Opinion Poll by Norstat, 20–24 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.2% 23.1–27.7% 22.7–28.2% 21.9–29.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.7% 21.7–27.1% 20.9–28.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.4% 14.0–17.0% 13.6–17.4% 13.2–17.8% 12.6–18.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.2–13.2% 8.6–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Venstre 4.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–49 41–51 41–51 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–47 39–48 39–49 38–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–30 24–31 24–32 23–34
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 3–11 3–12
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 7 2–8 2–9 2–10 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.9% 99.6%  
40 1.1% 98.7%  
41 3% 98%  
42 7% 95%  
43 13% 88%  
44 16% 75%  
45 13% 59% Last Result, Median
46 10% 47%  
47 11% 37%  
48 6% 25%  
49 11% 20%  
50 2% 9%  
51 5% 7%  
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 5% 99.3%  
40 2% 95%  
41 7% 92%  
42 9% 86%  
43 18% 76%  
44 12% 58% Median
45 15% 46%  
46 15% 31%  
47 10% 16%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4% Last Result
50 0.7% 2%  
51 1.1% 1.5%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.6% 99.5%  
24 7% 98.9%  
25 18% 92%  
26 12% 74%  
27 9% 62% Last Result
28 12% 52% Median
29 22% 40%  
30 10% 18%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.8%  
16 3% 99.4%  
17 11% 97%  
18 20% 86%  
19 17% 66% Last Result, Median
20 16% 49%  
21 16% 33%  
22 10% 17%  
23 5% 7%  
24 1.5% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.9%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.9%  
9 4% 99.2%  
10 12% 95%  
11 29% 83% Last Result
12 21% 55% Median
13 17% 34%  
14 9% 17%  
15 6% 8%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 10% 99.6%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 8% 89%  
8 36% 82% Last Result, Median
9 22% 46%  
10 18% 24%  
11 4% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 25% 100%  
3 10% 75%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0% 65%  
7 15% 65%  
8 31% 51% Last Result, Median
9 14% 20%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.7% 0.9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 46% 98%  
3 0% 52%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0.1% 52%  
7 23% 52% Median
8 19% 29%  
9 7% 10%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 63% 77% Last Result, Median
2 14% 15%  
3 0.1% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 102–111 101–112 101–113 98–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 85% 83–93 83–93 81–95 79–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 87 79% 82–91 82–93 80–93 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 53% 81–89 79–90 77–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 21% 78–87 76–87 76–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 15% 76–86 76–86 74–88 72–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 5% 75–83 74–84 73–86 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 76 1.2% 72–81 71–82 71–83 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 1.0% 71–80 71–81 70–82 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 69–77 68–79 67–80 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.1% 69–77 68–78 66–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 68–76 66–76 65–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–67 59–68 58–70 57–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 60 0% 55–65 54–66 52–67 51–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 49–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–38 28–39 26–40 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.8%  
99 0.5% 99.3%  
100 0.9% 98.7%  
101 3% 98%  
102 5% 95%  
103 7% 89%  
104 5% 82%  
105 11% 77%  
106 11% 66%  
107 9% 55% Last Result
108 10% 46% Median
109 13% 35%  
110 3% 22%  
111 10% 19%  
112 5% 9%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.8% 1.2%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.9% 99.7%  
80 0.2% 98.8%  
81 1.2% 98.7%  
82 1.2% 97%  
83 9% 96%  
84 3% 87%  
85 6% 85% Majority
86 11% 79%  
87 9% 68%  
88 10% 59%  
89 7% 49% Last Result
90 12% 42% Median
91 9% 30%  
92 7% 21%  
93 9% 14%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.8%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 99.2%  
80 1.2% 98.5%  
81 0.7% 97%  
82 9% 97%  
83 2% 87%  
84 6% 85%  
85 7% 79% Majority
86 14% 73%  
87 9% 59%  
88 7% 50% Last Result
89 9% 42% Median
90 11% 34%  
91 14% 22%  
92 1.5% 8%  
93 4% 7%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.8% 1.4%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 1.0% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 8% 91%  
82 10% 83%  
83 9% 74%  
84 12% 65% Median
85 12% 53% Majority
86 13% 41%  
87 6% 28%  
88 6% 22% Last Result
89 8% 16%  
90 4% 8%  
91 1.2% 4%  
92 1.2% 3%  
93 1.0% 1.5%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.5%  
74 0.8% 99.3%  
75 0.9% 98.6%  
76 4% 98%  
77 2% 93%  
78 14% 92%  
79 11% 78%  
80 9% 66%  
81 7% 58% Last Result
82 9% 50%  
83 14% 41% Median
84 7% 27%  
85 6% 21% Majority
86 2% 15%  
87 9% 13%  
88 0.7% 3%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.7% 1.5%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.6%  
73 0.9% 99.2%  
74 1.0% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 9% 95%  
77 7% 86%  
78 9% 79%  
79 12% 69%  
80 7% 57% Last Result
81 10% 51%  
82 9% 41% Median
83 11% 32%  
84 5% 21%  
85 3% 15% Majority
86 9% 13%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 0.2% 1.3%  
90 0.9% 1.2%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.3%  
72 0.8% 98.9%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 7% 97%  
75 4% 90%  
76 3% 86%  
77 14% 83%  
78 12% 69%  
79 10% 57%  
80 9% 47% Last Result
81 15% 39% Median
82 6% 24%  
83 9% 17%  
84 4% 9%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.5%  
88 0.2% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.6%  
70 1.2% 99.0%  
71 3% 98%  
72 6% 95%  
73 8% 89%  
74 9% 81%  
75 7% 72%  
76 20% 65% Median
77 9% 45%  
78 8% 37%  
79 7% 29%  
80 9% 21% Last Result
81 5% 12%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.3% 1.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.9%  
87 0.8% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 1.3% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 7% 96%  
72 6% 89%  
73 8% 82%  
74 15% 74%  
75 9% 59% Median
76 12% 50%  
77 9% 38%  
78 8% 29%  
79 9% 21% Last Result
80 4% 12%  
81 3% 7%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.2% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.4%  
85 0.1% 1.0% Majority
86 0.8% 0.8%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 4% 99.0%  
68 2% 95%  
69 6% 93%  
70 11% 87%  
71 7% 76%  
72 11% 69% Last Result
73 12% 58% Median
74 18% 46%  
75 7% 28%  
76 7% 22%  
77 5% 15%  
78 3% 10%  
79 4% 7%  
80 0.5% 3%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 1.3% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 98.6%  
65 0.3% 98%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 1.2% 96%  
68 4% 95%  
69 6% 91%  
70 9% 85%  
71 9% 76%  
72 10% 67% Median
73 12% 58%  
74 12% 46%  
75 17% 33%  
76 6% 16%  
77 6% 11% Last Result
78 1.4% 5%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 1.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 98.7%  
64 0.4% 98%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 1.5% 96%  
67 2% 95%  
68 5% 93%  
69 10% 88%  
70 8% 77%  
71 11% 69% Median
72 13% 59%  
73 15% 46%  
74 14% 30%  
75 6% 17%  
76 6% 11% Last Result
77 1.4% 5%  
78 1.5% 3%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.7%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 5% 97%  
60 7% 93%  
61 10% 86%  
62 8% 76%  
63 16% 68% Median
64 16% 52%  
65 11% 37%  
66 10% 26%  
67 6% 16%  
68 5% 9% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 0.3% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.7% 0.9%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 1.4% 99.6%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 1.3% 97%  
54 5% 96%  
55 2% 91%  
56 6% 89%  
57 9% 83%  
58 11% 74%  
59 10% 64%  
60 8% 54%  
61 8% 46% Last Result, Median
62 15% 37%  
63 5% 22%  
64 3% 17%  
65 7% 14%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.2%  
69 0.5% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 4% 99.5%  
51 4% 96%  
52 4% 92%  
53 6% 87%  
54 10% 81%  
55 10% 71%  
56 17% 61% Median
57 12% 43%  
58 9% 31%  
59 11% 22%  
60 4% 11% Last Result
61 4% 7%  
62 1.5% 3%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 1.0% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 0.2% 98.9%  
26 1.3% 98.7%  
27 1.3% 97%  
28 2% 96%  
29 4% 94%  
30 5% 89%  
31 13% 84%  
32 5% 71%  
33 7% 66%  
34 13% 59%  
35 11% 46% Last Result, Median
36 11% 35%  
37 11% 25%  
38 6% 14%  
39 3% 7%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations