Opinion Poll by Norstat, 30 April–7 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.0% 24.0–28.2% 23.4–28.9% 22.9–29.4% 22.0–30.5%
Høyre 25.0% 25.5% 23.4–27.7% 22.9–28.3% 22.4–28.8% 21.4–29.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.9% 14.3–17.8% 13.8–18.4% 13.4–18.8% 12.7–19.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1% 8.9–13.5% 8.2–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 4.9–8.6% 4.5–9.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.3% 2.7–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 43–52 43–53 42–55 40–57
Høyre 45 47 43–50 42–52 40–53 39–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–33 25–34 25–35 23–36
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 16–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–15 9–16 8–17
Venstre 8 2 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 0–8 0–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 98.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 7% 96%  
44 4% 89%  
45 15% 85%  
46 6% 70%  
47 13% 65%  
48 16% 51% Median
49 5% 35% Last Result
50 9% 30%  
51 5% 20%  
52 10% 16%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.9% 4%  
55 1.2% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 95%  
43 4% 91%  
44 10% 87%  
45 12% 78% Last Result
46 11% 65%  
47 17% 54% Median
48 10% 38%  
49 5% 27%  
50 13% 22%  
51 3% 9%  
52 3% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 1.3%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 1.1% 99.1%  
25 5% 98%  
26 5% 93%  
27 10% 88% Last Result
28 15% 78%  
29 16% 62% Median
30 16% 47%  
31 9% 30%  
32 8% 22%  
33 7% 13%  
34 2% 6%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.3% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.6%  
16 2% 98%  
17 5% 97%  
18 7% 91%  
19 20% 85% Last Result
20 19% 65% Median
21 19% 46%  
22 6% 27%  
23 15% 21%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 5% 98.8%  
10 9% 94%  
11 21% 85% Last Result
12 26% 64% Median
13 21% 38%  
14 8% 17%  
15 6% 9%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 56% 99.4% Median
3 5% 44%  
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0.1% 38%  
7 8% 38%  
8 19% 31% Last Result
9 7% 12%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 61% 89% Median
3 0% 28%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 5% 28%  
8 16% 22%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 44% 99.0% Last Result
2 37% 54% Median
3 4% 18%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 4% 14%  
8 8% 10%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 42% 93%  
2 8% 51% Median
3 35% 43%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 2% 8%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 0.8% 1.0%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 98–109 96–110 94–110 92–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 86 66% 81–91 79–93 79–94 76–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 85 62% 81–90 79–92 78–94 74–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 85 52% 80–91 79–92 77–93 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 38% 79–88 77–90 75–91 73–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 28% 77–88 76–89 75–90 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 83 34% 78–88 76–90 75–90 72–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 15% 75–85 74–87 73–88 70–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 14% 75–86 73–87 72–88 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 1.0% 71–80 70–82 68–83 66–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 73 0.2% 68–78 67–79 65–80 63–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 66–75 64–77 63–77 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 63–72 62–74 61–75 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 66 0% 60–70 59–73 59–75 55–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 55–64 54–66 53–67 51–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 54 0% 49–58 47–60 46–62 44–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 26 0% 22–33 22–34 21–35 19–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.6%  
93 1.2% 99.4%  
94 1.4% 98%  
95 1.4% 97%  
96 1.1% 95%  
97 2% 94%  
98 2% 92%  
99 10% 90%  
100 4% 80% Median
101 8% 76%  
102 9% 68%  
103 12% 58%  
104 6% 46%  
105 7% 40%  
106 11% 33%  
107 7% 22% Last Result
108 3% 16%  
109 6% 13%  
110 4% 7%  
111 0.6% 2%  
112 0.5% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.2%  
114 0.5% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 1.0% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 98.7%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 3% 98%  
80 2% 95%  
81 3% 93% Last Result
82 7% 90%  
83 9% 83%  
84 9% 75% Median
85 13% 66% Majority
86 10% 52%  
87 7% 42%  
88 8% 36%  
89 6% 28%  
90 8% 22%  
91 6% 14%  
92 2% 8%  
93 2% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.4%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 0.4% 99.0%  
77 0.7% 98.6%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 3% 94%  
81 10% 91%  
82 6% 81% Median
83 7% 74%  
84 5% 67%  
85 12% 62% Majority
86 15% 49%  
87 8% 34%  
88 6% 25%  
89 6% 20% Last Result
90 4% 14%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.1% 4%  
94 0.8% 3%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.8% 99.6%  
76 0.7% 98.9%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 1.5% 97%  
79 4% 96%  
80 7% 92%  
81 2% 85%  
82 8% 82%  
83 13% 75%  
84 9% 61% Median
85 15% 52% Majority
86 9% 37%  
87 5% 29%  
88 4% 23% Last Result
89 7% 19%  
90 2% 12%  
91 3% 10%  
92 4% 7%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.5% 1.4%  
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 0.8% 98%  
76 1.1% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 4% 94%  
79 4% 91%  
80 6% 86% Last Result
81 6% 80%  
82 8% 75% Median
83 15% 66%  
84 12% 51%  
85 5% 38% Majority
86 7% 33%  
87 6% 26%  
88 10% 19%  
89 3% 9%  
90 3% 6%  
91 0.9% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.4%  
94 0.3% 1.0%  
95 0.5% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 7% 95%  
78 5% 88%  
79 4% 83%  
80 5% 79% Last Result
81 12% 74%  
82 14% 62% Median
83 9% 47%  
84 10% 38%  
85 6% 28% Majority
86 7% 23%  
87 5% 16%  
88 3% 11%  
89 5% 8%  
90 1.5% 3%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.4% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.3%  
74 0.7% 98.6%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 2% 94%  
78 6% 92%  
79 8% 86%  
80 6% 78% Median
81 8% 72%  
82 7% 64%  
83 10% 58%  
84 13% 48%  
85 9% 34% Majority
86 9% 25%  
87 7% 17%  
88 3% 10% Last Result
89 2% 7%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 1.0% 1.3%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.5%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 95%  
75 6% 93%  
76 4% 87%  
77 3% 83%  
78 10% 80% Median
79 6% 70%  
80 6% 64% Last Result
81 11% 58%  
82 17% 47%  
83 9% 30%  
84 6% 21%  
85 7% 15% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 3% 6%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.7%  
92 0.5% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.2%  
72 2% 98.5%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 6% 93%  
76 6% 87%  
77 6% 82%  
78 6% 76%  
79 8% 70% Last Result
80 15% 62% Median
81 12% 46%  
82 11% 34%  
83 4% 23%  
84 5% 19%  
85 4% 14% Majority
86 5% 10%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.5% 1.2%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 0.4% 99.1%  
68 1.3% 98.7%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 4% 93%  
72 5% 90% Last Result
73 11% 85%  
74 7% 74%  
75 10% 67%  
76 11% 57% Median
77 9% 46%  
78 4% 37%  
79 11% 33%  
80 13% 22%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.7% 3%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.0% Majority
86 0.1% 0.6%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.0%  
65 1.0% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 3% 95%  
68 5% 93%  
69 8% 87%  
70 5% 79%  
71 12% 75%  
72 13% 63% Median
73 9% 50%  
74 12% 41%  
75 8% 29%  
76 5% 21%  
77 4% 16% Last Result
78 3% 12%  
79 5% 9%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 0.8% 98.9%  
63 1.5% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 93%  
66 4% 90%  
67 9% 86%  
68 8% 78%  
69 14% 70%  
70 4% 56% Median
71 15% 53%  
72 12% 38%  
73 6% 26%  
74 7% 19%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 9% Last Result
77 4% 6%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.2%  
80 0.2% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.5%  
60 1.0% 98.9%  
61 1.4% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 3% 93%  
64 6% 90%  
65 7% 83%  
66 12% 77%  
67 5% 65%  
68 20% 60% Last Result, Median
69 5% 40%  
70 4% 35%  
71 15% 32%  
72 8% 17%  
73 3% 9%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.5% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 0.5% 98.8%  
58 0.6% 98%  
59 4% 98%  
60 6% 93%  
61 3% 87%  
62 7% 84% Last Result
63 11% 78%  
64 7% 67% Median
65 6% 60%  
66 12% 54%  
67 9% 42%  
68 8% 32%  
69 4% 24%  
70 10% 20%  
71 2% 10%  
72 2% 8%  
73 1.1% 6%  
74 1.4% 5%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.1% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.7%  
52 1.2% 99.3%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 9% 90%  
57 10% 81%  
58 6% 70%  
59 8% 65%  
60 19% 57% Last Result, Median
61 9% 38%  
62 7% 29%  
63 10% 23%  
64 3% 13%  
65 4% 9%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.9% 1.3%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.7%  
45 1.0% 98.8%  
46 0.8% 98%  
47 2% 97%  
48 4% 95%  
49 5% 91%  
50 10% 86%  
51 13% 76% Median
52 5% 63%  
53 8% 59%  
54 8% 51%  
55 15% 43%  
56 7% 28%  
57 4% 21%  
58 7% 17%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 1.0% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.3% 99.8%  
20 1.3% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 9% 96%  
23 9% 87%  
24 10% 78% Median
25 5% 68%  
26 15% 63%  
27 5% 48%  
28 8% 43%  
29 5% 35%  
30 8% 30%  
31 4% 22%  
32 5% 18%  
33 3% 13%  
34 6% 9%  
35 2% 4% Last Result
36 1.0% 1.5%  
37 0.2% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations