Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 8–14 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.4–28.8% 23.9–29.4% 23.4–29.9% 22.4–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.8% 20.8–24.9% 20.2–25.5% 19.8–26.0% 18.9–27.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.9% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.3% 12.5–17.8% 11.7–18.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.4% 9.1–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.4–13.0% 7.8–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.0–8.5% 5.7–8.9% 5.4–9.3% 4.9–10.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.5% 4.5–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 4.0–7.5% 3.6–8.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.9% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.6–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.0% 1.9–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–51 42–53 41–53 39–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 37–44 37–45 37–47 34–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 23–30 23–31 22–31 20–34
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 15–22 14–23 13–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–16 9–16 8–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 10 8–12 7–12 3–13 3–14
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.6% 99.4%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 4% 97%  
43 7% 93%  
44 16% 86%  
45 10% 71% Last Result
46 13% 61% Median
47 13% 48%  
48 7% 35%  
49 5% 28%  
50 9% 23%  
51 5% 15%  
52 4% 9%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 0.5% 99.5%  
36 1.3% 99.0%  
37 9% 98%  
38 5% 89%  
39 11% 84%  
40 9% 73%  
41 20% 64% Median
42 18% 44%  
43 9% 27%  
44 8% 17%  
45 5% 9%  
46 1.1% 4%  
47 1.3% 3%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.7%  
21 1.4% 98.9%  
22 2% 98%  
23 6% 95%  
24 4% 90%  
25 18% 85%  
26 14% 68%  
27 15% 54% Last Result, Median
28 18% 39%  
29 7% 21%  
30 9% 14%  
31 3% 5%  
32 0.9% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.9%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.4%  
15 3% 96%  
16 8% 93%  
17 20% 85%  
18 21% 65% Median
19 17% 44% Last Result
20 11% 26%  
21 9% 15%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.2%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 11% 97%  
11 13% 86% Last Result
12 23% 72% Median
13 21% 50%  
14 15% 29%  
15 7% 14%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0.2% 97%  
7 4% 97%  
8 11% 94% Last Result
9 25% 82%  
10 25% 58% Median
11 17% 33%  
12 12% 16%  
13 3% 4%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 27% 98%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0.4% 72%  
7 18% 71%  
8 32% 53% Median
9 12% 21%  
10 6% 9%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 52% 99.2% Median
3 3% 47%  
4 0% 44%  
5 0% 44%  
6 0.1% 44%  
7 18% 44%  
8 19% 25% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 31% 99.6% Last Result
2 42% 68% Median
3 8% 26%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0.9% 18%  
7 9% 17%  
8 6% 8%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 101–111 99–113 98–113 96–116
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 95% 86–96 84–97 83–98 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 88 80% 83–93 81–95 79–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 48% 80–90 78–92 78–93 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 81 20% 76–86 74–88 74–90 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 5% 73–83 72–85 71–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 3% 73–83 71–84 70–85 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 75 0.5% 71–81 69–82 68–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.3% 69–79 68–81 67–81 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0.1% 67–77 66–78 65–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 71 0.1% 68–77 67–79 66–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–73 64–75 63–76 60–79
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 61 0% 56–66 55–67 54–68 51–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 59 0% 56–63 55–65 54–66 52–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–58 49–60 48–60 46–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–37 28–38 27–39 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.4% 99.5%  
97 1.1% 99.1%  
98 1.3% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 3% 95%  
101 4% 92%  
102 3% 89%  
103 6% 86% Median
104 10% 80%  
105 17% 69%  
106 10% 52%  
107 8% 42% Last Result
108 8% 34%  
109 7% 26%  
110 6% 19%  
111 4% 13%  
112 3% 9%  
113 4% 6%  
114 0.8% 2%  
115 0.8% 2%  
116 0.5% 0.8%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.9% 99.6%  
82 0.9% 98.8%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 8% 93%  
87 5% 85% Median
88 10% 80%  
89 10% 70% Last Result
90 5% 60%  
91 14% 54%  
92 14% 40%  
93 7% 26%  
94 6% 20%  
95 3% 13%  
96 3% 11%  
97 5% 8%  
98 1.4% 3%  
99 0.9% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.9% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 0.8% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 94%  
83 4% 91%  
84 7% 87%  
85 10% 80% Median, Majority
86 7% 70%  
87 10% 64%  
88 9% 54% Last Result
89 7% 44%  
90 15% 37%  
91 8% 22%  
92 3% 14%  
93 4% 11%  
94 1.2% 7%  
95 4% 6%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.8% 1.2%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.1%  
77 1.3% 98.8%  
78 3% 98%  
79 3% 94%  
80 10% 91%  
81 7% 82%  
82 6% 74%  
83 7% 68% Median
84 13% 61%  
85 8% 48% Majority
86 6% 39%  
87 13% 33%  
88 5% 20% Last Result
89 3% 16%  
90 3% 12%  
91 2% 9%  
92 4% 8%  
93 1.4% 3%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 1.0% 1.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.8% 99.6%  
73 0.8% 98.8%  
74 4% 98%  
75 1.2% 94%  
76 4% 93%  
77 3% 89%  
78 8% 86%  
79 15% 78%  
80 7% 63%  
81 9% 56% Last Result, Median
82 10% 46%  
83 7% 36%  
84 10% 30%  
85 7% 20% Majority
86 4% 13%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 0.8% 4%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.9% 1.3%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 0.9% 99.2%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 5% 97%  
73 3% 92%  
74 3% 89%  
75 6% 87%  
76 7% 80%  
77 14% 74%  
78 14% 60%  
79 5% 46% Median
80 10% 40% Last Result
81 10% 30%  
82 5% 20%  
83 8% 15%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.2%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 1.1% 99.1%  
70 0.7% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 2% 91%  
74 10% 89%  
75 9% 79% Median
76 10% 71%  
77 5% 61%  
78 9% 56%  
79 8% 47%  
80 10% 39% Last Result
81 8% 29%  
82 7% 21%  
83 9% 14%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.2% 99.1%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 94%  
71 13% 90%  
72 13% 77%  
73 6% 64% Median
74 6% 58%  
75 10% 52%  
76 8% 41%  
77 12% 34%  
78 4% 21%  
79 5% 17%  
80 2% 12% Last Result
81 2% 10%  
82 5% 8%  
83 1.4% 4%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 5% 94%  
70 9% 89%  
71 5% 80%  
72 19% 75% Last Result
73 10% 56% Median
74 19% 46%  
75 4% 28%  
76 4% 23%  
77 4% 19%  
78 4% 15%  
79 3% 12%  
80 3% 9%  
81 4% 5%  
82 0.5% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.1%  
65 2% 98.6%  
66 3% 97%  
67 7% 94%  
68 4% 87%  
69 7% 83%  
70 12% 75%  
71 10% 63% Median
72 8% 53%  
73 9% 44%  
74 9% 35%  
75 9% 27%  
76 8% 18%  
77 3% 10% Last Result
78 2% 7%  
79 1.3% 5%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.7% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 1.2% 99.2%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 8% 94%  
69 9% 85%  
70 19% 76%  
71 10% 57% Median
72 6% 47%  
73 6% 42%  
74 7% 35%  
75 13% 28%  
76 4% 15%  
77 3% 11%  
78 1.4% 8%  
79 4% 6% Last Result
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.1% 0.6%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 99.0%  
63 3% 98.5%  
64 2% 96%  
65 10% 94%  
66 6% 84%  
67 4% 77%  
68 18% 73%  
69 10% 55% Median
70 6% 45%  
71 13% 39%  
72 6% 26%  
73 12% 20%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 0.8% 3% Last Result
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.8%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.6%  
52 1.0% 99.4%  
53 0.8% 98%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 5% 92%  
57 3% 88%  
58 9% 84% Median
59 10% 76%  
60 11% 66%  
61 10% 55% Last Result
62 8% 45%  
63 10% 37%  
64 9% 27%  
65 6% 17%  
66 2% 11%  
67 6% 10%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.5%  
71 0.4% 0.8%  
72 0.3% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.5% 99.3%  
54 2% 98.8%  
55 4% 97%  
56 10% 93%  
57 15% 83%  
58 8% 68%  
59 17% 60% Median
60 7% 43%  
61 7% 36%  
62 9% 29%  
63 12% 20%  
64 2% 8%  
65 2% 6%  
66 1.5% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 1.2% 99.3%  
48 1.1% 98%  
49 5% 97%  
50 6% 92%  
51 10% 86%  
52 14% 76%  
53 9% 62% Median
54 16% 52%  
55 11% 37%  
56 9% 26%  
57 6% 17%  
58 3% 11%  
59 1.3% 8%  
60 4% 6% Last Result
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.8% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.5%  
25 0.6% 99.3%  
26 1.1% 98.7%  
27 2% 98%  
28 5% 96%  
29 5% 91%  
30 10% 86% Median
31 12% 77%  
32 13% 65%  
33 16% 52%  
34 11% 37%  
35 7% 25% Last Result
36 7% 18%  
37 5% 11%  
38 2% 6%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.1%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations