Opinion Poll by Sentio, 14–22 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.4% 26.3–30.6% 25.7–31.2% 25.2–31.8% 24.2–32.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.6–25.6% 21.0–26.2% 20.6–26.7% 19.7–27.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.0% 12.4–15.7% 12.0–16.2% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.7% 9.3–12.3% 8.9–12.7% 8.6–13.1% 8.0–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 6.9–9.5% 6.5–9.9% 6.2–10.2% 5.7–11.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.4% 1.6–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 52 48–56 47–58 46–60 44–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–47 39–48 38–50 36–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 23–30 22–31 21–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 16–24 16–24 14–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–18 12–19 10–20
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–9 1–9 1–10 0–11
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 0.9% 98.6% Last Result
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 5% 93%  
49 10% 87%  
50 11% 77%  
51 16% 66%  
52 14% 51% Median
53 7% 36%  
54 10% 29%  
55 6% 20%  
56 4% 13%  
57 3% 9%  
58 3% 7%  
59 0.9% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.2%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 6% 91%  
41 11% 85%  
42 13% 75%  
43 10% 62%  
44 18% 52% Median
45 14% 34%  
46 5% 21%  
47 9% 16%  
48 2% 7%  
49 0.9% 4% Last Result
50 2% 4%  
51 0.9% 1.3%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 3% 98.9%  
22 5% 96%  
23 6% 91%  
24 10% 85%  
25 16% 75%  
26 17% 59% Median
27 12% 42% Last Result
28 10% 31%  
29 9% 21%  
30 4% 12%  
31 6% 8%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 3% 98%  
17 9% 94%  
18 15% 85%  
19 15% 70% Last Result
20 21% 55% Median
21 11% 35%  
22 10% 23%  
23 6% 13%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.5% Last Result
12 7% 98%  
13 13% 90%  
14 14% 77%  
15 26% 63% Median
16 18% 36%  
17 10% 19%  
18 5% 8%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 12% 98%  
2 9% 86%  
3 40% 77% Median
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0% 36%  
7 4% 36%  
8 21% 33% Last Result
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100% Last Result
2 59% 86% Median
3 0% 27%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0.1% 27%  
7 5% 27%  
8 14% 22%  
9 6% 8%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 6% 99.7%  
2 79% 94% Median
3 2% 15%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 3% 13%  
8 7% 10% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 60% 98% Last Result, Median
2 28% 38%  
3 2% 10%  
4 0.4% 8%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 2% 7%  
8 5% 6%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 100–110 99–112 98–113 95–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 75% 81–92 81–94 79–95 77–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 60% 80–90 79–92 78–94 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 48% 80–90 79–91 77–92 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 83 40% 79–89 77–90 75–91 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 24% 77–88 75–88 74–90 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 13% 76–85 74–87 73–88 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 16% 76–86 74–87 73–88 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 5% 73–83 72–84 71–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 78 6% 73–83 72–85 70–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 69 0% 64–75 63–76 62–78 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 63–73 62–75 61–75 58–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 63 0% 59–69 57–70 56–71 54–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 59–67 58–69 57–70 55–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 54–65 53–66 53–68 50–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 54–63 53–64 52–65 50–68
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 27 0% 22–32 22–33 21–34 19–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.6% 99.6%  
96 0.4% 99.1%  
97 0.8% 98.6%  
98 1.5% 98%  
99 2% 96%  
100 7% 95%  
101 7% 87%  
102 9% 80%  
103 6% 71% Median
104 6% 65%  
105 9% 59%  
106 10% 51%  
107 13% 40% Last Result
108 5% 27%  
109 10% 22%  
110 4% 13%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 5%  
113 2% 3%  
114 0.7% 1.2%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.5%  
79 2% 99.0%  
80 1.1% 97%  
81 6% 96%  
82 2% 90%  
83 7% 87%  
84 5% 80% Median
85 9% 75% Majority
86 9% 67%  
87 8% 58%  
88 16% 50%  
89 7% 35% Last Result
90 6% 28%  
91 8% 22%  
92 4% 13%  
93 4% 10%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 0.6% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 6% 94%  
81 5% 87%  
82 8% 83%  
83 7% 75% Median
84 8% 68%  
85 10% 60% Majority
86 8% 50%  
87 17% 42%  
88 4% 25% Last Result
89 7% 22%  
90 5% 14%  
91 4% 10%  
92 2% 5%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 0.8% 1.3%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 0.4% 99.0%  
77 1.2% 98.6%  
78 2% 97%  
79 5% 95%  
80 6% 91%  
81 7% 85%  
82 9% 78%  
83 12% 69% Median
84 8% 57%  
85 5% 48% Majority
86 7% 43%  
87 8% 35%  
88 12% 27% Last Result
89 4% 15%  
90 4% 11%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.4% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.7%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.8% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 98.7%  
76 0.8% 97%  
77 2% 97%  
78 4% 95%  
79 5% 90%  
80 7% 85%  
81 4% 78% Last Result
82 17% 75% Median
83 8% 57%  
84 10% 49%  
85 8% 40% Majority
86 7% 31%  
87 8% 25%  
88 5% 17%  
89 6% 12%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.5% 99.6%  
73 1.0% 99.1%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 4% 94%  
77 4% 90%  
78 8% 86%  
79 6% 78%  
80 7% 72% Last Result
81 16% 65% Median
82 8% 49%  
83 9% 42%  
84 9% 33%  
85 5% 24% Majority
86 7% 20%  
87 2% 12%  
88 6% 10%  
89 1.1% 4%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.5% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.4%  
72 1.2% 98.8%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 4% 94%  
76 7% 90%  
77 8% 83%  
78 8% 76%  
79 8% 67%  
80 18% 59% Last Result, Median
81 9% 41%  
82 8% 32%  
83 7% 24%  
84 4% 17%  
85 6% 13% Majority
86 1.3% 7%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 0.9% 99.1%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 3% 94%  
76 5% 91%  
77 5% 86%  
78 8% 81%  
79 16% 74%  
80 8% 58% Last Result, Median
81 9% 49%  
82 4% 40%  
83 9% 36%  
84 11% 27%  
85 2% 16% Majority
86 5% 14%  
87 4% 9%  
88 3% 5%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.3%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 1.0% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 4% 90%  
75 9% 86%  
76 10% 78%  
77 9% 68%  
78 10% 59%  
79 16% 49% Last Result, Median
80 7% 34%  
81 8% 26%  
82 7% 18%  
83 2% 11%  
84 3% 8%  
85 1.1% 5% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.8% 99.3%  
70 1.1% 98.5%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95% Last Result
73 3% 92%  
74 6% 88%  
75 6% 83%  
76 8% 77%  
77 17% 69%  
78 9% 52% Median
79 9% 42%  
80 4% 33%  
81 8% 29%  
82 9% 21%  
83 2% 12%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.5% 1.2%  
88 0.5% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.6% 99.1%  
62 2% 98.5%  
63 4% 97%  
64 3% 93%  
65 4% 90%  
66 5% 86%  
67 8% 81%  
68 20% 73% Median
69 5% 54%  
70 6% 48%  
71 10% 43%  
72 7% 33%  
73 10% 26%  
74 3% 16%  
75 3% 12%  
76 5% 9%  
77 2% 5% Last Result
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.1%  
81 0.6% 0.7%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 99.3%  
60 1.0% 98.9%  
61 2% 98%  
62 5% 96%  
63 4% 91%  
64 5% 87%  
65 6% 82%  
66 15% 76%  
67 15% 62% Median
68 5% 46%  
69 5% 41%  
70 10% 36%  
71 8% 26%  
72 6% 18%  
73 4% 12%  
74 2% 8%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.1% 2% Last Result
77 0.6% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 4% 92%  
60 10% 87%  
61 5% 78%  
62 13% 72% Last Result, Median
63 10% 59%  
64 9% 49%  
65 6% 40%  
66 6% 35%  
67 9% 29%  
68 7% 20%  
69 7% 13%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.4% 4%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.3%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.7%  
56 1.0% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 8% 93%  
60 6% 85%  
61 6% 79%  
62 11% 73%  
63 11% 61%  
64 16% 50% Median
65 11% 34%  
66 6% 23%  
67 8% 17%  
68 4% 9% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 1.3% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 1.0% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.5% 99.2%  
52 0.9% 98.7%  
53 3% 98%  
54 6% 95%  
55 5% 88%  
56 13% 84%  
57 8% 70% Median
58 7% 62%  
59 11% 55%  
60 11% 44%  
61 6% 33% Last Result
62 6% 27%  
63 6% 20%  
64 3% 15%  
65 5% 12%  
66 2% 6%  
67 1.0% 4%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.5% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.9%  
71 0.3% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 1.1% 99.3%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 4% 93%  
55 7% 89%  
56 8% 83%  
57 12% 74%  
58 11% 62%  
59 16% 51% Median
60 16% 35% Last Result
61 4% 20%  
62 3% 15%  
63 5% 12%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.8% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.7%  
20 1.2% 99.2%  
21 3% 98%  
22 6% 95%  
23 11% 90%  
24 5% 79%  
25 14% 73% Median
26 5% 60%  
27 6% 55%  
28 11% 48%  
29 11% 37%  
30 7% 27%  
31 5% 20%  
32 7% 15%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.9% 2% Last Result
36 0.6% 1.4%  
37 0.4% 0.8%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations