Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 6–7 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.4% 26.4–30.6% 25.9–31.2% 25.4–31.7% 24.5–32.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.5% 20.7–24.5% 20.2–25.1% 19.7–25.5% 18.9–26.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.8% 11.4–14.4% 11.0–14.9% 10.6–15.3% 10.0–16.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.6% 11.2–14.3% 10.8–14.7% 10.5–15.2% 9.9–16.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.6% 5.4–8.9% 4.9–9.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.7–5.4% 2.3–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.5% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 51 47–55 46–56 46–57 44–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 37–45 37–46 36–47 34–49
Senterpartiet 19 23 20–26 20–27 19–28 18–30
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 20–26 20–27 19–27 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–14 10–16 10–17 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–9 1–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.5%  
45 1.4% 98.9% Last Result
46 3% 98%  
47 9% 95%  
48 5% 86%  
49 13% 81%  
50 10% 69%  
51 13% 58% Median
52 15% 45%  
53 9% 29%  
54 10% 21%  
55 2% 11%  
56 5% 8%  
57 1.2% 4%  
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 0.8% 99.4%  
36 3% 98.6%  
37 6% 96%  
38 10% 89%  
39 10% 80%  
40 12% 70%  
41 15% 58% Median
42 15% 43%  
43 10% 29%  
44 6% 19%  
45 5% 13%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.7%  
19 3% 99.0% Last Result
20 8% 96%  
21 13% 88%  
22 12% 75%  
23 17% 64% Median
24 14% 46%  
25 15% 32%  
26 9% 17%  
27 3% 8%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.4%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.0% 99.7%  
19 3% 98.6%  
20 7% 96%  
21 7% 89%  
22 16% 82%  
23 15% 65%  
24 21% 51% Median
25 13% 29%  
26 8% 16%  
27 7% 8% Last Result
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.8%  
10 7% 98.6%  
11 6% 92% Last Result
12 13% 86%  
13 40% 72% Median
14 23% 33%  
15 4% 9%  
16 3% 5%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100% Last Result
2 40% 90%  
3 3% 51% Median
4 0.8% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0.1% 47%  
7 12% 47%  
8 18% 35%  
9 13% 17%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 6% 99.9%  
2 10% 94%  
3 41% 84% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 14% 43%  
8 22% 29% Last Result
9 5% 7%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 47% 99.3%  
3 9% 52% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 8% 43%  
8 25% 35% Last Result
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 26% 100% Last Result
2 57% 74% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 7% 17%  
8 7% 10%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 102–114 101–115 99–116 97–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 89 88% 84–94 82–95 81–97 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 75% 81–92 80–94 79–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 85 58% 79–90 78–91 77–93 75–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 84 42% 79–90 78–91 76–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 33% 77–88 76–89 75–90 72–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 12% 75–85 74–87 72–88 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 14% 74–85 72–87 71–88 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 3% 73–82 71–84 71–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.4% 70–79 68–80 67–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.5% 68–79 67–81 66–82 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–74 63–75 62–77 60–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–69 58–71 58–71 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 62 0% 55–67 54–68 53–70 52–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 61 0% 55–66 54–67 54–68 52–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–59 50–59 48–60 46–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–39 26–40 26–41 24–43

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 1.3% 99.3%  
99 2% 98%  
100 1.5% 96%  
101 3% 95%  
102 7% 92%  
103 4% 85%  
104 5% 81% Median
105 9% 76%  
106 11% 66%  
107 7% 55% Last Result
108 14% 48%  
109 5% 34%  
110 6% 29%  
111 4% 23%  
112 5% 20%  
113 4% 15%  
114 4% 10%  
115 3% 7%  
116 3% 4%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.3% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.5%  
80 1.3% 99.4%  
81 0.8% 98%  
82 3% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 4% 92% Median
85 8% 88% Majority
86 9% 80%  
87 6% 71%  
88 13% 65%  
89 5% 51% Last Result
90 8% 46%  
91 11% 38%  
92 9% 27%  
93 6% 18%  
94 7% 12%  
95 1.1% 5%  
96 0.8% 4%  
97 3% 3%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.8% 99.2%  
79 3% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 3% 92%  
82 6% 89%  
83 4% 83% Median
84 4% 79%  
85 8% 75% Majority
86 8% 67%  
87 9% 58%  
88 11% 49% Last Result
89 7% 38%  
90 8% 31%  
91 11% 23%  
92 4% 12%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.4% 2%  
97 0.8% 1.4%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 0.3% 99.4%  
77 3% 99.1%  
78 3% 96%  
79 7% 93%  
80 8% 87%  
81 5% 78% Last Result
82 4% 74% Median
83 6% 70%  
84 6% 64%  
85 12% 58% Majority
86 9% 46%  
87 6% 38%  
88 9% 32%  
89 6% 23%  
90 9% 17%  
91 3% 8%  
92 1.5% 5%  
93 1.1% 4%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 1.0% 1.4%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 98.6%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 1.5% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 9% 92%  
80 6% 83%  
81 9% 77% Median
82 6% 68%  
83 9% 62%  
84 12% 54%  
85 6% 42% Majority
86 6% 36%  
87 4% 30%  
88 5% 26% Last Result
89 8% 22%  
90 7% 13%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.3% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.7% 99.4%  
74 0.5% 98.7%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 6% 92%  
78 12% 85%  
79 8% 74%  
80 5% 66% Last Result, Median
81 3% 61%  
82 8% 58%  
83 9% 50%  
84 8% 41%  
85 5% 33% Majority
86 10% 28%  
87 4% 18%  
88 9% 14%  
89 3% 6%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.4% 1.5%  
92 0.2% 1.1%  
93 0.6% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.7%  
72 3% 99.3%  
73 0.8% 97%  
74 1.1% 96%  
75 7% 95%  
76 6% 88%  
77 9% 82%  
78 11% 73%  
79 8% 62% Median
80 5% 54% Last Result
81 13% 49%  
82 6% 35%  
83 9% 29%  
84 8% 20%  
85 4% 12% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 1.0% 99.2%  
71 1.1% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 95%  
74 3% 92%  
75 5% 89%  
76 13% 85%  
77 11% 72%  
78 7% 61% Median
79 13% 54%  
80 7% 41% Last Result
81 6% 34%  
82 8% 28%  
83 3% 20%  
84 3% 17%  
85 5% 14% Majority
86 3% 10%  
87 3% 6%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.5% 1.1%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.7% 99.1%  
71 6% 98%  
72 1.4% 92%  
73 4% 91%  
74 9% 86%  
75 8% 77%  
76 13% 68%  
77 8% 56% Median
78 8% 47%  
79 11% 40% Last Result
80 7% 29%  
81 8% 22%  
82 6% 14%  
83 1.2% 8%  
84 4% 7%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 98.8%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 4% 97%  
69 4% 94%  
70 6% 90%  
71 6% 85%  
72 6% 78% Last Result
73 9% 72%  
74 13% 63%  
75 12% 49% Median
76 10% 37%  
77 8% 27%  
78 4% 19%  
79 7% 15%  
80 4% 8%  
81 1.1% 4%  
82 0.6% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 1.1% 99.1%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 2% 91%  
69 6% 89%  
70 4% 83% Median
71 5% 80%  
72 6% 75%  
73 9% 69%  
74 13% 59%  
75 5% 47%  
76 8% 41%  
77 15% 33% Last Result
78 6% 18%  
79 3% 12%  
80 3% 9%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 99.0%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 4% 94%  
65 9% 90%  
66 6% 81%  
67 10% 76% Median
68 10% 66%  
69 10% 56%  
70 10% 46%  
71 9% 36%  
72 6% 28%  
73 5% 21%  
74 7% 16%  
75 5% 10%  
76 1.3% 4% Last Result
77 0.7% 3%  
78 0.4% 2%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 6% 99.0%  
59 2% 93%  
60 4% 91%  
61 11% 88%  
62 8% 77%  
63 6% 68%  
64 13% 62% Median
65 15% 49%  
66 5% 34%  
67 11% 29%  
68 7% 18% Last Result
69 3% 12%  
70 2% 9%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 3% 99.3%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 4% 90%  
57 5% 85%  
58 4% 80%  
59 6% 77% Median
60 5% 71%  
61 14% 66%  
62 7% 52% Last Result
63 11% 45%  
64 9% 33%  
65 5% 24%  
66 4% 19%  
67 7% 15%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.4% 5%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.8%  
52 0.8% 99.8%  
53 0.8% 99.0%  
54 7% 98%  
55 3% 91%  
56 4% 88%  
57 10% 84% Median
58 4% 74%  
59 9% 70%  
60 10% 61%  
61 9% 51% Last Result
62 5% 42%  
63 15% 37%  
64 3% 23%  
65 5% 19%  
66 6% 14%  
67 5% 8%  
68 0.7% 3%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.7% 99.4%  
48 1.4% 98.7%  
49 2% 97%  
50 10% 95%  
51 10% 85%  
52 11% 76%  
53 9% 65%  
54 14% 56% Median
55 7% 41%  
56 11% 35%  
57 8% 24%  
58 4% 16%  
59 7% 11%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.7% 1.2%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.9% 99.7%  
25 1.3% 98.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 3% 94%  
28 5% 91%  
29 10% 85% Median
30 7% 76%  
31 10% 69%  
32 6% 59%  
33 11% 54%  
34 9% 43%  
35 6% 34% Last Result
36 5% 28%  
37 9% 22%  
38 3% 14%  
39 1.1% 11%  
40 5% 10%  
41 3% 5%  
42 0.4% 1.4%  
43 0.6% 1.0%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations