Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 10–16 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 24.9–29.2% 24.3–29.8% 23.8–30.3% 22.8–31.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.0–26.1% 21.4–26.7% 21.0–27.3% 20.1–28.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.0–15.3% 11.6–15.8% 11.2–16.3% 10.5–17.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.6% 10.2–13.2% 9.8–13.7% 9.4–14.1% 8.8–15.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.8% 6.6–9.2% 6.3–9.6% 6.0–10.0% 5.5–10.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.5–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 1.8% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.1–3.1% 0.9–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 44–51 43–54 42–55 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 39–45 39–47 38–49 36–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 20–28 18–29 18–31
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–24 17–25 17–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–17 10–17 9–20
Rødt 1 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–10 0–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 0.4% 99.1%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 4% 97%  
44 5% 93%  
45 8% 88% Last Result
46 19% 80%  
47 15% 62% Median
48 12% 46%  
49 15% 35%  
50 6% 20%  
51 5% 14%  
52 1.2% 9%  
53 2% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.3%  
38 1.5% 98%  
39 8% 96%  
40 3% 89%  
41 9% 86%  
42 26% 77%  
43 24% 51% Median
44 12% 27%  
45 6% 16%  
46 3% 9%  
47 2% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.9% 3% Last Result
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 2% 97%  
20 3% 96%  
21 4% 93%  
22 16% 89%  
23 10% 73%  
24 20% 63% Median
25 13% 43%  
26 8% 30%  
27 16% 23% Last Result
28 4% 7%  
29 1.4% 3%  
30 0.7% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 8% 98%  
18 10% 90%  
19 11% 80% Last Result
20 12% 69%  
21 21% 58% Median
22 17% 36%  
23 9% 19%  
24 5% 11%  
25 2% 6%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.4%  
11 8% 96% Last Result
12 10% 87%  
13 13% 77%  
14 21% 64% Median
15 15% 44%  
16 21% 28%  
17 5% 8%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.5% 1.0%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 7% 99.8%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 10% 93%  
8 21% 83%  
9 32% 62% Median
10 20% 31%  
11 8% 11%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 38% 99.9%  
3 2% 62%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 12% 60% Median
8 33% 48% Last Result
9 11% 15%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.9% 1.2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 5% 99.5%  
2 7% 94%  
3 44% 87% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 12% 43%  
8 24% 31% Last Result
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 51% 54% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 99–107 98–110 97–111 94–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 72% 81–91 80–93 79–94 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 61% 81–90 79–92 78–93 75–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 82 39% 79–88 77–90 76–91 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 82 34% 78–88 76–91 75–91 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 82 28% 78–88 76–89 75–90 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 4% 72–83 70–84 70–85 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 2% 73–83 72–84 71–84 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 2% 73–82 71–83 71–84 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0.1% 68–77 67–78 65–79 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 68 0% 64–74 63–75 62–77 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 68 0% 63–73 62–75 61–76 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–67 59–69 58–69 56–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 58 0% 53–64 51–66 51–66 48–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–63 49–66
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 27–36 25–38 24–38 22–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.7%  
95 0.3% 99.4%  
96 1.3% 99.0%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.3% 96%  
99 5% 94%  
100 8% 89%  
101 11% 81%  
102 22% 70% Median
103 7% 49%  
104 13% 42%  
105 5% 29%  
106 5% 23%  
107 9% 19% Last Result
108 3% 10%  
109 1.3% 7%  
110 3% 6%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.4% 1.4%  
113 0.5% 0.9%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 0.5% 99.3%  
78 0.5% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 3% 92% Last Result
82 6% 89%  
83 7% 84%  
84 5% 77%  
85 10% 72% Majority
86 6% 62%  
87 7% 56%  
88 15% 49% Median
89 16% 34%  
90 4% 17%  
91 6% 13%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.0% 5%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.7% 1.5%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.4%  
77 0.6% 99.0%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 2% 94% Last Result
81 6% 91%  
82 3% 86%  
83 7% 83%  
84 14% 75%  
85 4% 61% Majority
86 6% 58%  
87 9% 52% Median
88 21% 43%  
89 6% 22%  
90 7% 16%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 7%  
93 3% 5%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.2% 0.8%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.4%  
75 0.9% 99.2%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 95%  
78 3% 93%  
79 7% 91%  
80 6% 84%  
81 21% 78%  
82 9% 57% Median
83 6% 48%  
84 4% 42%  
85 14% 39% Majority
86 7% 25%  
87 3% 17%  
88 6% 14%  
89 2% 9% Last Result
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 2% 91%  
79 7% 89%  
80 5% 83%  
81 8% 77%  
82 22% 69% Median
83 9% 47%  
84 4% 38%  
85 10% 34% Majority
86 3% 24%  
87 8% 20%  
88 5% 13% Last Result
89 2% 8%  
90 0.8% 6%  
91 3% 6%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.6% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.7% 99.3%  
75 3% 98.5%  
76 1.0% 96%  
77 2% 95%  
78 6% 93%  
79 4% 87%  
80 16% 83%  
81 15% 66% Median
82 7% 51%  
83 6% 44%  
84 10% 38%  
85 5% 28% Majority
86 7% 23%  
87 6% 16%  
88 3% 11% Last Result
89 4% 8%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.3%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.9% 99.4%  
70 4% 98%  
71 2% 95%  
72 7% 93%  
73 3% 86%  
74 3% 83%  
75 5% 80%  
76 6% 74%  
77 18% 68%  
78 17% 51% Median
79 6% 33%  
80 5% 27% Last Result
81 8% 22%  
82 3% 14%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.8% 99.5%  
71 2% 98.7%  
72 4% 97%  
73 5% 93%  
74 5% 88%  
75 8% 83%  
76 5% 75%  
77 10% 70%  
78 7% 60%  
79 25% 53% Median
80 11% 28% Last Result
81 2% 17%  
82 4% 15%  
83 4% 11%  
84 5% 7%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 0.8% 99.1%  
71 5% 98%  
72 3% 94%  
73 4% 91%  
74 6% 86%  
75 9% 81%  
76 11% 72%  
77 7% 61%  
78 14% 54% Median
79 18% 40% Last Result
80 6% 23%  
81 2% 16%  
82 6% 14%  
83 5% 8%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 0.5% 99.2%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 6% 94%  
69 19% 87%  
70 18% 69%  
71 7% 51% Median
72 8% 44% Last Result
73 4% 36%  
74 4% 32%  
75 7% 28%  
76 11% 21%  
77 4% 10%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 1.4% 99.3%  
62 2% 98%  
63 5% 96%  
64 4% 91%  
65 3% 87%  
66 15% 84%  
67 7% 69%  
68 13% 62% Median
69 3% 49%  
70 13% 46%  
71 6% 33%  
72 5% 27%  
73 11% 22%  
74 2% 11%  
75 4% 9%  
76 1.0% 4%  
77 2% 3% Last Result
78 0.4% 1.1%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.9% 99.6%  
61 1.3% 98.7%  
62 5% 97%  
63 4% 92%  
64 1.4% 88%  
65 6% 86%  
66 17% 81%  
67 12% 63% Median
68 4% 52%  
69 8% 48%  
70 12% 39%  
71 5% 28%  
72 5% 23%  
73 9% 18%  
74 4% 9%  
75 1.4% 5%  
76 2% 4% Last Result
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 1.2% 99.0%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 7% 97%  
60 8% 89%  
61 4% 82%  
62 13% 77%  
63 20% 64%  
64 13% 44% Median
65 9% 31%  
66 9% 22%  
67 5% 13%  
68 2% 9% Last Result
69 4% 7%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.5%  
50 0.9% 99.3%  
51 4% 98%  
52 1.2% 95%  
53 5% 93%  
54 6% 88%  
55 5% 82%  
56 7% 77%  
57 13% 71% Median
58 14% 57%  
59 10% 43%  
60 7% 33%  
61 7% 26% Last Result
62 4% 20%  
63 5% 15%  
64 4% 11%  
65 2% 7%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 1.3% 99.3%  
51 3% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 8% 94%  
54 5% 86%  
55 13% 81%  
56 14% 68%  
57 12% 54% Median
58 19% 42%  
59 7% 22%  
60 8% 15% Last Result
61 2% 7%  
62 1.2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0.2% 99.6%  
23 0.8% 99.4%  
24 3% 98.6%  
25 2% 95%  
26 3% 94%  
27 5% 91%  
28 11% 86%  
29 5% 75%  
30 4% 70%  
31 12% 66% Median
32 16% 54%  
33 13% 38%  
34 4% 24%  
35 8% 20% Last Result
36 5% 12%  
37 2% 7%  
38 3% 5%  
39 0.8% 2%  
40 0.4% 1.0%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations