Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 3–4 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 22.9–30.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 17.4% 15.9–19.0% 15.5–19.5% 15.2–19.9% 14.5–20.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 43–50 42–51 42–52 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 38–44 37–46 36–48 35–48
Fremskrittspartiet 27 30 28–33 27–34 26–36 25–38
Senterpartiet 19 18 17–20 16–22 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 3–9 2–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–8 2–8 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 98.9%  
42 7% 98%  
43 7% 91%  
44 3% 84%  
45 11% 81% Last Result
46 13% 69%  
47 5% 57%  
48 3% 52% Median
49 14% 48%  
50 28% 34%  
51 3% 6%  
52 0.8% 3%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.4%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 4% 97%  
38 9% 93%  
39 5% 84%  
40 33% 79% Median
41 16% 46%  
42 14% 30%  
43 5% 17%  
44 2% 11%  
45 1.3% 9%  
46 4% 8%  
47 0.7% 4%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 3% 98%  
27 3% 95% Last Result
28 8% 92%  
29 20% 84%  
30 32% 65% Median
31 10% 32%  
32 5% 23%  
33 9% 17%  
34 5% 9%  
35 0.4% 3%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.2% 1.0%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.3%  
16 5% 96%  
17 6% 91%  
18 49% 85% Median
19 16% 36% Last Result
20 12% 20%  
21 2% 8%  
22 2% 5%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 9% 98% Last Result
12 29% 89%  
13 12% 60% Median
14 18% 48%  
15 23% 30%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100% Last Result
2 14% 98.5%  
3 0% 85%  
4 0% 85%  
5 0% 85%  
6 0% 85%  
7 12% 85%  
8 46% 73% Median
9 14% 27%  
10 9% 13%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 6% 97%  
3 45% 90% Median
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 10% 45%  
8 15% 36% Last Result
9 17% 21%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 48% 98.6%  
3 1.0% 50% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 33% 49%  
8 14% 17% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 69% 99.1% Last Result, Median
2 25% 30%  
3 1.1% 5%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 102–109 100–110 98–112 97–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 91% 85–92 84–94 82–95 78–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 88 82% 82–91 81–92 79–93 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 81 18% 78–87 77–88 76–90 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 80 19% 74–85 74–87 74–88 73–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 34% 76–87 76–87 74–88 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 9% 77–84 75–85 74–87 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 79 2% 72–82 71–82 70–83 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 73 0.4% 71–80 71–81 69–82 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 72 0.1% 70–77 69–79 68–80 67–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 66 0% 62–72 61–72 60–75 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 64 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 58–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 58 0% 56–63 55–66 54–68 53–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 52–60 49–61 48–63 46–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 48–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 25–32 23–34 22–35 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 2% 99.6%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 1.2% 95%  
101 1.3% 94%  
102 7% 93% Median
103 13% 86%  
104 10% 73%  
105 6% 63%  
106 4% 57%  
107 7% 53% Last Result
108 29% 45%  
109 9% 16%  
110 2% 7%  
111 2% 5%  
112 0.9% 3%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.2% 1.3%  
115 0.7% 1.0%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.5%  
80 0.4% 99.2%  
81 1.0% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 0.8% 96%  
84 4% 95%  
85 6% 91% Median, Majority
86 12% 85%  
87 7% 74%  
88 8% 67%  
89 7% 59% Last Result
90 5% 52%  
91 30% 47%  
92 10% 17%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.2%  
98 0.1% 0.5%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.5% 99.2%  
79 1.4% 98.7%  
80 1.3% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 5% 94%  
83 3% 89%  
84 5% 86% Median
85 14% 82% Majority
86 7% 68%  
87 9% 61%  
88 4% 52% Last Result
89 5% 48%  
90 28% 43%  
91 9% 15%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.2% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.3%  
96 0.4% 0.9%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 0.4% 99.1%  
75 0.2% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 9% 94%  
79 28% 85%  
80 5% 57% Median
81 4% 52% Last Result
82 9% 48%  
83 7% 39%  
84 14% 32%  
85 5% 18% Majority
86 3% 14%  
87 5% 11%  
88 2% 6%  
89 1.3% 4%  
90 1.4% 3%  
91 0.5% 1.3%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.5% 0.5%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 28% 99.4%  
75 2% 72% Median
76 5% 69%  
77 1.5% 65%  
78 7% 63%  
79 6% 57%  
80 11% 51%  
81 2% 39%  
82 4% 37%  
83 11% 33%  
84 3% 22%  
85 10% 19% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4% Last Result
89 2% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.4%  
73 0.8% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 1.3% 97%  
76 9% 95%  
77 5% 86%  
78 5% 81%  
79 7% 76%  
80 4% 69% Last Result
81 7% 65% Median
82 12% 58%  
83 4% 45%  
84 7% 41%  
85 2% 34% Majority
86 2% 32%  
87 27% 30%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.5%  
91 0.1% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.4% 0.4%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.6%  
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 0.5% 98.8%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 10% 93%  
78 30% 83%  
79 5% 53% Median
80 7% 48% Last Result
81 8% 41%  
82 7% 33%  
83 12% 26%  
84 6% 15%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 0.8% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.2%  
90 0.3% 0.8%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 1.0% 99.6%  
70 2% 98.6%  
71 4% 96%  
72 5% 92% Last Result
73 2% 88%  
74 13% 85%  
75 7% 72%  
76 5% 66%  
77 4% 61%  
78 2% 57% Median
79 8% 55%  
80 34% 46%  
81 0.8% 12%  
82 7% 11%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.4% 2%  
85 0.9% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.5% 0.6%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 3% 99.1%  
70 1.3% 96%  
71 35% 95%  
72 6% 60% Median
73 6% 54%  
74 2% 49%  
75 8% 46%  
76 12% 38%  
77 8% 26%  
78 4% 18%  
79 3% 14%  
80 5% 11% Last Result
81 3% 6%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 1.1% 99.6%  
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 95%  
70 35% 93%  
71 7% 57% Median
72 6% 51%  
73 5% 45%  
74 9% 40%  
75 12% 31%  
76 7% 18%  
77 2% 11%  
78 0.9% 9%  
79 6% 8% Last Result
80 0.5% 3%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.8%  
60 1.1% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 27% 94% Median
63 3% 67%  
64 7% 64%  
65 5% 57%  
66 10% 52%  
67 4% 42%  
68 6% 38%  
69 5% 32%  
70 11% 27%  
71 3% 16%  
72 8% 13%  
73 1.3% 5%  
74 0.8% 4%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 0.4% 1.5%  
77 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 26% 93% Median
62 7% 67%  
63 7% 60%  
64 6% 53%  
65 11% 47%  
66 3% 36%  
67 8% 33%  
68 3% 25%  
69 10% 22%  
70 3% 11%  
71 5% 9%  
72 0.8% 3%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.2% 1.2%  
75 1.0% 1.0%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 1.2% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 11% 95%  
57 5% 84%  
58 29% 79% Median
59 11% 50%  
60 14% 39%  
61 9% 25%  
62 4% 16%  
63 2% 12%  
64 1.3% 10%  
65 3% 9%  
66 0.6% 6%  
67 0.6% 5%  
68 4% 4% Last Result
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.4%  
48 3% 99.4%  
49 2% 96%  
50 0.8% 94%  
51 2% 93%  
52 2% 91%  
53 3% 89%  
54 6% 86% Median
55 5% 80%  
56 14% 75%  
57 9% 61%  
58 6% 52%  
59 4% 46%  
60 35% 42%  
61 3% 7% Last Result
62 0.9% 4%  
63 0.5% 3%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 0.9% 99.2%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 4% 97%  
52 38% 93%  
53 4% 55% Median
54 10% 51%  
55 10% 41%  
56 4% 31%  
57 14% 27%  
58 4% 12%  
59 4% 8%  
60 3% 4% Last Result
61 0.7% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 0.9% 99.2%  
22 1.2% 98%  
23 4% 97%  
24 2% 93% Median
25 8% 92%  
26 1.5% 83%  
27 4% 82%  
28 31% 78%  
29 25% 47%  
30 7% 21%  
31 2% 15%  
32 4% 13%  
33 3% 8%  
34 2% 5%  
35 1.0% 3% Last Result
36 0.7% 2%  
37 0.2% 1.1%  
38 0.4% 0.9%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations