Opinion Poll by Norstat, 26–30 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.4% 24.6–28.3% 24.1–28.8% 23.6–29.3% 22.8–30.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.3–25.9% 21.8–26.4% 21.4–26.9% 20.6–27.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.3% 13.9–16.9% 13.5–17.4% 13.2–17.8% 12.5–18.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.8–7.9% 5.5–8.3% 5.3–8.6% 4.9–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 45–53 43–53 43–54 41–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 17–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–8 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 11% 91% Last Result
46 9% 80%  
47 11% 72%  
48 11% 61% Median
49 11% 50%  
50 13% 38%  
51 4% 25%  
52 7% 21%  
53 10% 14%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.2% 99.3%  
40 5% 98%  
41 9% 93%  
42 10% 84%  
43 14% 74%  
44 12% 60% Median
45 13% 47%  
46 14% 35%  
47 9% 20%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 6% Last Result
50 2% 3%  
51 0.5% 2%  
52 0.9% 1.1%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 1.1% 99.5%  
24 2% 98%  
25 7% 96%  
26 10% 90%  
27 19% 80% Last Result
28 16% 61% Median
29 22% 45%  
30 9% 24%  
31 7% 15%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 1.3% 99.5%  
17 6% 98%  
18 17% 92%  
19 17% 76% Last Result
20 15% 58% Median
21 13% 44%  
22 18% 31%  
23 5% 13%  
24 6% 8%  
25 1.5% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.7%  
10 8% 98%  
11 16% 90% Last Result
12 23% 75%  
13 24% 52% Median
14 18% 28%  
15 7% 10%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.8% 1.1%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 49% 97% Median
3 0% 48%  
4 0% 48%  
5 0% 48%  
6 0.1% 48%  
7 8% 47%  
8 23% 39%  
9 11% 16%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.2% 1.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 62% 99.2% Median
3 5% 38%  
4 0.3% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0.1% 33%  
7 7% 32%  
8 17% 26% Last Result
9 7% 9%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 13% 99.7%  
2 7% 87%  
3 46% 80% Median
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 6% 33%  
8 21% 28% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 50% 98% Last Result, Median
2 40% 48%  
3 4% 8%  
4 0.1% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 1.0% 4%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 99–110 98–111 97–112 96–114
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 87 73% 81–92 79–93 79–94 78–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 61% 79–90 78–91 77–93 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 39% 78–90 78–91 76–92 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 38% 78–88 77–90 76–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 82 26% 77–88 76–90 75–90 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 16% 76–86 74–87 73–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 5% 74–84 73–85 71–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 3% 73–82 71–83 70–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 1.5% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 64–74 63–75 62–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–69 60–69 59–71 57–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 51–62 50–63 50–64 47–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 50–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 24–34 23–35 22–36 21–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.5% 99.7%  
97 3% 99.1%  
98 3% 96%  
99 6% 93%  
100 4% 87%  
101 2% 84% Median
102 5% 81%  
103 5% 76%  
104 6% 71%  
105 9% 65%  
106 6% 55%  
107 19% 50% Last Result
108 10% 30%  
109 9% 21%  
110 3% 11%  
111 5% 8%  
112 2% 3%  
113 1.2% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.8%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 1.2% 99.6%  
79 4% 98%  
80 3% 94%  
81 4% 92%  
82 6% 88% Median
83 3% 82%  
84 6% 79%  
85 6% 73% Majority
86 11% 67%  
87 13% 56%  
88 9% 43%  
89 6% 34% Last Result
90 5% 27%  
91 11% 22%  
92 3% 12%  
93 5% 9%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.0%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.6%  
77 3% 98.8%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 5% 89%  
81 5% 84% Median
82 5% 80%  
83 6% 75%  
84 8% 69%  
85 16% 61% Majority
86 8% 45%  
87 8% 37%  
88 6% 29% Last Result
89 9% 23%  
90 4% 14%  
91 5% 10%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 1.3%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 1.0% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.6%  
77 2% 97%  
78 5% 95%  
79 5% 90%  
80 9% 85% Median
81 6% 77% Last Result
82 8% 70%  
83 8% 62%  
84 16% 54%  
85 8% 39% Majority
86 6% 30%  
87 5% 25%  
88 4% 20%  
89 5% 16%  
90 4% 11%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.7% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.4% 99.0%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 4% 93%  
79 6% 89%  
80 7% 83%  
81 7% 76% Median
82 10% 69%  
83 13% 59%  
84 9% 46%  
85 9% 38% Majority
86 11% 29%  
87 6% 18%  
88 4% 12% Last Result
89 4% 9%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.5%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.7%  
74 1.4% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 3% 91%  
78 11% 88%  
79 5% 77% Median
80 7% 72% Last Result
81 9% 65%  
82 13% 56%  
83 11% 43%  
84 6% 32%  
85 6% 26% Majority
86 3% 21%  
87 6% 18%  
88 4% 12%  
89 3% 8%  
90 4% 6%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 0.7% 99.1%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 2% 94%  
76 4% 91%  
77 8% 87%  
78 8% 79% Median
79 9% 71%  
80 7% 62% Last Result
81 14% 55%  
82 10% 41%  
83 7% 31%  
84 8% 23%  
85 5% 16% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 4% 9%  
88 1.5% 4%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 0.9% 97%  
73 4% 96%  
74 5% 93%  
75 8% 88%  
76 8% 80%  
77 7% 71%  
78 14% 64% Median
79 6% 51%  
80 8% 45% Last Result
81 8% 36%  
82 13% 28%  
83 5% 15%  
84 5% 10%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 1.0% 99.5%  
70 2% 98.5%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 6% 90%  
74 10% 84%  
75 7% 74%  
76 14% 67%  
77 7% 53% Median
78 7% 46%  
79 9% 39% Last Result
80 13% 30%  
81 5% 17%  
82 7% 12%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.7% 3%  
85 1.1% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 1.4%  
87 0.5% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 0.9% 99.1%  
70 3% 98%  
71 3% 95%  
72 6% 92% Last Result
73 7% 86%  
74 8% 79%  
75 9% 71%  
76 9% 62% Median
77 9% 53%  
78 8% 44%  
79 13% 36%  
80 9% 23%  
81 6% 15%  
82 5% 9%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.9% 1.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 1.3% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 5% 95%  
66 5% 91%  
67 6% 86%  
68 7% 80% Median
69 11% 72%  
70 10% 61%  
71 9% 51%  
72 5% 41%  
73 18% 36%  
74 4% 18%  
75 4% 14%  
76 3% 10%  
77 4% 7% Last Result
78 1.5% 3%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 1.1% 99.3%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 4% 97%  
64 6% 93%  
65 4% 87%  
66 7% 82%  
67 10% 76% Median
68 11% 65%  
69 9% 54%  
70 7% 45%  
71 18% 37%  
72 6% 20%  
73 4% 14%  
74 4% 10%  
75 2% 6%  
76 3% 5% Last Result
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.8% 99.7%  
58 1.4% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 6% 96%  
61 11% 90%  
62 6% 79%  
63 11% 72%  
64 14% 61% Median
65 10% 47%  
66 7% 37%  
67 4% 30%  
68 16% 27% Last Result
69 6% 11%  
70 2% 5%  
71 0.4% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.4%  
49 1.4% 99.1%  
50 6% 98%  
51 2% 92%  
52 6% 90%  
53 5% 84% Median
54 8% 79%  
55 9% 71%  
56 8% 62%  
57 10% 55%  
58 10% 45%  
59 7% 35%  
60 8% 28%  
61 7% 21% Last Result
62 6% 14%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.3%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 6% 97%  
53 6% 91%  
54 7% 84%  
55 12% 77%  
56 8% 65%  
57 10% 57% Median
58 19% 47%  
59 10% 29%  
60 5% 19% Last Result
61 7% 14%  
62 3% 7%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.4%  
66 0.8% 0.9%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.6%  
22 2% 98.7%  
23 5% 97%  
24 5% 92%  
25 9% 87% Median
26 6% 78%  
27 11% 72%  
28 13% 61%  
29 11% 48%  
30 8% 37%  
31 8% 29%  
32 5% 21%  
33 5% 16%  
34 4% 11%  
35 3% 7% Last Result
36 2% 4%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.7% 1.1%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations