Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 26 February–3 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.3% 27.3–31.4% 26.8–32.0% 26.3–32.5% 25.3–33.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.6–25.4% 21.0–26.0% 20.6–26.4% 19.8–27.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.1% 10.7–13.7% 10.3–14.1% 10.0–14.5% 9.4–15.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.8% 9.5–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3% 5.1–8.6% 4.7–9.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.6–6.6% 3.3–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–5.9% 3.3–6.2% 3.0–6.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 48–57 48–58 47–58 45–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–45 39–46 38–47 36–49
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 18–24 17–25 17–27
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–22 15–22 14–23 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Venstre 8 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 3–11 1–12
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
46 1.0% 99.2%  
47 2% 98%  
48 6% 96%  
49 5% 90%  
50 5% 85%  
51 8% 79%  
52 17% 71%  
53 29% 54% Median
54 7% 26%  
55 4% 19%  
56 4% 14%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.5%  
37 0.7% 99.0%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 6% 93%  
41 11% 87%  
42 14% 76%  
43 28% 62% Median
44 11% 34%  
45 14% 23%  
46 4% 9%  
47 3% 5%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.8%  
18 8% 96%  
19 15% 89% Last Result
20 30% 73% Median
21 14% 43%  
22 10% 29%  
23 10% 19%  
24 4% 9%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 6% 97%  
16 12% 92%  
17 25% 80%  
18 10% 55% Median
19 8% 44%  
20 12% 36%  
21 11% 24%  
22 9% 13%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.9% 1.5%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 6% 98%  
10 30% 91%  
11 18% 61% Last Result, Median
12 21% 43%  
13 11% 22%  
14 7% 11%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 0.8% 92%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0.8% 91%  
7 16% 91%  
8 25% 75% Last Result
9 30% 50% Median
10 15% 20%  
11 3% 5%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 1.4% 99.0%  
3 14% 98%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0.5% 84%  
7 17% 83%  
8 40% 67% Last Result, Median
9 19% 26%  
10 5% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 61% 96% Median
3 0% 35%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 1.5% 35%  
7 20% 34%  
8 9% 14%  
9 3% 4%  
10 1.3% 1.5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 24% 99.9% Last Result
2 36% 76% Median
3 0.6% 40%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 2% 39%  
7 26% 37%  
8 10% 12%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 107 100% 103–112 101–114 100–115 97–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 95% 86–94 84–95 83–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 68% 81–91 79–92 79–93 76–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 66% 82–91 80–92 79–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 34% 78–87 77–89 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 5% 75–83 74–85 72–86 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 6% 75–83 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 4% 74–83 72–84 71–86 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.6% 70–79 69–81 69–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.2% 70–80 68–80 67–81 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 67–75 66–76 65–78 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 66–74 65–76 64–78 62–80
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 68 0% 63–72 62–74 60–75 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 60–67 59–69 58–70 57–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 62 0% 57–66 55–68 54–69 52–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–58 50–59 49–60 46–61
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 36 0% 32–40 31–41 30–43 28–44

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.3%  
99 0.2% 99.1%  
100 2% 98.8%  
101 3% 97%  
102 2% 93%  
103 6% 91%  
104 3% 85%  
105 16% 82%  
106 8% 66%  
107 18% 57% Last Result
108 9% 39% Median
109 6% 31%  
110 10% 25%  
111 4% 15%  
112 3% 11%  
113 1.4% 8%  
114 4% 7%  
115 1.4% 3%  
116 0.4% 1.1%  
117 0.3% 0.7%  
118 0.1% 0.4%  
119 0.3% 0.3%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.5%  
81 0.6% 99.4%  
82 1.0% 98.8%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 11% 92%  
87 6% 81%  
88 7% 75%  
89 6% 68% Last Result
90 5% 62% Median
91 12% 57%  
92 18% 45%  
93 7% 27%  
94 13% 19%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.7% 0.8%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 0.8% 99.3%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 5% 98%  
80 2% 93%  
81 3% 91%  
82 5% 88%  
83 6% 83%  
84 9% 77% Median
85 15% 68% Majority
86 11% 54%  
87 3% 43%  
88 16% 40% Last Result
89 3% 24%  
90 8% 21%  
91 6% 12%  
92 4% 6%  
93 0.5% 3%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.8%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 0.3% 99.0%  
79 1.5% 98.7%  
80 3% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 3% 92%  
83 4% 89%  
84 19% 85%  
85 8% 66% Majority
86 7% 58%  
87 18% 51%  
88 4% 34% Last Result, Median
89 6% 30%  
90 10% 24%  
91 8% 14%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.6% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 98.8%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 8% 94% Median
79 10% 86%  
80 6% 76%  
81 4% 70% Last Result
82 18% 66%  
83 7% 49%  
84 8% 42%  
85 19% 34% Majority
86 4% 15%  
87 3% 11%  
88 3% 8%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.5% 3%  
91 0.3% 1.3%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 13% 93%  
76 7% 81% Median
77 18% 73%  
78 12% 55%  
79 5% 43%  
80 6% 38% Last Result
81 7% 32%  
82 6% 25%  
83 11% 19%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.6%  
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 5% 93%  
76 13% 88%  
77 11% 75%  
78 6% 64%  
79 18% 58%  
80 4% 40% Last Result, Median
81 6% 35%  
82 14% 30%  
83 7% 16%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 4% 98.9%  
72 2% 95%  
73 2% 93%  
74 3% 91%  
75 8% 88%  
76 7% 80% Median
77 11% 73%  
78 11% 61%  
79 5% 50%  
80 14% 45% Last Result
81 6% 31%  
82 6% 25%  
83 13% 19%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.3% 4% Majority
86 1.1% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 1.3% 99.1%  
69 5% 98%  
70 3% 93%  
71 3% 89%  
72 4% 86%  
73 16% 82%  
74 9% 66% Median
75 17% 57%  
76 17% 40%  
77 6% 22%  
78 4% 17%  
79 3% 13% Last Result
80 4% 10%  
81 3% 6%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 98.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 4% 90%  
71 7% 87%  
72 4% 80%  
73 18% 76% Median
74 9% 58%  
75 5% 49%  
76 9% 44%  
77 7% 35% Last Result
78 13% 28%  
79 3% 16%  
80 9% 12%  
81 1.2% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 96%  
67 3% 92%  
68 12% 89%  
69 14% 77%  
70 14% 63%  
71 7% 50% Median
72 10% 43% Last Result
73 6% 33%  
74 14% 27%  
75 6% 13%  
76 2% 7%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 1.2% 99.3%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 5% 95%  
67 5% 90%  
68 4% 84%  
69 5% 80%  
70 10% 75%  
71 25% 64% Median
72 13% 40%  
73 9% 27%  
74 9% 17%  
75 3% 8%  
76 1.2% 5% Last Result
77 1.1% 4%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.3% 1.1%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.8% 99.4%  
60 1.2% 98.6%  
61 2% 97% Last Result
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 93%  
64 5% 88%  
65 5% 84%  
66 8% 79%  
67 9% 71%  
68 15% 62%  
69 9% 46%  
70 20% 37% Median
71 4% 17%  
72 4% 12%  
73 4% 9%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.4% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 1.3% 99.5%  
58 2% 98%  
59 6% 96%  
60 4% 90%  
61 6% 86%  
62 8% 81%  
63 28% 73% Median
64 14% 45%  
65 11% 31%  
66 9% 21%  
67 4% 11%  
68 2% 7% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.5%  
72 0.7% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.7%  
52 0.3% 99.6%  
53 0.4% 99.3%  
54 1.4% 98.9%  
55 4% 97%  
56 1.4% 93%  
57 3% 92%  
58 4% 89% Median
59 10% 85%  
60 6% 75%  
61 9% 69%  
62 18% 61% Last Result
63 8% 43%  
64 16% 34%  
65 3% 18%  
66 6% 15%  
67 2% 9%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.2% 1.2%  
71 0.3% 0.9%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.5%  
48 1.0% 98.9%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 96%  
51 5% 91%  
52 12% 86%  
53 18% 74%  
54 8% 57% Median
55 24% 49%  
56 4% 25%  
57 9% 21%  
58 6% 12%  
59 2% 6%  
60 3% 4% Last Result
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.8%  
27 0.2% 99.7%  
28 0.6% 99.6%  
29 0.8% 98.9%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 97%  
32 4% 93%  
33 9% 88%  
34 6% 79%  
35 11% 73% Last Result
36 18% 63%  
37 18% 45% Median
38 5% 27%  
39 10% 22%  
40 2% 11%  
41 5% 9%  
42 1.5% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations