Opinion Poll by Sentio, 17–23 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.2% 23.1–27.4% 22.6–28.0% 22.1–28.6% 21.1–29.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.9% 21.9–26.0% 21.3–26.7% 20.8–27.2% 19.9–28.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.7% 14.0–17.6% 13.5–18.1% 13.1–18.6% 12.4–19.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.9% 10.4–13.6% 10.0–14.1% 9.6–14.5% 9.0–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.8% 5.9–9.2% 5.6–9.5% 5.1–10.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6% 3.6–6.9% 3.2–7.5%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.7% 1.7–5.2%
Rødt 2.4% 2.8% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.8–4.3% 1.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–51 40–51 40–52 37–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–48 39–49 38–49 36–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–31 25–32 24–34 22–35
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–25 18–26 17–26 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 7–11 3–12 3–12 2–13
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–10 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 99.4%  
39 0.8% 98.6%  
40 4% 98%  
41 4% 94%  
42 11% 90%  
43 10% 80%  
44 14% 69%  
45 7% 55% Last Result, Median
46 14% 48%  
47 7% 34%  
48 7% 27%  
49 5% 21%  
50 6% 16%  
51 5% 10%  
52 4% 5%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 95%  
40 6% 93%  
41 15% 87%  
42 15% 72%  
43 10% 57% Median
44 11% 47%  
45 13% 35%  
46 7% 23%  
47 5% 16%  
48 4% 11%  
49 5% 7% Last Result
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.9%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.7%  
23 0.8% 99.3%  
24 3% 98%  
25 9% 95%  
26 16% 86%  
27 11% 70% Last Result
28 12% 59% Median
29 14% 48%  
30 17% 33%  
31 8% 17%  
32 5% 9%  
33 1.4% 4%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.8% 1.2%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.0%  
18 8% 96%  
19 8% 88% Last Result
20 18% 80%  
21 18% 63% Median
22 10% 44%  
23 11% 34%  
24 12% 23%  
25 5% 11%  
26 4% 6%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.8%  
10 4% 98.8%  
11 10% 95% Last Result
12 22% 86%  
13 20% 64% Median
14 17% 43%  
15 12% 26%  
16 9% 14%  
17 3% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.7%  
3 9% 99.5%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 4% 90%  
8 19% 86% Last Result
9 29% 67% Median
10 21% 38%  
11 8% 16%  
12 6% 8%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 59% 99.0% Median
3 8% 40%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0% 32%  
7 12% 32%  
8 11% 19% Last Result
9 5% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 41% 98% Last Result
2 40% 57% Median
3 4% 17%  
4 0.8% 13%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 3% 12%  
8 7% 9%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 46% 99.9% Last Result
2 48% 54% Median
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 108 100% 103–112 102–114 100–115 98–117
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 90% 84–95 83–95 82–97 80–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 89 83% 83–94 82–95 82–96 79–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 67% 81–92 81–93 79–93 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 83 33% 77–88 76–88 76–90 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 21% 76–86 75–87 74–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 17% 75–86 74–87 73–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 7% 73–84 72–85 71–86 68–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 3% 72–83 72–84 71–85 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 76 2% 71–81 70–83 69–83 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.1% 69–79 68–81 67–82 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.3% 69–79 68–81 67–81 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 60–70 59–71 58–73 56–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 61 0% 57–66 55–67 54–69 52–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 53–64 52–65 51–66 48–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–61 51–63 50–63 48–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–39 28–40 26–41 24–44

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 0.8% 99.2%  
100 1.1% 98%  
101 1.3% 97%  
102 4% 96%  
103 7% 92%  
104 4% 85%  
105 12% 81% Median
106 6% 69%  
107 9% 63% Last Result
108 7% 54%  
109 9% 47%  
110 8% 39%  
111 10% 31%  
112 10% 20%  
113 3% 10%  
114 3% 7%  
115 1.4% 3%  
116 1.4% 2%  
117 0.2% 0.6%  
118 0.3% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 1.0% 99.1%  
82 1.1% 98%  
83 3% 97%  
84 4% 94%  
85 8% 90% Majority
86 11% 82%  
87 7% 71%  
88 10% 65% Last Result, Median
89 8% 55%  
90 6% 48%  
91 6% 41%  
92 9% 35%  
93 8% 27%  
94 7% 19%  
95 8% 12%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.8% 1.4%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.4%  
81 1.0% 98.6%  
82 4% 98%  
83 6% 94%  
84 5% 88%  
85 3% 83% Majority
86 6% 79% Median
87 9% 73%  
88 10% 64%  
89 12% 54% Last Result
90 9% 42%  
91 6% 33%  
92 4% 27%  
93 8% 23%  
94 8% 14%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 0.6% 98.9%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 8% 95%  
82 7% 88%  
83 7% 81%  
84 7% 74% Median
85 7% 67% Majority
86 11% 60%  
87 8% 49%  
88 10% 41% Last Result
89 6% 31%  
90 4% 24%  
91 7% 20%  
92 7% 13%  
93 3% 6%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.3%  
96 0.2% 0.8%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.2% 99.4%  
74 0.5% 99.2%  
75 1.2% 98.7%  
76 3% 98%  
77 7% 94%  
78 7% 87%  
79 4% 80%  
80 6% 76%  
81 10% 69% Last Result, Median
82 8% 59%  
83 11% 51%  
84 7% 40%  
85 7% 33% Majority
86 7% 26%  
87 7% 19%  
88 8% 12%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.4% 3%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.1%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.5%  
72 0.5% 99.2%  
73 1.1% 98.7%  
74 2% 98%  
75 5% 95%  
76 7% 90%  
77 9% 83%  
78 5% 74%  
79 11% 69% Median
80 8% 59% Last Result
81 8% 51%  
82 10% 42%  
83 6% 32%  
84 4% 25%  
85 9% 21% Majority
86 7% 13%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.3% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 1.1% 98.9%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 8% 94%  
76 8% 86%  
77 4% 77%  
78 6% 73%  
79 9% 67% Median
80 12% 58% Last Result
81 10% 46%  
82 9% 36%  
83 6% 27%  
84 3% 21%  
85 5% 17% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 4% 6%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.8% 1.4%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 98.9%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 8% 90%  
75 11% 82%  
76 4% 71%  
77 8% 67% Median
78 12% 59%  
79 12% 48% Last Result
80 9% 36%  
81 7% 27%  
82 3% 19%  
83 3% 17%  
84 6% 13%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.3%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 1.1% 99.0%  
71 1.5% 98%  
72 8% 96%  
73 5% 89%  
74 12% 84%  
75 7% 72% Median
76 7% 65%  
77 7% 58%  
78 6% 51%  
79 10% 45%  
80 8% 35% Last Result
81 5% 27%  
82 11% 22%  
83 4% 11%  
84 4% 7%  
85 1.3% 3% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.5%  
67 0.7% 99.3%  
68 0.5% 98.7%  
69 1.5% 98%  
70 5% 97%  
71 3% 92%  
72 11% 89%  
73 6% 78%  
74 6% 72%  
75 9% 67% Median
76 14% 57%  
77 10% 43% Last Result
78 6% 34%  
79 7% 27%  
80 6% 20%  
81 5% 14%  
82 3% 9%  
83 5% 7%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.5%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 1.3% 98.8%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 5% 91%  
70 11% 86%  
71 7% 76%  
72 5% 69%  
73 10% 63% Median
74 10% 53%  
75 10% 43%  
76 9% 32% Last Result
77 8% 23%  
78 3% 15%  
79 4% 12%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.1%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 98.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 10% 89%  
71 7% 79%  
72 15% 73% Last Result
73 9% 57% Median
74 10% 49%  
75 11% 39%  
76 5% 28%  
77 7% 24%  
78 5% 17%  
79 3% 12%  
80 4% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 1.3% 98.5%  
59 2% 97%  
60 6% 95%  
61 10% 89%  
62 8% 79%  
63 8% 72%  
64 9% 64% Median
65 9% 54%  
66 14% 45%  
67 8% 31%  
68 8% 23% Last Result
69 4% 15%  
70 3% 11%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 1.4% 99.4%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 3% 93%  
57 10% 90%  
58 10% 80%  
59 8% 69%  
60 9% 61% Median
61 7% 53%  
62 9% 46% Last Result
63 6% 37%  
64 12% 31%  
65 4% 19%  
66 7% 15%  
67 4% 8%  
68 1.3% 4%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.1%  
50 0.8% 98.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 5% 93%  
54 5% 88%  
55 11% 83%  
56 12% 72% Median
57 7% 59%  
58 8% 53%  
59 6% 45%  
60 6% 39%  
61 6% 32% Last Result
62 10% 26%  
63 4% 16%  
64 6% 12%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 3% 97%  
52 3% 94%  
53 6% 91%  
54 9% 85%  
55 16% 76%  
56 11% 60% Median
57 9% 49%  
58 10% 40%  
59 5% 30%  
60 11% 25% Last Result
61 5% 14%  
62 3% 9%  
63 3% 6%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.2%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.6%  
25 0.3% 99.5%  
26 2% 99.2%  
27 1.2% 97%  
28 3% 96%  
29 4% 93%  
30 3% 89%  
31 6% 86%  
32 13% 80% Median
33 12% 66%  
34 7% 55%  
35 9% 48% Last Result
36 13% 39%  
37 7% 26%  
38 6% 19%  
39 5% 14%  
40 4% 9%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.7% 2%  
43 0.9% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations