Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 5–9 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.9% 24.2–27.7% 23.7–28.2% 23.2–28.7% 22.5–29.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.2–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–50 42–52 42–53 40–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–46 39–46 39–47 37–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–32 26–33 25–34 24–36
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 17–23 17–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–14 9–14 8–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 3–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–3 1–7 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 1.4% 99.5%  
42 7% 98%  
43 8% 92%  
44 7% 84%  
45 5% 77% Last Result
46 27% 71% Median
47 9% 44%  
48 12% 36%  
49 13% 24%  
50 2% 11%  
51 2% 8%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 98.9%  
39 7% 98%  
40 5% 91%  
41 15% 86%  
42 15% 71%  
43 22% 55% Median
44 10% 33%  
45 6% 23%  
46 13% 18%  
47 2% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 7% 96%  
27 8% 89% Last Result
28 21% 81%  
29 23% 60% Median
30 9% 37%  
31 9% 28%  
32 11% 19%  
33 4% 9%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.9% 1.4%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 99.3%  
17 11% 98%  
18 18% 87%  
19 21% 69% Last Result, Median
20 18% 48%  
21 18% 30%  
22 7% 12%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.7%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 10% 98%  
10 14% 89%  
11 42% 75% Last Result, Median
12 16% 33%  
13 11% 17%  
14 4% 6%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 1.0% 99.7%  
3 18% 98.7%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 0.1% 81%  
7 8% 81%  
8 35% 73% Last Result, Median
9 26% 38%  
10 9% 12%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 32% 100%  
3 4% 68%  
4 0.1% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0% 64%  
7 28% 64% Median
8 22% 36% Last Result
9 10% 13%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 57% 98% Median
3 0% 41%  
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.1% 41%  
7 13% 41%  
8 19% 28%  
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 47% 99.8% Last Result
2 42% 53% Median
3 2% 11%  
4 0.2% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 1.2% 9%  
7 6% 8%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 109 100% 104–113 103–115 102–115 99–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 97% 86–95 85–97 84–98 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 90 91% 85–94 83–95 81–97 80–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 43% 78–87 77–89 76–90 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 18% 77–86 76–88 74–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 79 9% 75–84 74–86 72–88 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 3% 74–83 72–84 71–85 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 2% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 76 0.9% 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 74 0.2% 69–77 68–79 68–80 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0% 67–76 66–77 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 58–66 57–67 57–68 56–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 60 0% 56–65 54–66 54–67 52–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 60 0% 54–64 53–65 53–66 49–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–57 50–58 49–59 47–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 28–37 26–38 24–39 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.5% 99.7%  
100 0.4% 99.2%  
101 1.1% 98.8%  
102 2% 98%  
103 3% 95%  
104 6% 92%  
105 8% 86%  
106 6% 78%  
107 9% 72% Last Result
108 8% 64%  
109 16% 55% Median
110 7% 39%  
111 16% 32%  
112 4% 16%  
113 3% 12%  
114 4% 9%  
115 4% 6%  
116 0.8% 2%  
117 0.6% 0.9%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.8% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98.7%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 4% 94%  
87 6% 89%  
88 5% 83%  
89 7% 78% Last Result
90 4% 71%  
91 21% 67%  
92 18% 46% Median
93 9% 28%  
94 6% 20%  
95 4% 13%  
96 3% 10%  
97 2% 7%  
98 4% 5%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 1.1% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 0.8% 97%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 94%  
85 6% 91% Majority
86 8% 85%  
87 9% 76%  
88 5% 68% Last Result
89 10% 62%  
90 25% 52% Median
91 10% 28%  
92 5% 18%  
93 3% 13%  
94 3% 10%  
95 2% 7%  
96 0.8% 4%  
97 3% 4%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 9% 95%  
79 5% 85%  
80 5% 80%  
81 12% 75%  
82 6% 63%  
83 8% 57% Median
84 6% 49%  
85 15% 43% Majority
86 16% 28%  
87 4% 12%  
88 3% 8% Last Result
89 2% 6%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.0%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 99.6%  
74 2% 98.6%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 3% 87%  
79 6% 83%  
80 7% 77% Last Result
81 21% 70%  
82 18% 49% Median
83 8% 31%  
84 5% 23%  
85 5% 18% Majority
86 4% 13%  
87 2% 9%  
88 3% 7%  
89 4% 5%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 3% 99.6%  
73 0.8% 96%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 93%  
76 3% 90%  
77 5% 87% Median
78 10% 82%  
79 25% 72%  
80 10% 48%  
81 5% 38% Last Result
82 9% 32%  
83 8% 24%  
84 6% 15%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 0.8% 3%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 4% 98.9%  
72 2% 95%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 90%  
75 6% 87% Median
76 9% 80%  
77 18% 72%  
78 21% 54%  
79 4% 33%  
80 7% 29% Last Result
81 5% 22%  
82 6% 17%  
83 4% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 1.1% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.3% 1.3%  
88 0.8% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 99.4%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 5% 97%  
72 7% 92% Last Result
73 7% 84%  
74 15% 77%  
75 20% 62% Median
76 6% 42%  
77 6% 35%  
78 8% 30%  
79 6% 21%  
80 4% 15%  
81 6% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 0.5% 2% Majority
86 1.1% 1.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.2%  
69 1.4% 98.8%  
70 7% 97%  
71 3% 91%  
72 7% 88%  
73 10% 81%  
74 5% 71%  
75 11% 67% Median
76 11% 56%  
77 24% 45%  
78 6% 20%  
79 3% 15%  
80 5% 11% Last Result
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.2% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.6%  
67 1.1% 98.8%  
68 4% 98%  
69 8% 94%  
70 7% 86%  
71 10% 80%  
72 6% 69%  
73 6% 64% Median
74 12% 57%  
75 17% 45%  
76 15% 28%  
77 4% 13%  
78 4% 9%  
79 3% 6% Last Result
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.2%  
65 3% 98.8%  
66 5% 96%  
67 7% 91%  
68 4% 84%  
69 6% 80%  
70 7% 74%  
71 11% 67%  
72 7% 56% Median
73 8% 48%  
74 17% 41%  
75 13% 23%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 6% Last Result
78 1.4% 4%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.6% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 6% 93%  
66 10% 88%  
67 6% 78%  
68 6% 71%  
69 10% 65%  
70 9% 55% Median
71 6% 46%  
72 18% 40%  
73 5% 22%  
74 12% 18%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.4% 3% Last Result
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.6%  
57 4% 98.6%  
58 6% 94%  
59 6% 89%  
60 12% 83%  
61 9% 71%  
62 11% 62% Median
63 10% 51%  
64 17% 41%  
65 14% 24%  
66 4% 10%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4% Last Result
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.9%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 0.8% 99.1%  
54 4% 98%  
55 4% 94%  
56 3% 91%  
57 4% 88%  
58 16% 84% Median
59 7% 68%  
60 16% 61%  
61 8% 45%  
62 9% 36% Last Result
63 6% 28%  
64 8% 22%  
65 6% 14%  
66 3% 8%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.4% 1.2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.5%  
51 1.0% 99.4%  
52 0.8% 98%  
53 5% 98%  
54 4% 92%  
55 4% 89%  
56 3% 85%  
57 7% 82%  
58 7% 74%  
59 9% 68%  
60 9% 59%  
61 15% 50% Last Result, Median
62 15% 35%  
63 7% 20%  
64 4% 14%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 1.1% 1.5%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 1.0% 99.3%  
49 2% 98%  
50 5% 96%  
51 10% 91%  
52 12% 80%  
53 9% 68%  
54 21% 60% Median
55 5% 38%  
56 12% 33%  
57 14% 21%  
58 2% 7%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.4% 2% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 2% 98%  
25 0.6% 96%  
26 1.2% 96%  
27 4% 95%  
28 4% 90%  
29 8% 87%  
30 6% 79%  
31 6% 73%  
32 8% 66%  
33 8% 58%  
34 10% 50% Median
35 14% 40% Last Result
36 14% 26%  
37 6% 12%  
38 2% 6%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.5% 1.2%  
41 0.4% 0.7%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations