Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 3–7 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.2% 24.5–28.1% 24.0–28.6% 23.6–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.5% 23.8–27.4% 23.4–27.9% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 16.1% 14.7–17.6% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.5% 7.3–12.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Rødt 2.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 45–52 43–53 42–54 41–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–50 43–52 42–54 40–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 30 27–33 26–33 25–34 24–36
Senterpartiet 19 18 15–20 15–21 14–21 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 3% 97%  
44 3% 94%  
45 8% 91% Last Result
46 12% 83%  
47 8% 71%  
48 16% 63% Median
49 10% 47%  
50 13% 36%  
51 7% 23%  
52 8% 16%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.4%  
42 3% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 12% 92%  
45 16% 80%  
46 9% 64%  
47 14% 55% Median
48 18% 41%  
49 5% 23% Last Result
50 9% 18%  
51 3% 9%  
52 2% 6%  
53 1.4% 4%  
54 1.4% 3%  
55 1.0% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.7%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 5% 97%  
27 9% 92% Last Result
28 12% 82%  
29 12% 70%  
30 16% 59% Median
31 23% 43%  
32 7% 20%  
33 8% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.8% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.1%  
15 8% 96%  
16 16% 88%  
17 22% 72%  
18 13% 50% Median
19 19% 37% Last Result
20 9% 18%  
21 8% 9%  
22 0.8% 1.5%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 12% 98% Last Result
12 13% 86%  
13 26% 73% Median
14 23% 47%  
15 16% 24%  
16 4% 8%  
17 3% 4%  
18 1.1% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 15% 99.6%  
2 5% 85%  
3 49% 80% Median
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 7% 31%  
8 17% 24% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.0% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100% Last Result
2 65% 86% Median
3 0% 21%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0% 21%  
7 4% 21%  
8 14% 17%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100%  
2 76% 98.9% Median
3 5% 23%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0% 18%  
7 1.4% 18%  
8 14% 17% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 39% 99.6% Last Result
2 46% 61% Median
3 2% 14%  
4 0.1% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 5% 13%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.3% 1.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 98–108 97–109 96–110 93–111
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 83% 82–93 82–94 81–95 79–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 57% 81–91 80–92 79–93 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 51% 79–89 78–90 78–91 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 83 43% 78–88 77–89 76–90 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 25% 76–86 74–88 74–89 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 17% 76–87 75–87 74–88 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 12% 75–85 75–86 74–87 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 4% 73–82 72–83 72–85 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 78 3% 73–83 71–83 71–85 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 67–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–74 63–75 62–75 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 66 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 55–66 55–67 53–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 51–61 50–62 49–63 47–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 25 0% 20–30 20–31 19–33 18–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 1.1% 99.1%  
96 1.4% 98%  
97 5% 97%  
98 3% 92%  
99 7% 88%  
100 8% 82%  
101 5% 74% Median
102 5% 69%  
103 17% 63%  
104 7% 47%  
105 12% 40%  
106 7% 28%  
107 8% 21% Last Result
108 6% 13%  
109 2% 7%  
110 4% 5%  
111 0.6% 0.9%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.5%  
80 1.4% 98.9%  
81 2% 98%  
82 7% 96%  
83 4% 89%  
84 3% 86%  
85 7% 83% Median, Majority
86 13% 76%  
87 8% 63%  
88 12% 55%  
89 8% 43% Last Result
90 13% 35%  
91 4% 22%  
92 7% 18%  
93 3% 11%  
94 4% 8%  
95 3% 4%  
96 0.6% 1.2%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 1.1% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 95%  
81 8% 92%  
82 7% 84%  
83 8% 77% Median
84 12% 69%  
85 5% 57% Majority
86 12% 52%  
87 9% 40%  
88 12% 31% Last Result
89 2% 19%  
90 4% 16%  
91 7% 12%  
92 2% 5%  
93 3% 3%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.7% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 98.9%  
78 5% 98%  
79 4% 93%  
80 3% 89%  
81 2% 86%  
82 14% 84%  
83 8% 70% Median
84 11% 62%  
85 7% 51% Majority
86 9% 44%  
87 14% 35%  
88 7% 20% Last Result
89 5% 13%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.7% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 3% 99.4%  
77 2% 97%  
78 7% 95%  
79 4% 88%  
80 2% 84%  
81 12% 81% Last Result
82 9% 69% Median
83 12% 60%  
84 5% 48%  
85 12% 43% Majority
86 8% 31%  
87 7% 23%  
88 8% 16%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.3%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 2% 99.4%  
74 4% 98%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 92%  
77 5% 89%  
78 9% 85%  
79 7% 76%  
80 12% 69% Last Result, Median
81 11% 57%  
82 6% 46%  
83 12% 40%  
84 3% 28%  
85 14% 25% Majority
86 2% 10%  
87 2% 9%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.5%  
74 3% 98.8%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 92%  
77 7% 89%  
78 4% 82%  
79 13% 78%  
80 8% 65% Last Result, Median
81 12% 57%  
82 8% 45%  
83 13% 37%  
84 7% 24%  
85 3% 17% Majority
86 4% 14%  
87 7% 11%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 99.6%  
73 1.2% 99.5%  
74 2% 98%  
75 7% 96%  
76 8% 89%  
77 5% 81%  
78 2% 76%  
79 13% 74%  
80 13% 62% Last Result, Median
81 13% 49%  
82 6% 36%  
83 11% 31%  
84 8% 20%  
85 5% 12% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.2%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.6%  
71 2% 99.1%  
72 3% 98%  
73 4% 94%  
74 7% 90%  
75 9% 83%  
76 4% 74%  
77 11% 70%  
78 11% 59% Median
79 14% 48% Last Result
80 8% 34%  
81 12% 26%  
82 7% 14%  
83 2% 7%  
84 1.2% 5%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.9% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 0.8% 99.2%  
71 4% 98%  
72 3% 95% Last Result
73 4% 92%  
74 4% 88%  
75 8% 83%  
76 10% 76%  
77 7% 66%  
78 13% 59% Median
79 10% 46%  
80 7% 36%  
81 9% 29%  
82 4% 20%  
83 13% 17%  
84 1.2% 4%  
85 0.6% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 1.1% 1.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 3% 98.7%  
65 2% 96%  
66 3% 94%  
67 9% 91%  
68 5% 82%  
69 12% 77%  
70 13% 65% Median
71 6% 53%  
72 9% 46%  
73 7% 38%  
74 8% 30%  
75 6% 22%  
76 10% 15%  
77 2% 5% Last Result
78 1.2% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 99.3%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 4% 97%  
64 2% 93%  
65 8% 91%  
66 7% 83%  
67 12% 76%  
68 12% 64% Median
69 12% 52%  
70 10% 40%  
71 5% 30%  
72 10% 25%  
73 4% 15%  
74 6% 11%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.2% 2% Last Result
77 0.4% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 4% 99.1%  
60 2% 95%  
61 6% 93%  
62 8% 87% Last Result
63 7% 79%  
64 12% 72% Median
65 7% 60%  
66 17% 53%  
67 5% 37%  
68 5% 31%  
69 8% 26%  
70 7% 18%  
71 3% 12%  
72 5% 8%  
73 1.4% 3%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 1.3% 99.1%  
59 2% 98%  
60 6% 95%  
61 9% 89%  
62 5% 80%  
63 8% 75%  
64 18% 67%  
65 10% 49% Median
66 9% 39%  
67 14% 30%  
68 4% 17% Last Result
69 6% 12%  
70 1.4% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 99.4%  
55 4% 98%  
56 6% 94%  
57 7% 88%  
58 12% 81%  
59 10% 70%  
60 12% 59% Last Result, Median
61 9% 47%  
62 16% 38%  
63 10% 22%  
64 3% 12%  
65 4% 9%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.4%  
70 0.8% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 0.8% 99.2%  
49 1.1% 98%  
50 3% 97%  
51 6% 94%  
52 8% 88%  
53 16% 79% Median
54 5% 64%  
55 6% 58%  
56 10% 52%  
57 11% 42%  
58 8% 32%  
59 5% 24%  
60 9% 19%  
61 4% 10% Last Result
62 3% 6%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.8%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 8% 97%  
21 9% 89%  
22 8% 80%  
23 7% 73% Median
24 8% 66%  
25 10% 57%  
26 12% 47%  
27 11% 35%  
28 7% 25%  
29 6% 17%  
30 5% 11%  
31 2% 6%  
32 1.3% 4%  
33 1.0% 3%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations