Opinion Poll by Sentio, 13–19 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.6% 24.6–28.8% 24.0–29.5% 23.5–30.0% 22.5–31.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.2% 21.3–25.4% 20.7–26.0% 20.3–26.5% 19.4–27.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.8% 14.1–17.6% 13.7–18.2% 13.3–18.7% 12.5–19.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.8% 10.4–13.5% 10.0–14.0% 9.6–14.4% 9.0–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.2% 4.9–9.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.5–6.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–52 43–53 42–55 40–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 39–46 38–47 37–49 34–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–32 24–33 24–34 22–36
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–24 18–25 17–26 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 9–17 9–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.5%  
41 1.1% 99.3%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 6% 91%  
45 9% 85% Last Result
46 10% 76%  
47 15% 65%  
48 13% 51% Median
49 7% 38%  
50 11% 31%  
51 5% 20%  
52 6% 15%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.1%  
57 0.1% 0.6%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.5% 99.3%  
36 0.9% 98.8%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 6% 92%  
40 9% 86%  
41 14% 77%  
42 13% 64%  
43 16% 51% Median
44 10% 35%  
45 12% 25%  
46 6% 13%  
47 3% 7%  
48 1.4% 4%  
49 0.8% 3% Last Result
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 0.9% 99.3%  
24 3% 98%  
25 6% 95%  
26 10% 89%  
27 16% 79% Last Result
28 14% 63% Median
29 12% 49%  
30 14% 37%  
31 6% 24%  
32 9% 17%  
33 4% 8%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.6% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.8%  
17 4% 99.0%  
18 9% 95%  
19 11% 86% Last Result
20 23% 76%  
21 14% 53% Median
22 14% 39%  
23 12% 25%  
24 4% 13%  
25 5% 9%  
26 2% 4%  
27 0.8% 2%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 4% 97%  
11 13% 93% Last Result
12 25% 80%  
13 16% 55% Median
14 15% 39%  
15 17% 24%  
16 3% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 4% 99.8%  
2 3% 96%  
3 31% 92%  
4 0% 61%  
5 0% 61%  
6 0% 61%  
7 7% 61%  
8 27% 54% Last Result, Median
9 17% 27%  
10 7% 10%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 51% 97% Median
3 0% 46%  
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0.1% 46%  
7 7% 46%  
8 26% 39%  
9 8% 13%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 1.4% 99.9%  
2 68% 98% Median
3 5% 31%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 8% 26%  
8 12% 19% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 67% 90% Last Result, Median
2 20% 22%  
3 0.6% 2%  
4 0.1% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.8% 2%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 108 100% 102–113 100–114 99–115 97–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 75% 81–93 79–95 79–95 78–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 87 69% 80–92 78–93 77–94 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 31% 77–89 76–91 75–92 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 46% 79–89 78–90 76–91 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 25% 76–88 74–90 74–90 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 14% 75–86 73–86 72–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 5% 73–83 72–84 71–86 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 3% 71–82 69–84 69–86 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 4% 72–82 71–83 70–85 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 66–75 65–77 63–78 61–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–74 64–76 62–77 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–68 58–71 57–73 55–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 52–63 50–65 50–66 48–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 51–60 50–61 49–62 46–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 26–36 24–38 23–39 22–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.3% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.6%  
98 1.0% 99.2%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 96%  
101 3% 93%  
102 3% 90%  
103 4% 87%  
104 8% 83%  
105 8% 75%  
106 7% 67%  
107 8% 59% Last Result, Median
108 6% 51%  
109 16% 45%  
110 7% 29%  
111 5% 22%  
112 4% 17%  
113 6% 13%  
114 2% 7%  
115 2% 4%  
116 0.6% 2%  
117 1.0% 2%  
118 0.3% 0.5%  
119 0.2% 0.2%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.8% 99.6%  
79 5% 98.8%  
80 3% 94%  
81 3% 91%  
82 5% 88%  
83 5% 83%  
84 3% 78%  
85 5% 75% Majority
86 5% 69%  
87 9% 65% Median
88 10% 56%  
89 5% 46% Last Result
90 16% 40%  
91 5% 24%  
92 6% 19%  
93 5% 13%  
94 3% 9%  
95 4% 5%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 3% 99.3%  
78 3% 96%  
79 2% 93%  
80 3% 91%  
81 6% 88%  
82 3% 81%  
83 5% 78%  
84 4% 73%  
85 5% 69% Majority
86 10% 64% Median
87 9% 54%  
88 7% 45% Last Result
89 16% 38%  
90 4% 22%  
91 5% 18%  
92 6% 13%  
93 1.5% 6%  
94 3% 5%  
95 0.6% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.7%  
74 0.6% 99.0%  
75 3% 98%  
76 1.5% 95%  
77 6% 94%  
78 5% 87%  
79 4% 82%  
80 16% 78% Median
81 7% 62% Last Result
82 9% 55%  
83 10% 46%  
84 5% 36%  
85 4% 31% Majority
86 5% 27%  
87 3% 22%  
88 6% 19%  
89 3% 12%  
90 2% 9%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 1.2% 99.3%  
76 0.6% 98%  
77 1.4% 97%  
78 5% 96%  
79 4% 91%  
80 3% 88%  
81 10% 85%  
82 8% 75%  
83 11% 67%  
84 10% 56%  
85 7% 46% Majority
86 13% 40% Median
87 13% 27%  
88 4% 14% Last Result
89 4% 11%  
90 4% 7%  
91 1.3% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.5%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.6%  
73 0.8% 98.9%  
74 4% 98%  
75 3% 95%  
76 5% 91%  
77 6% 87%  
78 5% 81%  
79 16% 76% Median
80 5% 60% Last Result
81 10% 54%  
82 9% 44%  
83 5% 35%  
84 5% 31%  
85 3% 25% Majority
86 5% 22%  
87 5% 17%  
88 3% 12%  
89 3% 9%  
90 5% 6%  
91 0.8% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 1.3% 99.1%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 4% 95%  
75 4% 91%  
76 5% 87%  
77 6% 81%  
78 11% 75% Median
79 6% 65%  
80 15% 59% Last Result
81 11% 44%  
82 5% 33%  
83 8% 28%  
84 6% 19%  
85 3% 14% Majority
86 5% 10%  
87 0.6% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 1.0% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 98.5%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 6% 94%  
74 7% 88%  
75 10% 81%  
76 7% 71%  
77 10% 64%  
78 19% 54% Median
79 6% 36%  
80 9% 30% Last Result
81 6% 21%  
82 3% 15%  
83 3% 12%  
84 4% 9%  
85 0.8% 5% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.1%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 2% 99.3%  
69 3% 98%  
70 1.5% 95%  
71 4% 93%  
72 7% 90% Last Result
73 6% 83%  
74 7% 76%  
75 9% 70%  
76 12% 60% Median
77 7% 48%  
78 11% 41%  
79 11% 30%  
80 3% 18%  
81 4% 15%  
82 4% 11%  
83 1.3% 7%  
84 3% 6%  
85 0.2% 3% Majority
86 0.9% 3%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.2%  
69 0.6% 98%  
70 1.3% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 7% 93%  
73 8% 86%  
74 8% 78%  
75 8% 70%  
76 10% 61%  
77 16% 52% Median
78 7% 35%  
79 8% 28% Last Result
80 5% 20%  
81 3% 14%  
82 5% 11%  
83 2% 6%  
84 0.6% 4%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.2%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 1.4% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 4% 94%  
67 5% 90%  
68 7% 85%  
69 11% 78%  
70 7% 67%  
71 17% 60%  
72 12% 43%  
73 6% 31% Median
74 6% 25%  
75 11% 19%  
76 2% 9%  
77 4% 7% Last Result
78 0.9% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 1.0%  
82 0.5% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.0%  
62 2% 98.5%  
63 1.3% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 5% 94%  
66 5% 89%  
67 7% 84%  
68 10% 77%  
69 11% 67%  
70 19% 57%  
71 8% 38%  
72 8% 30% Median
73 6% 22%  
74 8% 16%  
75 2% 8%  
76 4% 6% Last Result
77 0.6% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.9%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 2% 97%  
59 6% 95%  
60 5% 89%  
61 10% 83%  
62 17% 73%  
63 12% 56%  
64 6% 44% Median
65 13% 39%  
66 6% 25%  
67 8% 19%  
68 2% 11% Last Result
69 3% 9%  
70 1.1% 6%  
71 2% 5%  
72 0.7% 3%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.5%  
49 1.3% 99.3%  
50 4% 98%  
51 3% 94%  
52 4% 91%  
53 6% 87%  
54 6% 81%  
55 6% 75%  
56 6% 69%  
57 11% 64%  
58 9% 53% Median
59 10% 44%  
60 7% 34%  
61 6% 27% Last Result
62 7% 21%  
63 6% 14%  
64 2% 8%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.7% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.6%  
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 1.4% 98.9%  
49 2% 98%  
50 4% 96%  
51 3% 92%  
52 6% 88%  
53 10% 82%  
54 8% 73%  
55 10% 65%  
56 10% 54% Median
57 18% 44%  
58 8% 25%  
59 7% 17%  
60 5% 10% Last Result
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 1.0% 99.7%  
23 1.4% 98.8%  
24 3% 97%  
25 2% 95%  
26 6% 92%  
27 5% 87%  
28 10% 82%  
29 5% 72%  
30 12% 67%  
31 13% 55% Median
32 10% 42%  
33 7% 32%  
34 8% 25%  
35 4% 17% Last Result
36 3% 12%  
37 4% 10%  
38 3% 6%  
39 1.5% 3%  
40 0.6% 1.3%  
41 0.3% 0.7%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations