Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 30 April–2 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.1% 26.1–30.3% 25.6–30.9% 25.1–31.4% 24.1–32.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.7% 21.9–25.8% 21.3–26.4% 20.9–26.9% 20.0–27.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.2–16.5% 12.8–16.9% 12.4–17.4% 11.7–18.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.3% 9.0–11.9% 8.7–12.3% 8.4–12.7% 7.8–13.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.5–9.0% 6.2–9.4% 5.9–9.7% 5.5–10.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.4% 3.0–7.0%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.6–6.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–53 45–55 44–56 42–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 39–46 38–47 38–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 23–29 22–30 21–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 15–22 15–23 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–17 10–17 9–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 3–11 1–13
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.4%  
44 2% 98.6%  
45 3% 97% Last Result
46 9% 93%  
47 4% 84%  
48 8% 80%  
49 20% 72%  
50 18% 52% Median
51 13% 34%  
52 8% 22%  
53 4% 14%  
54 3% 9%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.8% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.5%  
38 4% 98%  
39 6% 95%  
40 4% 88%  
41 13% 84%  
42 19% 71%  
43 25% 52% Median
44 7% 26%  
45 7% 19%  
46 5% 13%  
47 4% 8%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.4% 1.2% Last Result
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.5%  
21 2% 98%  
22 5% 97%  
23 4% 92%  
24 9% 88%  
25 17% 78%  
26 14% 61% Median
27 11% 47% Last Result
28 18% 36%  
29 8% 18%  
30 5% 9%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.9% 1.4%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 1.4% 99.4%  
15 4% 98%  
16 7% 94%  
17 21% 86%  
18 19% 66% Median
19 13% 47% Last Result
20 21% 33%  
21 6% 12%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.1%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 4% 99.4%  
11 6% 95% Last Result
12 17% 89%  
13 23% 72% Median
14 21% 49%  
15 13% 28%  
16 9% 15%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.0% 1.4%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 1.1% 99.4%  
3 11% 98%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 12% 88%  
8 33% 76% Last Result, Median
9 21% 43%  
10 13% 21%  
11 6% 8%  
12 0.9% 2%  
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 43% 99.9%  
3 2% 57%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 15% 55% Median
8 22% 40% Last Result
9 10% 18%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 55% 91% Median
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0.1% 36%  
7 7% 36%  
8 23% 28%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 71% 81% Last Result, Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0.3% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 108 100% 103–113 102–114 100–115 99–116
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 94% 85–95 84–96 83–97 80–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 89 90% 84–94 83–96 82–96 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 41% 78–88 76–90 76–91 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 24% 77–86 75–88 74–89 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 80 10% 75–85 73–86 73–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 6% 74–84 73–85 72–86 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 1.0% 71–80 70–82 70–83 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 75 0.8% 71–80 70–82 69–83 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 74 0.6% 70–78 69–81 68–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 70 0% 65–74 63–75 62–76 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 64–73 63–74 61–75 60–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 63 0% 58–68 57–70 55–70 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 61 0% 56–66 55–67 54–69 53–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 61 0% 58–65 56–66 55–67 54–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–60 51–61 51–63 49–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 27–36 26–38 25–39 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 3% 99.3%  
101 1.2% 97%  
102 4% 95%  
103 4% 91%  
104 4% 87%  
105 8% 83%  
106 9% 75%  
107 8% 66% Last Result
108 9% 57%  
109 18% 48% Median
110 10% 30%  
111 4% 20%  
112 5% 15%  
113 4% 10%  
114 2% 7%  
115 4% 5%  
116 0.3% 0.8%  
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.7% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.1%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 5% 94% Majority
86 4% 90%  
87 6% 86%  
88 6% 80%  
89 13% 74% Last Result
90 18% 61%  
91 4% 43%  
92 11% 38% Median
93 8% 28%  
94 6% 20%  
95 4% 13%  
96 4% 9%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.3%  
100 0.8% 0.9%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 99.1%  
81 0.6% 98.6%  
82 3% 98%  
83 1.2% 95%  
84 5% 94%  
85 3% 90% Majority
86 6% 86%  
87 9% 80%  
88 8% 72% Last Result
89 21% 63%  
90 4% 43%  
91 10% 39% Median
92 9% 29%  
93 7% 20%  
94 5% 14%  
95 4% 9%  
96 3% 5%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.3% 1.3%  
99 0.8% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.7%  
75 0.8% 98.8%  
76 3% 98%  
77 4% 95%  
78 2% 91%  
79 4% 89%  
80 6% 86%  
81 7% 80%  
82 13% 72%  
83 10% 60% Median
84 8% 49%  
85 7% 41% Majority
86 6% 34%  
87 16% 28%  
88 3% 12% Last Result
89 3% 9%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 1.4% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 98%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 4% 94%  
77 5% 90%  
78 7% 85%  
79 7% 79%  
80 16% 72% Last Result
81 11% 55%  
82 6% 45%  
83 7% 39% Median
84 8% 32%  
85 10% 24% Majority
86 5% 13%  
87 4% 9%  
88 3% 5%  
89 0.5% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.3%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.1%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 3% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 5% 91%  
76 7% 86%  
77 9% 80% Median
78 10% 71%  
79 4% 61%  
80 21% 57%  
81 8% 37% Last Result
82 9% 28%  
83 6% 20%  
84 3% 14%  
85 5% 10% Majority
86 1.2% 6%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.4%  
90 0.6% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.8% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.7%  
72 3% 98%  
73 4% 95%  
74 4% 91%  
75 6% 87%  
76 8% 80% Median
77 11% 72%  
78 4% 62%  
79 18% 57%  
80 13% 39% Last Result
81 6% 26%  
82 6% 20%  
83 4% 14%  
84 5% 10%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.7% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.7% 99.5%  
69 1.3% 98.8%  
70 5% 98%  
71 6% 92%  
72 5% 86% Last Result
73 6% 81%  
74 8% 76%  
75 9% 67%  
76 12% 59% Median
77 7% 47%  
78 19% 40%  
79 8% 21%  
80 4% 13%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.4% 4%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.3% 1.0% Majority
86 0.4% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.4% 99.3%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 4% 97%  
71 5% 93%  
72 7% 88%  
73 10% 81%  
74 11% 71%  
75 11% 60% Median
76 8% 48%  
77 6% 40%  
78 17% 34%  
79 6% 17%  
80 4% 11% Last Result
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.5% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.3%  
85 0.2% 0.8% Majority
86 0.1% 0.6%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 1.2% 99.5%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 4% 97%  
70 4% 93%  
71 7% 89%  
72 10% 82%  
73 10% 71%  
74 12% 61% Median
75 8% 49%  
76 7% 41%  
77 15% 34%  
78 10% 19%  
79 2% 9% Last Result
80 2% 7%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.6% Majority
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 3% 93%  
66 3% 89%  
67 8% 86%  
68 9% 78%  
69 17% 69%  
70 10% 52% Median
71 4% 42%  
72 8% 37%  
73 14% 29%  
74 7% 15%  
75 6% 9%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 0.6% 2% Last Result
78 0.5% 1.5%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.8% 99.6%  
61 2% 98.8%  
62 0.9% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 4% 89%  
66 5% 86%  
67 11% 81%  
68 16% 70%  
69 12% 54% Median
70 6% 42%  
71 7% 37%  
72 13% 29%  
73 8% 16%  
74 4% 8%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 0.9% 2% Last Result
77 0.2% 1.1%  
78 0.7% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.7%  
54 1.3% 98.9%  
55 0.3% 98%  
56 1.3% 97%  
57 3% 96%  
58 3% 93%  
59 2% 90%  
60 6% 88%  
61 19% 82% Last Result
62 8% 63%  
63 12% 55%  
64 9% 43%  
65 8% 34% Median
66 10% 26%  
67 4% 16%  
68 5% 12%  
69 2% 8%  
70 4% 6%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.5%  
54 4% 99.2%  
55 2% 95%  
56 4% 93%  
57 5% 90%  
58 4% 85%  
59 10% 80% Median
60 18% 70%  
61 9% 52%  
62 8% 43% Last Result
63 9% 34%  
64 8% 25%  
65 4% 17%  
66 4% 13%  
67 4% 9%  
68 1.2% 5%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.9%  
56 3% 97%  
57 4% 94%  
58 8% 90%  
59 15% 82%  
60 13% 67%  
61 12% 55% Median
62 7% 42%  
63 19% 36%  
64 6% 17%  
65 4% 11%  
66 4% 7%  
67 0.9% 3%  
68 0.6% 2% Last Result
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.7%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 1.0% 99.0%  
51 5% 98%  
52 5% 93%  
53 6% 88%  
54 12% 81%  
55 8% 69%  
56 12% 61% Median
57 17% 49%  
58 14% 31%  
59 5% 18%  
60 6% 13% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.0%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.3% 99.5%  
24 1.3% 99.2%  
25 1.2% 98%  
26 2% 97%  
27 5% 94%  
28 5% 89%  
29 10% 84%  
30 8% 74%  
31 14% 66%  
32 11% 52%  
33 8% 41% Median
34 9% 33%  
35 9% 24% Last Result
36 6% 15%  
37 3% 9%  
38 2% 6%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations