Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 8–9 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.7% 24.7–28.7% 24.2–29.3% 23.7–29.8% 22.8–30.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.7% 22.8–26.7% 22.3–27.3% 21.8–27.8% 21.0–28.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.4% 13.9–17.2% 13.5–17.7% 13.1–18.1% 12.4–18.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.5% 9.2–12.0% 8.9–12.4% 8.6–12.8% 8.0–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6% 5.4–8.9% 4.9–9.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 45–53 44–53 43–54 41–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–49 40–51 39–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 26–31 25–32 24–32 23–34
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 17–22 16–22 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 16% 94% Last Result
46 7% 77%  
47 14% 70%  
48 10% 56% Median
49 9% 46%  
50 13% 37%  
51 8% 24%  
52 6% 16%  
53 6% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.5% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 3% 97%  
42 6% 94%  
43 18% 88%  
44 17% 70%  
45 7% 52% Median
46 4% 46%  
47 16% 41%  
48 12% 25%  
49 9% 14% Last Result
50 2% 5%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.3% 1.5%  
53 0.6% 1.2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.2% 99.6%  
24 2% 98%  
25 6% 97%  
26 10% 91%  
27 28% 81% Last Result
28 18% 52% Median
29 9% 35%  
30 10% 26%  
31 9% 15%  
32 4% 6%  
33 0.7% 2%  
34 0.9% 1.4%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.8%  
15 1.2% 99.6%  
16 3% 98%  
17 31% 96%  
18 15% 65%  
19 8% 50% Last Result, Median
20 5% 42%  
21 24% 37%  
22 11% 13%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.8% 1.3%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.8%  
10 5% 99.0%  
11 13% 94% Last Result
12 21% 81%  
13 29% 59% Median
14 17% 30%  
15 9% 13%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.4% 0.7%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 39% 99.7%  
3 4% 61%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 6% 57%  
8 36% 50% Last Result, Median
9 10% 14%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 3% 99.7%  
2 8% 96%  
3 40% 88% Median
4 0% 48%  
5 0% 48%  
6 0% 48%  
7 11% 48%  
8 20% 37% Last Result
9 11% 17%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 22% 100% Last Result
2 64% 78% Median
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 6% 13%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 51% 98.6% Last Result, Median
2 39% 47%  
3 0.7% 9%  
4 0.1% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 1.2% 8%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 102–111 101–111 99–113 97–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 89 94% 85–95 83–96 82–96 78–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 87 72% 83–93 81–94 80–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 49% 81–89 79–90 78–91 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 28% 76–86 75–88 75–89 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 23% 78–85 76–87 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 6% 74–84 73–85 73–87 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 6% 74–84 73–86 73–87 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 2% 72–82 72–82 71–84 69–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 1.5% 72–81 71–83 70–83 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0.1% 68–76 66–78 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–74 64–76 63–77 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 60–69 60–69 59–71 56–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 55–65 52–67 52–67 49–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–62 53–62 53–64 51–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 24–34 23–36 22–37 20–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.2% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.5% 99.7%  
98 1.4% 99.2%  
99 2% 98%  
100 1.1% 96%  
101 3% 95%  
102 2% 92%  
103 6% 90%  
104 17% 84%  
105 10% 67%  
106 13% 57% Median
107 4% 44% Last Result
108 14% 40%  
109 5% 27%  
110 9% 22%  
111 8% 13%  
112 2% 5%  
113 1.3% 3%  
114 1.0% 1.5%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.2% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.5%  
80 0.2% 99.3%  
81 0.9% 99.2%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 1.0% 95%  
85 14% 94% Majority
86 2% 79%  
87 5% 77%  
88 19% 72% Median
89 10% 53% Last Result
90 10% 43%  
91 8% 34%  
92 5% 26%  
93 5% 21%  
94 6% 16%  
95 2% 10%  
96 6% 8%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.9% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.3%  
79 0.4% 99.1%  
80 3% 98.7%  
81 3% 95%  
82 2% 93%  
83 11% 91%  
84 7% 80%  
85 2% 72% Majority
86 7% 71%  
87 19% 64% Median
88 5% 44% Last Result
89 15% 39%  
90 3% 24%  
91 7% 22%  
92 2% 15%  
93 5% 13%  
94 6% 8%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.9% 1.1%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.4%  
77 0.5% 99.0%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 95%  
80 2% 93%  
81 7% 91% Median
82 9% 84%  
83 21% 76%  
84 5% 55%  
85 10% 49% Majority
86 8% 40%  
87 15% 31%  
88 6% 16% Last Result
89 4% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.2%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 99.8%  
74 0.8% 98.9%  
75 6% 98%  
76 5% 92%  
77 2% 87%  
78 7% 85%  
79 3% 78%  
80 15% 76% Median
81 5% 61% Last Result
82 20% 56%  
83 7% 36%  
84 2% 29%  
85 7% 28% Majority
86 11% 20%  
87 2% 9%  
88 3% 7%  
89 3% 5%  
90 0.4% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.9%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 99.0%  
75 0.6% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 94%  
78 3% 90%  
79 8% 87%  
80 14% 79% Last Result
81 13% 65%  
82 8% 52%  
83 5% 44%  
84 15% 39% Median
85 15% 23% Majority
86 1.5% 9%  
87 2% 7%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.4% 3%  
90 0.7% 1.3%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.9% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 98.7%  
73 5% 98%  
74 10% 93%  
75 5% 83%  
76 6% 79%  
77 4% 72%  
78 12% 68% Median
79 4% 56%  
80 18% 52% Last Result
81 9% 35%  
82 3% 26%  
83 5% 23%  
84 13% 18%  
85 1.1% 6% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.7%  
72 0.5% 98.8%  
73 6% 98%  
74 2% 92%  
75 6% 90%  
76 5% 84%  
77 5% 79%  
78 8% 74%  
79 10% 66% Median
80 10% 57% Last Result
81 19% 47%  
82 5% 28%  
83 2% 23%  
84 14% 21%  
85 1.0% 6% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 1.1% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 98.5%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 11% 97%  
73 7% 86%  
74 8% 79%  
75 4% 71%  
76 10% 67%  
77 7% 57% Median
78 6% 51%  
79 20% 45% Last Result
80 4% 24%  
81 1.4% 20%  
82 15% 19%  
83 0.8% 4%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.0%  
70 2% 98.7%  
71 2% 96%  
72 12% 94% Last Result
73 5% 82%  
74 8% 77%  
75 11% 70%  
76 10% 59% Median
77 16% 49%  
78 5% 32%  
79 7% 27%  
80 8% 20%  
81 2% 12%  
82 4% 10%  
83 3% 6%  
84 0.8% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.5% Majority
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 98.9%  
65 3% 98%  
66 2% 95%  
67 2% 94%  
68 5% 92% Median
69 22% 86%  
70 3% 64%  
71 7% 61%  
72 10% 54%  
73 9% 44%  
74 19% 35%  
75 3% 16%  
76 4% 13%  
77 2% 9% Last Result
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.5% 1.4%  
81 0.6% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.9% 99.4%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 2% 92%  
66 4% 90%  
67 9% 86% Median
68 19% 77%  
69 5% 58%  
70 12% 53%  
71 3% 41%  
72 22% 38%  
73 6% 17%  
74 2% 11%  
75 2% 8%  
76 1.3% 6% Last Result
77 3% 5%  
78 0.7% 1.4%  
79 0.1% 0.7%  
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.9% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.0%  
58 1.0% 98.6%  
59 2% 98%  
60 13% 96%  
61 11% 83%  
62 3% 72%  
63 4% 68%  
64 13% 64% Median
65 15% 51%  
66 9% 36%  
67 5% 27%  
68 5% 22% Last Result
69 13% 17%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 0.4% 99.0%  
51 1.1% 98.7%  
52 4% 98%  
53 1.1% 94%  
54 2% 93%  
55 7% 90%  
56 18% 83%  
57 2% 66%  
58 5% 64%  
59 15% 59% Median
60 3% 44%  
61 6% 41% Last Result
62 17% 35%  
63 6% 18%  
64 2% 12%  
65 1.0% 11%  
66 2% 10%  
67 6% 8%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 1.3% 99.0%  
53 3% 98%  
54 3% 95%  
55 13% 92%  
56 12% 78%  
57 11% 66%  
58 10% 55% Median
59 8% 46%  
60 9% 37% Last Result
61 17% 29%  
62 7% 12%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.4% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 0.3% 99.3%  
22 3% 99.0%  
23 5% 96%  
24 2% 91%  
25 2% 88%  
26 3% 86%  
27 13% 84%  
28 5% 71%  
29 5% 66%  
30 9% 61% Median
31 6% 52%  
32 21% 46%  
33 9% 25%  
34 7% 16%  
35 3% 9% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations