0% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.5%  
52 0.3% 98.7%  
53 0.2% 98%  
54 3% 98%  
55 0.9% 95%  
56 1.4% 95%  
57 5% 93%  
58 6% 88%  
59 9% 83%  
60 7% 74%  
61 14% 66% Last Result
62 25% 53% Median
63 6% 27%  
64 9% 21%  
65 4% 12%  
66 2% 8%  
67 2% 6%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.2%  
55 1.0% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 6% 95%  
58 23% 89%  
59 6% 66%  
60 20% 60% Last Result, Median
61 9% 40%  
62 6% 31%  
63 8% 25%  
64 6% 17%  
65 5% 11%  
66 2% 6%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.2% 1.0%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.5%  
20 0.7% 99.2%  
21 2% 98%  
22 2% 97%  
23 5% 95%  
24 1.1% 89%  
25 4% 88%  
26 4% 84%  
27 9% 80%  
28 9% 71%  
29 6% 62%  
30 18% 56% Median
31 10% 38%  
32 21% 28%  
33 2% 7%  
34 2% 5%  
35 1.2% 3% Last Result
36 1.0% 2%  
37 1.1% 1.3%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations