Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 19–21 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 23.9% 22.1–25.7% 21.6–26.2% 21.2–26.7% 20.4–27.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.6% 21.9–25.5% 21.4–26.0% 21.0–26.5% 20.2–27.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 20.7% 19.1–22.5% 18.7–23.0% 18.3–23.5% 17.5–24.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–9.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.3–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–48 40–49 39–50 37–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 39 35–41 34–42 33–44 32–45
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–15 9–15 9–17
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 1.1% 99.3%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 8% 91%  
42 10% 83%  
43 12% 73%  
44 14% 61% Median
45 14% 46% Last Result
46 8% 33%  
47 13% 25%  
48 5% 12%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 6% 96%  
41 9% 90%  
42 10% 81%  
43 11% 71%  
44 13% 59% Median
45 17% 47%  
46 9% 30%  
47 8% 21%  
48 7% 13%  
49 3% 6% Last Result
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100% Last Result
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 4% 97%  
35 8% 93%  
36 11% 85%  
37 6% 74%  
38 13% 68%  
39 21% 55% Median
40 18% 34%  
41 8% 17%  
42 4% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 6% 97%  
17 11% 91%  
18 27% 80%  
19 18% 53% Last Result, Median
20 18% 35%  
21 10% 17%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 1.1% 1.3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 6% 97%  
11 15% 91% Last Result
12 22% 76%  
13 30% 54% Median
14 13% 23%  
15 8% 10%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 13% 99.7%  
2 25% 87%  
3 28% 62% Median
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0% 33%  
7 4% 33%  
8 20% 29% Last Result
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 13% 100% Last Result
2 70% 87% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 7% 17%  
8 7% 10%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 79% 96% Median
3 5% 17%  
4 0.8% 12%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 3% 11%  
8 7% 8% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 77% 87% Last Result, Median
2 9% 10%  
3 0.8% 1.0%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 108 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 99–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 98% 86–95 85–96 85–98 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 90 94% 85–94 84–96 83–96 80–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 85 57% 80–90 79–91 78–92 76–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 82 33% 78–87 76–89 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 80 18% 76–85 75–87 74–88 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 79 6% 75–84 73–85 73–85 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 2% 74–83 73–84 71–84 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 0.6% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.3% 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 68 0% 64–73 63–75 61–76 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 63–72 62–74 60–75 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–68 58–68 57–69 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 61 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–62 49–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 47–56 45–57 44–58 43–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 25 0% 22–31 21–32 20–34 19–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.5% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.4%  
101 1.4% 99.1%  
102 1.4% 98%  
103 2% 96%  
104 5% 94%  
105 10% 89%  
106 6% 79%  
107 8% 73% Last Result, Median
108 17% 65%  
109 14% 48%  
110 6% 34%  
111 11% 28%  
112 7% 17%  
113 3% 10%  
114 4% 7%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.9% 1.4%  
117 0.4% 0.6%  
118 0.2% 0.2%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.4%  
83 0.6% 99.1%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 4% 98% Majority
86 8% 94%  
87 6% 86%  
88 9% 80%  
89 9% 71% Last Result, Median
90 10% 62%  
91 15% 53%  
92 8% 38%  
93 10% 30%  
94 7% 20%  
95 5% 13%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.4% 1.0%  
100 0.5% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.4% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.1%  
83 1.1% 98.5%  
84 4% 97%  
85 7% 94% Majority
86 7% 87%  
87 9% 80%  
88 10% 71% Last Result, Median
89 9% 62%  
90 14% 53%  
91 10% 39%  
92 10% 30%  
93 7% 20%  
94 4% 12%  
95 3% 8%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.4% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.0%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 2% 98.7%  
79 3% 97%  
80 5% 94% Last Result
81 4% 90%  
82 9% 86%  
83 6% 77%  
84 14% 71%  
85 7% 57% Median, Majority
86 8% 49%  
87 12% 41%  
88 9% 29%  
89 8% 20%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.4% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 98.9%  
76 3% 98%  
77 3% 95%  
78 5% 91%  
79 5% 86%  
80 10% 81%  
81 9% 71%  
82 13% 62%  
83 8% 50% Median
84 9% 42%  
85 9% 33% Majority
86 8% 24%  
87 8% 16%  
88 3% 9%  
89 1.4% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.7% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.7%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 0.9% 98.7%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 6% 92%  
77 5% 87%  
78 10% 82%  
79 11% 72%  
80 12% 61% Median
81 6% 49%  
82 8% 43%  
83 12% 35%  
84 6% 23%  
85 8% 18% Majority
86 3% 10%  
87 3% 7%  
88 3% 3% Last Result
89 0.4% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.5%  
72 1.4% 99.0%  
73 3% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 4% 92%  
76 7% 87%  
77 10% 80%  
78 10% 70%  
79 14% 60% Median
80 8% 47%  
81 10% 38% Last Result
82 8% 28%  
83 7% 20%  
84 7% 13%  
85 4% 6% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 95%  
74 5% 92%  
75 7% 87%  
76 10% 80%  
77 8% 70%  
78 15% 62% Median
79 10% 47%  
80 9% 37% Last Result
81 9% 28%  
82 6% 20%  
83 8% 14%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.9% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.5%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 0.9% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 5% 88%  
74 11% 83%  
75 10% 72%  
76 12% 62%  
77 12% 50% Median
78 11% 38%  
79 6% 27%  
80 8% 21% Last Result
81 4% 13%  
82 7% 10%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 0.8% 99.1%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 4% 92%  
72 6% 88%  
73 11% 82%  
74 10% 71%  
75 10% 61%  
76 13% 52% Median
77 12% 38%  
78 5% 26%  
79 8% 21% Last Result
80 3% 13%  
81 7% 10%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.3%  
61 2% 98.6%  
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 10% 85%  
66 8% 75%  
67 15% 67% Median
68 9% 53%  
69 7% 44%  
70 7% 37%  
71 10% 30%  
72 8% 20%  
73 4% 12%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 3% 3%  
77 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.8% 99.4%  
60 1.1% 98.5%  
61 2% 97%  
62 4% 95%  
63 6% 91%  
64 9% 85%  
65 9% 76%  
66 16% 68% Median
67 8% 52%  
68 8% 45%  
69 7% 37%  
70 11% 30%  
71 8% 19%  
72 3% 11%  
73 2% 8%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 1.2% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 95%  
59 6% 93%  
60 6% 87%  
61 12% 81%  
62 11% 68%  
63 19% 57% Median
64 9% 38%  
65 6% 29%  
66 6% 23%  
67 6% 17%  
68 7% 10% Last Result
69 2% 3%  
70 0.4% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.5%  
55 4% 97%  
56 3% 93%  
57 7% 90%  
58 11% 83%  
59 6% 72%  
60 14% 66% Median
61 17% 51%  
62 8% 35% Last Result
63 6% 27%  
64 10% 21%  
65 5% 11%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.4% 4%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.8%  
70 0.5% 0.5%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 1.4% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 95%  
53 8% 90%  
54 8% 83%  
55 11% 74%  
56 8% 63%  
57 14% 56% Median
58 15% 42%  
59 9% 27%  
60 3% 18% Last Result
61 9% 15%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.7%  
44 1.5% 98.9%  
45 3% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 5% 92%  
48 9% 86%  
49 8% 77% Median
50 13% 69%  
51 16% 56%  
52 7% 40%  
53 8% 33%  
54 5% 25%  
55 7% 21%  
56 6% 14%  
57 3% 8%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.3%  
61 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.8%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 4% 96%  
22 11% 92%  
23 16% 82%  
24 13% 66% Median
25 8% 53%  
26 6% 45%  
27 7% 39%  
28 7% 32%  
29 5% 25%  
30 8% 20%  
31 6% 12%  
32 3% 6%  
33 1.0% 4%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations