Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 1–5 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.8–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.2% 20.1–27.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.6% 10.3–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.7–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.3% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–8.9% 5.3–9.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 47–53 47–54 46–55 45–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 41–44 40–44 39–45 38–47
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–26 20–26 19–26 18–28
Senterpartiet 19 19 18–23 17–24 17–25 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 12–14 11–16 10–17 10–17
Venstre 8 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 3–10 1–11
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.5% Last Result
46 2% 98%  
47 14% 96%  
48 8% 82%  
49 20% 74%  
50 23% 54% Median
51 9% 31%  
52 10% 22%  
53 7% 12%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.2% 0.9%  
57 0.4% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 4% 97%  
41 14% 92%  
42 38% 78% Median
43 27% 41%  
44 10% 14%  
45 2% 4%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.8%  
19 2% 98%  
20 3% 97%  
21 2% 94%  
22 5% 92%  
23 28% 87%  
24 8% 59%  
25 24% 51% Median
26 24% 26%  
27 1.1% 2% Last Result
28 0.9% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 5% 99.8%  
18 15% 95%  
19 54% 80% Last Result, Median
20 9% 26%  
21 5% 17%  
22 0.7% 12%  
23 2% 12%  
24 7% 9%  
25 0.7% 3%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 6% 97% Last Result
12 27% 91%  
13 35% 64% Median
14 20% 29%  
15 4% 9%  
16 2% 5%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 7% 100%  
3 1.0% 93%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 25% 92%  
8 31% 67% Last Result, Median
9 14% 36%  
10 17% 22%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 0.8% 99.0%  
3 12% 98%  
4 0% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0% 86%  
7 28% 86%  
8 15% 57% Last Result, Median
9 37% 42%  
10 3% 5%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 68% 100% Last Result, Median
2 29% 32%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 15% 99.7% Last Result
2 51% 85% Median
3 5% 34%  
4 0% 29%  
5 0% 29%  
6 0% 29%  
7 24% 29%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 110 100% 106–113 103–114 101–115 100–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 94 98% 89–95 87–97 85–97 83–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 90 89% 84–93 82–95 81–95 80–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 78% 81–88 81–90 79–93 78–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 15% 78–86 77–87 75–88 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 79 11% 76–85 74–87 74–88 74–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 5% 74–81 73–84 73–86 72–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 75 2% 74–80 72–82 72–84 72–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 74 0.1% 72–78 71–79 71–80 69–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.1% 71–77 70–79 69–80 67–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0% 68–75 67–77 66–79 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 66–72 65–74 65–74 63–77
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 66 0% 62–69 58–70 57–71 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 61 0% 59–65 59–66 58–67 57–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 53–57 52–58 51–59 49–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 35 0% 31–38 30–41 28–41 24–43

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 1.2% 99.9%  
101 1.4% 98.7%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 0.7% 92%  
106 22% 91%  
107 7% 68% Last Result
108 6% 61%  
109 2% 55%  
110 18% 53% Median
111 19% 36%  
112 4% 17%  
113 6% 12%  
114 2% 6%  
115 4% 5%  
116 0.3% 0.9%  
117 0.3% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 1.1% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 98.6%  
85 1.0% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 0.7% 95%  
88 2% 95%  
89 5% 92% Last Result
90 6% 87%  
91 4% 81%  
92 10% 77%  
93 15% 67% Median
94 41% 52%  
95 3% 11%  
96 2% 8%  
97 6% 6%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 1.4% 99.9%  
81 3% 98%  
82 0.5% 95%  
83 1.4% 95%  
84 4% 93%  
85 1.1% 89% Majority
86 1.1% 88%  
87 23% 87%  
88 6% 64% Last Result
89 6% 58%  
90 4% 52%  
91 18% 48% Median
92 20% 30%  
93 2% 11%  
94 1.3% 8%  
95 7% 7%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 2% 99.6%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 0.5% 97%  
81 9% 96%  
82 3% 87%  
83 4% 85%  
84 2% 80% Median
85 27% 78% Majority
86 15% 52%  
87 4% 36%  
88 23% 32% Last Result
89 1.2% 9%  
90 4% 8%  
91 1.2% 5%  
92 0.4% 3%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 98%  
75 1.3% 98%  
76 0.9% 96%  
77 4% 95%  
78 2% 92%  
79 2% 90%  
80 24% 88% Last Result
81 3% 63%  
82 24% 61%  
83 19% 37% Median
84 3% 18%  
85 4% 15% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 5% 9%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.8% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 7% 99.6%  
75 1.3% 93%  
76 2% 92%  
77 20% 89% Median
78 18% 70%  
79 4% 52%  
80 6% 48%  
81 6% 42% Last Result
82 23% 36%  
83 1.1% 13%  
84 1.1% 12%  
85 4% 11% Majority
86 1.4% 7%  
87 0.5% 5%  
88 3% 5%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.5%  
73 6% 98%  
74 2% 92%  
75 3% 90%  
76 20% 86% Median
77 18% 67%  
78 8% 49%  
79 5% 41%  
80 4% 36% Last Result
81 22% 32%  
82 1.0% 9%  
83 2% 8%  
84 1.1% 6%  
85 1.3% 5% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.4% 1.4%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 6% 99.6%  
73 2% 94%  
74 3% 92%  
75 41% 89% Median
76 15% 48%  
77 10% 33%  
78 4% 23%  
79 6% 19%  
80 5% 13% Last Result
81 2% 8%  
82 0.7% 5%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.0% 3%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 1.1% 1.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 1.5% 99.5%  
71 5% 98%  
72 4% 93%  
73 4% 90%  
74 41% 86% Median
75 19% 45%  
76 6% 26%  
77 8% 20%  
78 5% 12%  
79 4% 7% Last Result
80 0.9% 3%  
81 1.4% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 94%  
72 14% 89% Last Result
73 31% 75%  
74 7% 45%  
75 20% 38% Median
76 5% 18%  
77 3% 13%  
78 3% 10%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 1.1% 99.5%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 6% 89%  
70 3% 83%  
71 2% 80% Median
72 19% 78%  
73 22% 59%  
74 2% 37%  
75 26% 35%  
76 4% 9%  
77 1.1% 6% Last Result
78 2% 5%  
79 0.6% 3%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 1.4% 99.6%  
64 0.1% 98%  
65 5% 98%  
66 3% 93%  
67 8% 90%  
68 26% 82%  
69 7% 56% Median
70 14% 49%  
71 24% 35%  
72 3% 11%  
73 0.8% 8%  
74 5% 7%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.9% 2% Last Result
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 1.1% 99.9%  
57 3% 98.8%  
58 2% 96%  
59 0.5% 94%  
60 2% 94%  
61 2% 92% Last Result
62 3% 90%  
63 1.1% 87%  
64 30% 86%  
65 4% 57%  
66 30% 53% Median
67 3% 23%  
68 7% 20%  
69 6% 13%  
70 4% 7%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.6%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 7% 97%  
60 3% 90%  
61 38% 87% Median
62 26% 49%  
63 7% 23%  
64 4% 16%  
65 7% 12%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 1.0% 2% Last Result
69 0.4% 1.0%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.1%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 5% 97%  
53 8% 92%  
54 4% 84%  
55 43% 80% Median
56 17% 38%  
57 11% 21%  
58 5% 9%  
59 3% 5%  
60 0.7% 1.2% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.8%  
25 0% 98.5%  
26 0.4% 98%  
27 0.1% 98%  
28 0.8% 98%  
29 1.3% 97%  
30 2% 96%  
31 5% 94%  
32 2% 89%  
33 23% 87%  
34 9% 63%  
35 5% 54% Last Result, Median
36 22% 49%  
37 4% 27%  
38 14% 22%  
39 2% 9%  
40 2% 7%  
41 4% 6%  
42 0.7% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations