Opinion Poll by Norstat, 27 February–5 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.4% 25.6–29.4% 25.1–29.9% 24.6–30.4% 23.8–31.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.6–25.2% 21.1–25.7% 20.7–26.2% 19.9–27.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.1% 13.6–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.2–18.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.6–14.2% 10.3–14.5% 9.7–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Venstre 4.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 45–54 44–56 43–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–46 39–47 38–49 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–34
Senterpartiet 19 23 20–25 19–26 19–26 18–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.5% 99.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96% Last Result
46 5% 93%  
47 7% 88%  
48 13% 81%  
49 15% 68%  
50 14% 53% Median
51 9% 38%  
52 10% 29%  
53 8% 19%  
54 6% 11%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.9% 3%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 1.2% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 9% 92%  
41 14% 83%  
42 21% 69% Median
43 9% 47%  
44 11% 39%  
45 13% 28%  
46 6% 15%  
47 4% 9%  
48 1.5% 5%  
49 2% 3% Last Result
50 0.7% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.0%  
24 7% 97%  
25 13% 90%  
26 15% 77%  
27 19% 63% Last Result, Median
28 16% 43%  
29 10% 27%  
30 7% 17%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 5%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.8%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.5% 99.6%  
19 4% 98% Last Result
20 9% 94%  
21 14% 84%  
22 19% 70%  
23 10% 51% Median
24 13% 41%  
25 19% 28%  
26 6% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 4% 98%  
11 6% 93% Last Result
12 34% 87%  
13 32% 53% Median
14 6% 21%  
15 8% 15%  
16 6% 7%  
17 0.5% 0.8%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 25% 100%  
3 4% 75%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0% 71%  
7 10% 71%  
8 31% 61% Last Result, Median
9 21% 30%  
10 7% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 24% 100% Last Result
2 61% 76% Median
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 6% 15%  
8 8% 9%  
9 1.1% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 22% 96%  
2 13% 74%  
3 50% 61% Median
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 3% 10%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 0.9% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 74% 98% Last Result, Median
2 18% 24%  
3 3% 6%  
4 0.2% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 1.5% 3%  
8 1.4% 1.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 110 100% 104–113 103–115 101–115 100–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 84% 83–93 82–94 80–95 79–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 73% 82–92 81–93 79–94 78–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 84 34% 79–89 78–91 76–92 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 26% 78–87 76–89 75–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 27% 77–87 76–88 75–90 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 16% 76–86 75–87 74–89 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 9% 75–84 74–85 73–88 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 4% 74–83 73–84 72–86 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 2% 73–82 72–83 71–84 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 64–74 63–74 62–76 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 61–69 60–71 59–71 57–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 60 0% 55–64 53–65 52–66 50–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 52–59 51–61 50–62 48–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 33 0% 27–37 26–38 25–39 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.6% 99.7%  
101 2% 99.0%  
102 0.7% 97%  
103 3% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 5% 90%  
106 8% 85%  
107 7% 76% Last Result
108 11% 69%  
109 8% 58%  
110 5% 50%  
111 7% 46% Median
112 20% 39%  
113 10% 19%  
114 4% 9%  
115 4% 5%  
116 0.6% 1.5%  
117 0.5% 0.9%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.1%  
81 0.7% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 7% 94%  
84 4% 88%  
85 5% 84% Majority
86 9% 78%  
87 11% 69%  
88 23% 59%  
89 5% 35% Last Result, Median
90 6% 30%  
91 7% 24%  
92 5% 18%  
93 5% 13%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.8% 1.1%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.9% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 1.0% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 8% 94%  
83 4% 85%  
84 8% 81%  
85 9% 73% Majority
86 10% 64%  
87 22% 54%  
88 6% 32% Last Result, Median
89 5% 26%  
90 6% 21%  
91 3% 15%  
92 5% 11%  
93 3% 6%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 1.3%  
96 0.7% 0.9%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 99.4%  
76 1.2% 98.6%  
77 1.4% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 5% 93%  
80 4% 88% Last Result
81 9% 84%  
82 10% 75%  
83 13% 65%  
84 18% 52%  
85 10% 34% Median, Majority
86 4% 24%  
87 4% 20%  
88 3% 16%  
89 4% 13%  
90 2% 9%  
91 4% 7%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.1%  
76 4% 97%  
77 3% 93%  
78 4% 90%  
79 3% 86%  
80 7% 83%  
81 8% 76%  
82 11% 68% Median
83 16% 57%  
84 16% 41%  
85 10% 26% Majority
86 6% 16%  
87 2% 10%  
88 3% 8% Last Result
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.1%  
75 2% 98.7%  
76 3% 97%  
77 5% 94%  
78 3% 89%  
79 6% 85%  
80 5% 79%  
81 6% 74% Last Result, Median
82 22% 68%  
83 10% 46%  
84 9% 36%  
85 8% 27% Majority
86 4% 19%  
87 8% 15%  
88 2% 6%  
89 1.0% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.9% 1.3%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.8% 99.7%  
73 0.7% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 5% 92%  
77 5% 87%  
78 7% 82%  
79 6% 76%  
80 5% 70% Last Result, Median
81 23% 65%  
82 11% 41%  
83 9% 31%  
84 5% 22%  
85 4% 16% Majority
86 7% 12%  
87 2% 6%  
88 0.7% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.7% 0.9%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 0.5% 99.0%  
73 1.4% 98.6%  
74 4% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 4% 87%  
77 9% 83%  
78 7% 75%  
79 5% 67% Median
80 23% 62% Last Result
81 14% 39%  
82 6% 25%  
83 6% 19%  
84 4% 13%  
85 5% 9% Majority
86 0.7% 4%  
87 0.6% 3%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.9% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 98.7%  
72 2% 98%  
73 5% 96%  
74 6% 91%  
75 5% 85%  
76 11% 81%  
77 6% 70%  
78 7% 64% Median
79 22% 56% Last Result
80 13% 35%  
81 7% 21%  
82 4% 14%  
83 3% 10%  
84 4% 7%  
85 0.8% 4% Majority
86 0.8% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 1.4% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 96% Last Result
73 8% 93%  
74 11% 85%  
75 6% 74%  
76 10% 68%  
77 20% 58% Median
78 6% 39%  
79 7% 33%  
80 8% 25%  
81 6% 17%  
82 4% 11%  
83 5% 8%  
84 1.0% 3%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.1% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.9%  
88 0.5% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 4% 97%  
64 4% 94%  
65 4% 90%  
66 3% 86%  
67 4% 83%  
68 7% 79%  
69 11% 73% Median
70 11% 62%  
71 20% 51%  
72 13% 31%  
73 6% 18%  
74 7% 11%  
75 1.4% 5%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 4% 96%  
63 3% 93%  
64 5% 89%  
65 3% 85%  
66 4% 82%  
67 8% 77%  
68 14% 70% Median
69 11% 55%  
70 19% 45%  
71 13% 26%  
72 7% 13%  
73 3% 6%  
74 1.3% 4%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 1.0% 99.3%  
59 1.4% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 7% 93%  
62 4% 86%  
63 5% 82%  
64 8% 77%  
65 8% 69% Median
66 18% 61%  
67 19% 43%  
68 9% 24% Last Result
69 6% 14%  
70 3% 9%  
71 4% 6%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.7%  
51 0.7% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 93%  
55 9% 90%  
56 4% 81%  
57 6% 77%  
58 7% 71%  
59 13% 64%  
60 16% 51%  
61 6% 35% Last Result, Median
62 12% 29%  
63 5% 17%  
64 5% 12%  
65 3% 7%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 0.8% 99.2%  
50 1.4% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 5% 94%  
53 11% 89%  
54 24% 79%  
55 8% 54% Median
56 9% 46%  
57 9% 37%  
58 13% 29%  
59 7% 16%  
60 4% 9% Last Result
61 2% 5%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 1.0% 1.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 0.7% 99.1%  
25 2% 98%  
26 3% 96%  
27 7% 93%  
28 7% 86%  
29 5% 80%  
30 9% 75%  
31 9% 66%  
32 6% 57%  
33 7% 52%  
34 9% 45% Median
35 21% 36% Last Result
36 5% 15%  
37 3% 10%  
38 4% 7%  
39 1.0% 3%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 1.1% 1.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations