Opinion Poll by Norstat, 20–25 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.8% 27.0–30.8% 26.5–31.4% 26.0–31.8% 25.1–32.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.5% 22.8–26.4% 22.3–26.9% 21.9–27.4% 21.1–28.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.9% 11.5–14.4% 11.2–14.8% 10.9–15.2% 10.3–15.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.6% 9.0–13.0% 8.4–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8% 3.3–6.0% 3.0–6.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 50–57 49–58 47–59 45–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–48 41–50 40–51 38–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 19–28 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–23 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–13 8–14 8–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 3–11 1–12
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
46 0.8% 99.3%  
47 1.3% 98.5%  
48 2% 97%  
49 3% 95%  
50 12% 92%  
51 8% 80%  
52 13% 72%  
53 14% 60% Median
54 10% 46%  
55 16% 36%  
56 9% 20%  
57 5% 10%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.2%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.7%  
39 0.6% 99.4%  
40 1.5% 98.8%  
41 3% 97%  
42 9% 94%  
43 8% 85%  
44 21% 77%  
45 16% 56% Median
46 8% 41%  
47 9% 32%  
48 14% 23%  
49 2% 9% Last Result
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.4% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.8%  
19 2% 99.1%  
20 5% 97%  
21 7% 92%  
22 9% 85%  
23 18% 77%  
24 14% 58% Median
25 26% 45%  
26 11% 19%  
27 4% 7% Last Result
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 1.2%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 6% 97%  
18 17% 90%  
19 15% 73% Last Result
20 21% 58% Median
21 17% 37%  
22 8% 20%  
23 8% 12%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.9% 1.3%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 10% 97%  
10 24% 88%  
11 27% 64% Last Result, Median
12 20% 37%  
13 12% 17%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.9% 1.3%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 0.7% 99.3%  
3 17% 98.6%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 4% 82%  
8 35% 78% Last Result, Median
9 25% 42%  
10 11% 17%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.8% 1.1%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 67% 98.8% Median
3 10% 31%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0% 22%  
7 8% 21%  
8 11% 14% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 36% 99.9% Last Result
2 46% 64% Median
3 4% 18%  
4 0.3% 15%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0.1% 14%  
7 5% 14%  
8 7% 9%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 31% 100% Last Result
2 61% 69% Median
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.1% 8%  
7 3% 8%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 108 100% 103–112 102–113 101–114 98–116
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 96% 86–95 85–96 84–97 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 88 84% 84–92 82–93 81–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 73% 82–91 81–92 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 81 16% 77–85 76–87 75–88 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 9% 76–84 74–86 73–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 5% 75–83 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 4% 74–83 73–84 72–85 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.8% 72–81 71–81 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 0.7% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 75 0.7% 71–80 70–81 68–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0% 69–77 67–79 66–79 63–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 65 0% 60–68 59–70 57–71 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 61 0% 57–66 56–67 55–68 53–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 48–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 26–36 25–37 23–38 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.4% 99.7%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 1.0% 98.7%  
101 2% 98%  
102 4% 96%  
103 2% 92%  
104 7% 89%  
105 8% 82%  
106 9% 75%  
107 8% 66% Last Result, Median
108 8% 58%  
109 11% 49%  
110 16% 39%  
111 4% 23%  
112 12% 19%  
113 3% 7%  
114 1.4% 3%  
115 1.2% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.8%  
117 0.3% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.4%  
83 1.0% 99.0%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 7% 94%  
87 7% 86%  
88 7% 80%  
89 7% 72% Last Result, Median
90 12% 66%  
91 10% 54%  
92 20% 44%  
93 7% 24%  
94 6% 18%  
95 5% 11%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.2%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 0.8% 99.4%  
80 0.5% 98.6%  
81 2% 98%  
82 3% 96%  
83 3% 93%  
84 7% 91%  
85 7% 84% Majority
86 10% 77%  
87 10% 67% Median
88 8% 57% Last Result
89 9% 49%  
90 16% 40%  
91 11% 24%  
92 6% 13%  
93 3% 7%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.0%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 1.2% 99.0%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 95%  
82 6% 93%  
83 5% 87%  
84 9% 82%  
85 13% 73% Majority
86 16% 60% Median
87 8% 44%  
88 5% 36% Last Result
89 9% 31%  
90 8% 22%  
91 7% 14%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.4% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.9% 1.4%  
96 0.4% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.3%  
74 1.2% 98.9%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 93%  
78 11% 86%  
79 16% 75%  
80 9% 59% Median
81 8% 51% Last Result
82 10% 42%  
83 10% 32%  
84 7% 23%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.3%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 1.1% 99.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 6% 92%  
77 7% 85%  
78 10% 78%  
79 8% 69% Median
80 8% 61% Last Result
81 9% 52%  
82 19% 43%  
83 10% 25%  
84 6% 15%  
85 2% 9% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.3% 2%  
90 0.9% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 99.2%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 95%  
75 6% 91%  
76 9% 85%  
77 17% 76%  
78 10% 60% Median
79 10% 49%  
80 8% 39% Last Result
81 8% 31%  
82 10% 24%  
83 6% 14%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 1.1% 98.8%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 5% 93%  
75 6% 88%  
76 7% 82%  
77 20% 75%  
78 10% 56% Median
79 12% 46%  
80 7% 34% Last Result
81 7% 27%  
82 7% 20%  
83 7% 13%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 1.4% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 95%  
72 6% 93%  
73 6% 87%  
74 7% 81%  
75 16% 74%  
76 12% 57% Median
77 13% 46%  
78 9% 33%  
79 4% 24% Last Result
80 7% 19%  
81 8% 12%  
82 1.1% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.3%  
85 0.5% 0.8% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.2%  
70 2% 98.7%  
71 3% 97%  
72 5% 94% Last Result
73 4% 89%  
74 8% 85%  
75 11% 78%  
76 13% 66%  
77 6% 53% Median
78 9% 47%  
79 11% 38%  
80 15% 27%  
81 5% 13%  
82 4% 7%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.7% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.0%  
68 1.0% 98.5%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 5% 91%  
72 7% 87%  
73 8% 80%  
74 14% 72%  
75 8% 58% Median
76 13% 50%  
77 8% 37% Last Result
78 9% 29%  
79 8% 20%  
80 4% 12%  
81 4% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.2%  
85 0.5% 0.7% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.9% 99.0%  
66 1.5% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 8% 91%  
70 8% 83%  
71 8% 75%  
72 17% 68%  
73 8% 50% Median
74 6% 42%  
75 13% 36%  
76 9% 23% Last Result
77 6% 14%  
78 2% 8%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.3% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.5% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.5%  
60 5% 97%  
61 4% 92%  
62 6% 88%  
63 9% 82%  
64 17% 73%  
65 10% 56% Median
66 12% 46%  
67 12% 35%  
68 11% 23% Last Result
69 5% 12%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 1.3% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 1.4% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 4% 93%  
61 10% 89% Last Result
62 8% 79%  
63 10% 71% Median
64 11% 61%  
65 19% 50%  
66 10% 32%  
67 6% 21%  
68 7% 15%  
69 3% 8%  
70 1.3% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 1.2% 99.1%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 12% 93%  
58 4% 81%  
59 16% 77%  
60 11% 61% Median
61 8% 50%  
62 8% 42% Last Result
63 9% 33%  
64 8% 25%  
65 7% 17%  
66 2% 10%  
67 4% 8%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.3%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.5%  
50 0.9% 98.9%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 6% 92%  
54 13% 86%  
55 21% 74%  
56 10% 53% Median
57 9% 43%  
58 9% 34%  
59 7% 25%  
60 9% 18% Last Result
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.1%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 1.3% 97%  
25 4% 96%  
26 2% 92%  
27 4% 90%  
28 6% 86%  
29 9% 79%  
30 18% 70% Median
31 9% 53%  
32 10% 44%  
33 12% 33%  
34 6% 22%  
35 4% 16% Last Result
36 6% 11%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 1.0% 1.5%  
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations