Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 3–6 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.3% 24.3–28.4% 23.8–29.0% 23.3–29.5% 22.4–30.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.1% 22.2–26.2% 21.7–26.7% 21.2–27.2% 20.3–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 16.2% 14.6–18.0% 14.1–18.5% 13.8–19.0% 13.0–19.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 8.9% 7.7–10.4% 7.4–10.8% 7.1–11.2% 6.6–11.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.7% 7.5–10.1% 7.2–10.5% 6.9–10.9% 6.4–11.6%
Rødt 2.4% 5.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.3–7.0% 4.1–7.3% 3.6–7.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 42–50 42–51 41–53 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–47 39–48 39–49 37–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 27–32 26–33 25–34 23–35
Senterpartiet 19 16 13–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 13–18 13–19 12–19 11–21
Rødt 1 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–9 1–9 1–10 0–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–8
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.6%  
41 2% 98.6%  
42 8% 97%  
43 6% 89%  
44 11% 83%  
45 14% 72% Last Result
46 8% 57% Median
47 17% 49%  
48 15% 32%  
49 4% 17%  
50 5% 13%  
51 3% 7%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.3% 1.0%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.2%  
39 4% 98%  
40 5% 95%  
41 12% 90%  
42 8% 78%  
43 15% 70%  
44 14% 55% Median
45 18% 40%  
46 7% 22%  
47 8% 15%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4% Last Result
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.9%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.5%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 4% 96%  
27 15% 91% Last Result
28 13% 76%  
29 17% 62% Median
30 19% 46%  
31 9% 26%  
32 10% 18%  
33 4% 8%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 14% 98%  
14 14% 84%  
15 14% 69%  
16 25% 55% Median
17 17% 30%  
18 5% 13%  
19 4% 8% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.5% 1.0%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
12 3% 99.2%  
13 8% 96%  
14 14% 88%  
15 15% 74%  
16 22% 59% Median
17 17% 37%  
18 13% 20%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.7%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 11% 96%  
9 27% 85%  
10 23% 58% Median
11 17% 35%  
12 11% 17%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.9% 1.2%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 8% 99.4%  
2 10% 91%  
3 35% 81% Median
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0% 47%  
7 10% 47%  
8 26% 36% Last Result
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 72% 93% Last Result, Median
2 18% 21%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 0.1% 2%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 18% 98.6%  
2 76% 81% Median
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 94–102 93–104 92–105 90–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 70% 82–91 81–92 80–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 59% 81–90 80–91 78–92 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 83 41% 79–88 78–89 77–91 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 82 30% 78–87 77–88 76–89 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 81 23% 77–86 76–86 75–88 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 3% 73–82 72–84 72–85 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 0.7% 73–81 72–83 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 0.5% 72–80 70–81 70–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.2% 71–79 71–81 69–82 67–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 66 0% 61–70 60–71 59–73 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 64 0% 59–69 58–70 58–71 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 59 0% 56–63 55–64 54–66 52–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–63 55–65 54–66 52–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 48–58 48–59 46–60 45–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 23 0% 18–27 18–28 17–29 15–32

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 1.4% 99.1%  
92 2% 98%  
93 4% 96%  
94 3% 92%  
95 11% 89%  
96 9% 78% Median
97 9% 69%  
98 11% 60%  
99 10% 49%  
100 17% 39%  
101 7% 22%  
102 6% 15%  
103 2% 9%  
104 3% 6%  
105 1.4% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.8% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.0%  
79 0.8% 98.6%  
80 1.2% 98%  
81 3% 97% Last Result
82 12% 94%  
83 5% 82%  
84 7% 77%  
85 8% 70% Majority
86 8% 62%  
87 19% 54% Median
88 9% 34%  
89 9% 26%  
90 4% 17%  
91 5% 13%  
92 4% 8%  
93 3% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.9% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 98.8%  
78 1.0% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 2% 95% Last Result
81 12% 93%  
82 6% 81%  
83 6% 74%  
84 10% 68%  
85 8% 59% Majority
86 19% 50% Median
87 8% 31%  
88 8% 23%  
89 3% 16%  
90 5% 12%  
91 4% 7%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.7% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.4%  
77 2% 98.7%  
78 4% 97%  
79 5% 93%  
80 3% 88%  
81 8% 84% Median
82 8% 77%  
83 19% 69%  
84 8% 50%  
85 10% 41% Majority
86 6% 32%  
87 6% 26%  
88 12% 19%  
89 2% 7% Last Result
90 2% 5%  
91 1.0% 3%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.9% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 99.2%  
76 3% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 5% 92%  
79 4% 87%  
80 9% 83% Median
81 9% 74%  
82 19% 66%  
83 8% 46%  
84 8% 38%  
85 7% 30% Majority
86 5% 23%  
87 12% 18%  
88 3% 6% Last Result
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.8% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 0.6% 99.3%  
74 0.4% 98.7%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 4% 92%  
78 8% 88%  
79 6% 80%  
80 15% 74% Median
81 12% 60%  
82 8% 48%  
83 10% 40%  
84 7% 30%  
85 5% 23% Majority
86 13% 18%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.2% 3% Last Result
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.7% 99.3%  
71 1.0% 98.6%  
72 4% 98%  
73 6% 94%  
74 12% 88%  
75 6% 76%  
76 9% 70%  
77 8% 61% Median
78 8% 53%  
79 18% 45%  
80 9% 26% Last Result
81 5% 18%  
82 5% 12%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 1.4%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.8% 99.5%  
70 1.5% 98.7%  
71 1.4% 97%  
72 4% 96%  
73 15% 92%  
74 8% 77%  
75 11% 69%  
76 5% 58%  
77 11% 52% Median
78 18% 41%  
79 5% 23%  
80 7% 17% Last Result
81 2% 10%  
82 3% 8%  
83 4% 5%  
84 0.8% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.7% 99.5%  
69 1.1% 98.8%  
70 4% 98%  
71 4% 94%  
72 15% 90% Last Result
73 6% 75%  
74 9% 69%  
75 8% 60% Median
76 8% 52%  
77 19% 44%  
78 10% 26%  
79 6% 16%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 7%  
82 1.0% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.9% 1.5%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 99.3%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 5% 95%  
72 14% 90%  
73 9% 76%  
74 11% 66%  
75 7% 55%  
76 12% 49% Median
77 16% 37%  
78 4% 21%  
79 8% 17% Last Result
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.5%  
57 0.4% 99.4%  
58 0.7% 99.0%  
59 3% 98%  
60 5% 95%  
61 3% 90%  
62 8% 87%  
63 7% 79%  
64 8% 73% Median
65 13% 65%  
66 9% 52%  
67 11% 43%  
68 7% 32%  
69 11% 25%  
70 5% 15%  
71 6% 10%  
72 1.3% 4%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.5%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.2%  
57 0.6% 98.7%  
58 3% 98%  
59 5% 95%  
60 5% 90%  
61 7% 85%  
62 6% 78%  
63 10% 72% Median
64 12% 62%  
65 9% 49%  
66 10% 40%  
67 7% 30%  
68 10% 23%  
69 5% 13%  
70 5% 8%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 0.6% 98.8%  
54 2% 98%  
55 6% 97%  
56 12% 91%  
57 6% 79%  
58 14% 73%  
59 9% 59%  
60 17% 50% Median
61 8% 33%  
62 8% 25%  
63 8% 17%  
64 5% 9%  
65 2% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 0.7% 99.1%  
54 3% 98%  
55 3% 96%  
56 7% 93%  
57 10% 86%  
58 11% 76%  
59 15% 65%  
60 14% 50% Last Result, Median
61 10% 36%  
62 11% 26%  
63 7% 16%  
64 3% 9%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.9% 1.2%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.8%  
46 1.3% 98.8%  
47 2% 97%  
48 6% 95%  
49 7% 90%  
50 3% 82%  
51 7% 80% Median
52 17% 72%  
53 8% 56%  
54 7% 47%  
55 11% 40%  
56 5% 29%  
57 8% 23%  
58 9% 15%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 2% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 1.0% 99.5%  
17 3% 98%  
18 7% 95%  
19 8% 88%  
20 7% 80%  
21 10% 73% Median
22 11% 63%  
23 12% 52%  
24 6% 40%  
25 9% 34%  
26 12% 26%  
27 7% 13%  
28 2% 6%  
29 2% 4%  
30 0.7% 2%  
31 0.4% 1.0%  
32 0.3% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations