Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 15–16 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.1% 23.4–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.8–28.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.9% 13.7–18.3% 13.1–19.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Rødt 2.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 46–53 45–54 44–56 42–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–50 42–50 41–51 39–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–32 26–33 25–33 24–35
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–14 10–14 9–15 9–16
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–3 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 1.1% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96% Last Result
46 7% 94%  
47 11% 87%  
48 25% 75%  
49 16% 50% Median
50 10% 35%  
51 5% 25%  
52 8% 20%  
53 5% 12%  
54 3% 8%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 4% 97%  
43 9% 93%  
44 10% 83%  
45 8% 74%  
46 13% 66%  
47 16% 53% Median
48 20% 37%  
49 5% 17% Last Result
50 9% 12%  
51 2% 3%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.2% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.5%  
26 8% 96%  
27 13% 88% Last Result
28 19% 74%  
29 15% 55% Median
30 14% 39%  
31 13% 26%  
32 6% 13%  
33 4% 7%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.8% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 99.2%  
17 6% 98%  
18 16% 91%  
19 23% 75% Last Result
20 17% 53% Median
21 16% 36%  
22 13% 20%  
23 3% 7%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.1% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 17% 96%  
11 32% 79% Last Result, Median
12 18% 47%  
13 13% 29%  
14 12% 16%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 12% 100%  
3 9% 88%  
4 0.5% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0% 79%  
7 6% 79%  
8 46% 73% Last Result, Median
9 13% 27%  
10 11% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 38% 98%  
2 5% 60%  
3 47% 55% Median
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 3% 9%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 46% 99.7% Last Result
2 44% 54% Median
3 3% 10%  
4 0.2% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 3% 6%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 71% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.3% 0.5%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 108 100% 104–112 102–113 102–114 99–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 89 97% 86–94 85–95 84–97 81–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 89% 84–92 83–93 82–94 80–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 85 61% 81–89 80–90 78–92 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 82 18% 79–86 78–88 76–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 82 11% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 8% 76–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 7% 75–84 74–85 72–86 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 3% 75–83 74–84 72–85 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 2% 74–82 73–83 71–84 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 67–75 66–76 65–77 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–72 64–74 63–75 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 62–69 61–70 60–71 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 61 0% 57–65 56–67 55–67 54–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 59 0% 55–63 54–65 52–65 50–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–61 53–63 52–64 51–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 25–34 24–34 22–36 21–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 1.3% 99.5%  
101 0.6% 98%  
102 4% 98%  
103 2% 93%  
104 4% 91%  
105 7% 87%  
106 17% 80%  
107 8% 63% Last Result
108 15% 54%  
109 14% 39% Median
110 7% 25%  
111 6% 18%  
112 5% 12%  
113 4% 7%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.5% 1.0%  
116 0.3% 0.5%  
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.6% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 0.6% 98.7%  
84 1.4% 98%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 6% 93%  
87 6% 87%  
88 14% 81%  
89 19% 67% Last Result
90 13% 48%  
91 9% 35% Median
92 7% 26%  
93 6% 18%  
94 5% 12%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.5% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 1.2% 99.5%  
81 0.6% 98%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 3% 92%  
85 9% 89% Majority
86 14% 80%  
87 17% 66%  
88 9% 49% Last Result
89 13% 39% Median
90 6% 26%  
91 6% 20%  
92 6% 14%  
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 1.1% 1.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.5%  
78 2% 99.0%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95% Last Result
81 2% 91%  
82 3% 89%  
83 7% 86%  
84 18% 78%  
85 11% 61% Majority
86 18% 50% Median
87 10% 31%  
88 7% 21%  
89 6% 13%  
90 3% 8%  
91 1.4% 4%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.5% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.7%  
95 0.5% 0.5%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 0.4% 99.1%  
76 2% 98.7%  
77 2% 97%  
78 4% 95%  
79 7% 92%  
80 8% 85%  
81 14% 77%  
82 15% 63%  
83 18% 48% Median
84 12% 30%  
85 5% 18% Majority
86 4% 13%  
87 1.3% 10%  
88 4% 8% Last Result
89 2% 4%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 1.1% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 98.7%  
75 2% 98%  
76 4% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 6% 86%  
79 6% 80%  
80 13% 74%  
81 9% 61% Last Result, Median
82 17% 51%  
83 14% 34%  
84 9% 20%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 4% 8%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 0.9% 99.5%  
73 1.3% 98.6%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 6% 91%  
77 8% 85%  
78 5% 77%  
79 14% 72%  
80 19% 58% Last Result, Median
81 9% 39%  
82 11% 30%  
83 9% 19%  
84 2% 10%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98% Last Result
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 96%  
75 5% 92%  
76 20% 87%  
77 19% 66%  
78 14% 48% Median
79 9% 33%  
80 5% 24%  
81 3% 19%  
82 3% 16%  
83 1.5% 12%  
84 4% 11%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.2%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 5% 93%  
76 6% 88%  
77 7% 82%  
78 9% 74%  
79 13% 65% Median
80 19% 52% Last Result
81 14% 33%  
82 6% 19%  
83 6% 13%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.4% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.6% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.7%  
71 2% 98.9%  
72 2% 97%  
73 4% 95%  
74 5% 92%  
75 7% 87%  
76 8% 80%  
77 8% 72%  
78 25% 64% Median
79 8% 39% Last Result
80 15% 31%  
81 4% 16%  
82 6% 12%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.9% 1.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.4%  
64 0.6% 99.0%  
65 3% 98%  
66 4% 96%  
67 4% 92%  
68 12% 88%  
69 11% 76%  
70 15% 65%  
71 9% 50%  
72 16% 41% Median
73 11% 25%  
74 4% 15%  
75 5% 11%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4% Last Result
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.3%  
62 0.9% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 93%  
66 10% 88%  
67 11% 78%  
68 9% 66%  
69 15% 58%  
70 15% 43% Median
71 15% 28%  
72 5% 13%  
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
77 0.3% 0.8%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.4% 99.7%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 3% 93%  
63 8% 90%  
64 9% 82%  
65 9% 72%  
66 11% 63%  
67 13% 52% Median
68 19% 39% Last Result
69 10% 20%  
70 6% 10%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.5%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 4% 97%  
57 5% 93%  
58 6% 88%  
59 7% 82%  
60 14% 75%  
61 15% 61% Median
62 8% 46% Last Result
63 17% 37%  
64 7% 20%  
65 4% 13%  
66 2% 9%  
67 4% 7%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 1.0% 96%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 6% 88%  
57 10% 82%  
58 21% 72%  
59 21% 51%  
60 6% 31% Median
61 4% 24% Last Result
62 5% 20%  
63 6% 15%  
64 4% 9%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.6%  
52 2% 98.9%  
53 3% 97%  
54 6% 94%  
55 6% 88%  
56 9% 82%  
57 12% 73%  
58 16% 61% Median
59 18% 45%  
60 8% 27% Last Result
61 10% 20%  
62 3% 10%  
63 2% 7%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 0.6% 99.6%  
22 2% 98.9%  
23 2% 97%  
24 3% 95%  
25 6% 92%  
26 4% 86%  
27 8% 82%  
28 5% 74%  
29 11% 69%  
30 19% 58%  
31 11% 39% Median
32 9% 28%  
33 9% 20%  
34 6% 11%  
35 2% 5% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.4%  
38 0.4% 0.7%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations