Opinion Poll by Norstat, 3–9 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.2% 23.4–27.1% 22.9–27.6% 22.5–28.1% 21.7–29.0%
Høyre 25.0% 25.1% 23.3–27.0% 22.8–27.5% 22.4–28.0% 21.6–28.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.8% 14.3–17.4% 13.9–17.9% 13.6–18.3% 12.9–19.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.9% 8.3–13.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.4–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–50 42–52 41–53 40–54
Høyre 45 46 42–50 42–51 41–52 39–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–32 25–33 25–34 24–35
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–23 17–23 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 4% 97%  
43 10% 94%  
44 8% 83%  
45 12% 75%  
46 13% 63%  
47 19% 50% Median
48 13% 32%  
49 4% 19% Last Result
50 6% 14%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.6%  
40 1.1% 98.9%  
41 2% 98%  
42 8% 96%  
43 6% 88%  
44 10% 82%  
45 11% 72% Last Result
46 14% 60% Median
47 13% 46%  
48 9% 33%  
49 6% 24%  
50 12% 19%  
51 4% 7%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.8%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 5% 98.6%  
26 4% 94%  
27 10% 90% Last Result
28 23% 80%  
29 15% 56% Median
30 9% 41%  
31 15% 32%  
32 11% 18%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.9%  
16 3% 98%  
17 8% 96%  
18 15% 88%  
19 25% 73% Last Result, Median
20 18% 48%  
21 9% 30%  
22 11% 21%  
23 6% 10%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 6% 98% Last Result
12 20% 92%  
13 18% 73%  
14 21% 54% Median
15 19% 34%  
16 7% 15%  
17 6% 8%  
18 1.0% 1.4%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 61% 96% Median
3 0% 35%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0% 35%  
7 5% 35%  
8 17% 31%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 61% 99.5% Median
3 3% 39%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0% 35%  
7 9% 35%  
8 21% 26% Last Result
9 3% 5%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 13% 99.6%  
2 6% 87%  
3 52% 81% Median
4 0% 30%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0% 30%  
7 4% 30%  
8 21% 25% Last Result
9 3% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 81% 95% Last Result, Median
2 12% 13%  
3 0.7% 2%  
4 0.3% 0.9%  
5 0% 0.7%  
6 0% 0.7%  
7 0.4% 0.7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 104 100% 98–109 97–109 96–110 94–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 54% 80–91 79–92 78–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 85 58% 80–91 79–92 78–93 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 43% 79–89 77–90 77–92 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 57% 80–90 79–92 77–92 76–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 84 42% 78–89 77–90 76–91 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 18% 76–85 75–87 74–89 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 8% 75–84 74–86 73–88 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 12% 75–85 73–86 72–87 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 0.6% 70–80 70–81 68–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 67–76 65–77 65–79 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–75 64–76 64–78 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–70 61–72 60–73 58–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–67 53–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–60 49–61 47–62 46–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 23–32 22–34 21–35 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.7%  
95 1.0% 99.4%  
96 1.0% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 6% 95%  
99 6% 89% Median
100 8% 84%  
101 6% 76%  
102 8% 69%  
103 10% 61%  
104 10% 52%  
105 13% 42%  
106 7% 29%  
107 5% 21% Last Result
108 7% 17%  
109 6% 10%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.4% 2%  
112 0.6% 0.8%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 1.4% 99.4%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 4% 94%  
81 7% 89%  
82 11% 82%  
83 6% 71%  
84 12% 66% Median
85 7% 54% Majority
86 11% 46%  
87 7% 35%  
88 7% 28% Last Result
89 6% 21%  
90 5% 15%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 1.4%  
95 0.1% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.5% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 0.7% 98.9%  
78 3% 98%  
79 3% 95%  
80 4% 92%  
81 5% 88% Last Result
82 5% 84%  
83 12% 79% Median
84 10% 67%  
85 15% 58% Majority
86 6% 43%  
87 10% 37%  
88 10% 28%  
89 5% 18%  
90 3% 13%  
91 5% 10%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 1.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.3%  
76 0.6% 98.9%  
77 4% 98%  
78 1.5% 95%  
79 5% 93%  
80 5% 88% Last Result
81 6% 83%  
82 13% 77% Median
83 7% 64%  
84 14% 57%  
85 6% 43% Majority
86 10% 36%  
87 9% 27%  
88 6% 18%  
89 3% 12%  
90 4% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 1.0% 1.3%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 1.0% 99.7%  
77 2% 98.7%  
78 2% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 3% 91%  
81 6% 88% Median
82 9% 82%  
83 10% 73%  
84 6% 64%  
85 14% 57% Majority
86 7% 43%  
87 13% 36%  
88 6% 23%  
89 5% 17% Last Result
90 5% 12%  
91 1.4% 7%  
92 4% 5%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.4% 1.1%  
95 0.6% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 1.2% 99.7%  
76 2% 98.5%  
77 2% 96%  
78 5% 95%  
79 3% 90%  
80 5% 87% Median
81 10% 82%  
82 10% 72%  
83 6% 62%  
84 15% 57%  
85 10% 42% Majority
86 12% 33%  
87 5% 21%  
88 5% 16% Last Result
89 4% 12%  
90 3% 8%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.5% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.1% 99.6%  
74 1.4% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 7% 94%  
77 5% 88%  
78 7% 82%  
79 11% 75%  
80 7% 64% Last Result
81 13% 57% Median
82 9% 44%  
83 12% 35%  
84 5% 22%  
85 9% 18% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 1.0% 6%  
88 0.8% 5%  
89 3% 4%  
90 1.0% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 1.3% 99.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 7% 94%  
76 4% 87%  
77 8% 83%  
78 11% 75%  
79 9% 63% Last Result
80 15% 55% Median
81 6% 40%  
82 12% 34%  
83 5% 22%  
84 8% 17%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 0.9% 6%  
87 1.3% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.5%  
71 0.5% 98.8%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 5% 92%  
76 7% 87%  
77 9% 80% Median
78 11% 71%  
79 9% 59%  
80 9% 50% Last Result
81 10% 41%  
82 7% 30%  
83 9% 23%  
84 3% 15%  
85 5% 12% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 0.8% 99.5%  
68 2% 98.7%  
69 1.3% 96%  
70 7% 95%  
71 4% 88%  
72 5% 84% Last Result
73 8% 79%  
74 9% 71%  
75 10% 62% Median
76 11% 52%  
77 9% 41%  
78 11% 32%  
79 8% 21%  
80 3% 13%  
81 6% 9%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.3%  
65 4% 98%  
66 3% 93%  
67 6% 90%  
68 6% 84%  
69 11% 79%  
70 12% 67% Median
71 8% 56%  
72 9% 48%  
73 7% 39%  
74 10% 31%  
75 5% 22%  
76 10% 17%  
77 2% 7% Last Result
78 1.5% 4%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.3% 1.3%  
82 0.8% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 1.4% 99.3%  
64 5% 98%  
65 3% 93%  
66 5% 90%  
67 9% 84%  
68 9% 76%  
69 11% 66% Median
70 8% 55%  
71 9% 47%  
72 7% 38%  
73 11% 31%  
74 5% 20%  
75 9% 15%  
76 2% 6% Last Result
77 1.3% 4%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.2% 1.1%  
81 0.8% 1.0%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 1.2% 99.5%  
60 2% 98%  
61 5% 97%  
62 5% 91%  
63 9% 86%  
64 8% 77%  
65 11% 68%  
66 11% 57% Median
67 16% 46%  
68 6% 30% Last Result
69 7% 24%  
70 9% 17%  
71 2% 8%  
72 1.4% 6%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.6% 1.2%  
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.4% 0.5%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.0%  
55 4% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 8% 88%  
58 11% 80%  
59 13% 69%  
60 9% 56% Last Result
61 18% 47% Median
62 8% 29%  
63 7% 21%  
64 5% 14%  
65 4% 10%  
66 2% 6%  
67 1.2% 4%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 1.1% 97%  
49 6% 96%  
50 5% 90%  
51 8% 85% Median
52 10% 77%  
53 8% 67%  
54 7% 59%  
55 14% 52%  
56 6% 38%  
57 9% 32%  
58 5% 23%  
59 7% 18%  
60 3% 11%  
61 4% 8% Last Result
62 1.3% 4%  
63 1.2% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.5%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.1%  
22 3% 97%  
23 8% 94%  
24 7% 86% Median
25 7% 79%  
26 4% 71%  
27 8% 67%  
28 11% 59%  
29 15% 47%  
30 7% 32%  
31 9% 25%  
32 6% 16%  
33 3% 10%  
34 3% 7%  
35 1.4% 4% Last Result
36 0.8% 2%  
37 0.9% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations