Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 23–25 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.7–27.4% 22.3–27.8% 21.5–28.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.6–25.1% 21.1–25.6% 20.7–26.1% 19.9–27.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 16.0% 14.6–17.7% 14.2–18.1% 13.8–18.5% 13.2–19.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.9% 10.6–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.1% 9.4–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–48 41–49 39–50 37–52
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–45 39–47 37–47 37–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–31 25–33 25–33 24–35
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–24 18–24 17–25 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–15
Rødt 1 9 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 3% 95%  
42 7% 92%  
43 22% 85%  
44 12% 63%  
45 16% 51% Last Result, Median
46 11% 35%  
47 13% 24%  
48 4% 11%  
49 5% 8%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.5% 1.3%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 1.1% 97%  
39 4% 96%  
40 10% 93%  
41 17% 83%  
42 16% 66% Median
43 26% 50%  
44 8% 23%  
45 7% 16%  
46 2% 8%  
47 5% 7%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 7% 98.6%  
26 4% 92%  
27 22% 88% Last Result
28 16% 66%  
29 12% 50% Median
30 17% 38%  
31 13% 21%  
32 3% 8%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 5% 97%  
19 16% 92% Last Result
20 12% 76%  
21 28% 64% Median
22 10% 37%  
23 12% 27%  
24 10% 15%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.8% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 5% 99.4%  
9 10% 95%  
10 21% 85%  
11 26% 64% Last Result, Median
12 25% 38%  
13 10% 13%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 20% 99.9%  
3 0% 80%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0.1% 80%  
7 7% 79%  
8 22% 73%  
9 37% 51% Median
10 10% 14%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.8% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 2% 99.1%  
3 24% 97%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0.1% 73%  
7 19% 73%  
8 27% 54% Last Result, Median
9 20% 27%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 38% 99.9%  
3 9% 62%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.1% 53%  
7 14% 52% Median
8 27% 38% Last Result
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 54% 99.0% Last Result, Median
2 39% 45%  
3 1.3% 6%  
4 0.5% 5%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0.2% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 1.3% 1.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 102–111 101–113 100–114 98–116
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 87 77% 82–91 81–93 80–94 78–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 58% 81–90 80–91 79–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 40% 78–87 78–88 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 42% 79–88 78–89 76–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 82 23% 78–87 76–88 75–89 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 5% 74–83 72–85 72–86 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 1.0% 72–80 71–82 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.1% 70–78 69–79 68–80 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 70–78 69–79 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0% 68–76 67–77 66–79 64–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 66–74 65–75 64–76 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–67 59–68 58–69 57–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 63 0% 58–67 56–68 55–69 53–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 52–62 51–63 50–64 47–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–57 49–58 48–58 46–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–38 27–40 26–40 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.7%  
99 0.5% 99.2%  
100 3% 98.7%  
101 1.3% 95%  
102 5% 94%  
103 5% 90%  
104 16% 84%  
105 13% 69%  
106 13% 56%  
107 6% 43% Last Result
108 8% 37%  
109 7% 28%  
110 3% 21% Median
111 10% 18%  
112 3% 9%  
113 3% 6%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.4% 1.3%  
116 0.7% 0.9%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.5%  
80 2% 99.0%  
81 4% 97%  
82 4% 94%  
83 5% 90%  
84 8% 85%  
85 13% 77% Majority
86 12% 64%  
87 12% 52%  
88 5% 39%  
89 6% 35% Last Result
90 6% 28% Median
91 13% 23%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 6%  
94 3% 5%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.9% 1.3%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.6% 99.4%  
78 1.0% 98.7%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 7% 92%  
82 6% 85%  
83 12% 79%  
84 9% 67%  
85 13% 58% Majority
86 11% 45%  
87 6% 34%  
88 4% 28% Last Result
89 9% 24% Median
90 9% 15%  
91 1.4% 6%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.3% 1.2%  
95 0.8% 1.0%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 98.9%  
76 1.3% 98.6%  
77 2% 97%  
78 7% 96%  
79 4% 89%  
80 9% 84%  
81 11% 76%  
82 12% 65%  
83 8% 53% Median
84 5% 45%  
85 14% 40% Majority
86 9% 26%  
87 8% 17%  
88 5% 9% Last Result
89 1.3% 4%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.5% 1.4%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.0%  
76 2% 98.8%  
77 2% 97%  
78 1.4% 95%  
79 9% 94%  
80 9% 85%  
81 4% 76% Last Result
82 6% 72%  
83 11% 66%  
84 13% 55% Median
85 9% 42% Majority
86 12% 33%  
87 6% 21%  
88 7% 15%  
89 4% 8%  
90 1.4% 4%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.3%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 98.7%  
75 3% 98%  
76 2% 95%  
77 3% 94%  
78 13% 90%  
79 6% 77%  
80 6% 72% Last Result
81 5% 65%  
82 12% 61%  
83 12% 48% Median
84 13% 36%  
85 8% 23% Majority
86 5% 15%  
87 4% 10%  
88 4% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 5% 98%  
73 2% 93%  
74 4% 91%  
75 12% 87%  
76 4% 75%  
77 7% 71%  
78 12% 64%  
79 13% 52%  
80 7% 39% Last Result
81 12% 32% Median
82 7% 21%  
83 6% 14%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.3%  
70 3% 99.0%  
71 4% 96%  
72 7% 93%  
73 3% 86%  
74 10% 83%  
75 13% 72% Median
76 7% 59%  
77 21% 53%  
78 10% 32%  
79 10% 22%  
80 5% 12% Last Result
81 2% 7%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.9% 3%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.0% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.4%  
68 2% 99.0%  
69 4% 97%  
70 5% 94%  
71 6% 89%  
72 5% 82%  
73 10% 78%  
74 14% 68% Median
75 13% 54%  
76 18% 41%  
77 8% 23%  
78 8% 15%  
79 2% 7% Last Result
80 2% 5%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.1%  
67 1.1% 98.6%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 14% 93%  
71 12% 79%  
72 7% 67% Last Result
73 19% 60%  
74 8% 42% Median
75 9% 34%  
76 10% 25%  
77 2% 15%  
78 6% 13%  
79 3% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.3% 1.3%  
82 0.7% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.5%  
65 0.9% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 5% 92%  
69 13% 87%  
70 9% 74%  
71 7% 66%  
72 11% 59% Median
73 13% 48%  
74 13% 35%  
75 6% 21%  
76 8% 15%  
77 3% 7% Last Result
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.6%  
63 1.2% 99.4%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 5% 94%  
67 10% 89%  
68 9% 79%  
69 9% 70%  
70 8% 61%  
71 18% 53% Median
72 6% 35%  
73 12% 29%  
74 9% 17%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5% Last Result
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.0%  
59 4% 97%  
60 7% 93%  
61 9% 87%  
62 9% 78%  
63 18% 69% Median
64 17% 51%  
65 12% 33%  
66 9% 21%  
67 3% 12%  
68 5% 9% Last Result
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.9% 1.3%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.1%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 3% 97%  
57 3% 94%  
58 10% 91%  
59 3% 82%  
60 7% 79%  
61 8% 72%  
62 6% 63% Last Result
63 13% 57% Median
64 13% 44%  
65 16% 31%  
66 5% 16%  
67 5% 10%  
68 1.3% 6%  
69 3% 5%  
70 0.5% 1.3%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 0.5% 99.0%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 5% 97%  
52 5% 92%  
53 13% 88%  
54 7% 75%  
55 8% 68%  
56 4% 60%  
57 16% 56%  
58 4% 40%  
59 14% 37%  
60 9% 22% Median
61 3% 14% Last Result
62 6% 11%  
63 1.0% 5%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.2%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 1.5% 98%  
49 3% 96%  
50 8% 93%  
51 7% 85%  
52 11% 78%  
53 14% 67% Median
54 24% 53%  
55 10% 29%  
56 8% 19%  
57 5% 11%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.1% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.5% 99.8%  
25 0.5% 99.3%  
26 3% 98.8%  
27 1.3% 96%  
28 3% 94%  
29 5% 91%  
30 5% 86%  
31 13% 81%  
32 9% 68%  
33 11% 58%  
34 12% 48%  
35 11% 35% Last Result
36 10% 24% Median
37 3% 14%  
38 3% 11%  
39 2% 7%  
40 4% 6%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations