Opinion Poll by Norstat, 22–28 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.4% 24.6–28.3% 24.1–28.8% 23.6–29.3% 22.8–30.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.4–26.0% 21.0–26.4% 20.1–27.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.9% 12.5–15.4% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.3% 11.2–17.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.6% 9.8–14.0% 9.2–14.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 5.9–8.8% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 45–52 44–53 43–54 41–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–47 40–47 39–48 37–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 23–29 22–30 21–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 19 22 19–24 18–25 17–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 9–17
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.2%  
43 2% 98%  
44 6% 96%  
45 11% 90% Last Result
46 14% 79%  
47 14% 65%  
48 11% 51% Median
49 14% 40%  
50 9% 26%  
51 3% 17%  
52 6% 13%  
53 3% 7%  
54 3% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 6% 96%  
41 6% 91%  
42 8% 85%  
43 19% 77%  
44 17% 57% Median
45 16% 40%  
46 6% 24%  
47 13% 18%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.0% 2% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.6%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 5% 97%  
23 6% 91%  
24 16% 86%  
25 23% 70% Median
26 11% 47%  
27 11% 36% Last Result
28 13% 26%  
29 7% 13%  
30 5% 6%  
31 0.7% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.5%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 6% 97%  
19 6% 92% Last Result
20 11% 85%  
21 21% 74%  
22 22% 53% Median
23 18% 31%  
24 7% 13%  
25 3% 6%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.1%  
11 12% 96% Last Result
12 19% 84%  
13 27% 65% Median
14 18% 38%  
15 10% 20%  
16 8% 11%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100%  
2 2% 98.7%  
3 33% 97%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0.1% 64%  
7 10% 64%  
8 28% 54% Last Result, Median
9 19% 26%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 38% 99.9%  
3 13% 62% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 7% 49%  
8 28% 42% Last Result
9 11% 14%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 66% 97% Median
3 0% 32%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0% 32%  
7 10% 32%  
8 14% 21%  
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 71% 96% Last Result, Median
2 22% 25%  
3 0.5% 2%  
4 0.1% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.9% 2%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 102–111 101–112 99–113 97–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 75% 82–92 80–94 77–94 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 86 73% 82–91 80–92 79–93 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 56% 81–90 79–91 78–92 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 43% 79–88 78–90 77–91 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 83 27% 78–87 77–89 76–90 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 10% 75–84 74–86 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 3% 74–83 73–84 72–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 4% 73–83 73–84 71–85 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.1% 69–78 68–79 68–81 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0% 69–78 67–80 65–80 64–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 67–76 65–78 64–78 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 54–64 53–66 52–67 51–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–61 52–62 50–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–38 28–39 26–40 24–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 1.0% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 98.7%  
99 1.0% 98%  
100 2% 97%  
101 5% 95%  
102 3% 91%  
103 3% 88%  
104 9% 85%  
105 13% 76%  
106 10% 63% Median
107 12% 53% Last Result
108 11% 41%  
109 5% 30%  
110 10% 25%  
111 6% 15%  
112 4% 8%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.3% 2%  
115 0.5% 0.7%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.4%  
78 0.8% 97%  
79 1.5% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 2% 93%  
82 3% 90%  
83 6% 87%  
84 6% 81%  
85 16% 75% Majority
86 16% 59%  
87 9% 43%  
88 7% 34% Last Result, Median
89 5% 26%  
90 6% 21%  
91 4% 14%  
92 4% 10%  
93 0.7% 6%  
94 5% 5%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.5% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.5%  
76 0.1% 99.4%  
77 0.2% 99.3%  
78 0.5% 99.1%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 2% 96%  
81 3% 95%  
82 4% 92%  
83 7% 88%  
84 8% 81%  
85 14% 73% Median, Majority
86 12% 59%  
87 5% 47%  
88 13% 42%  
89 7% 29% Last Result
90 8% 22%  
91 7% 14%  
92 3% 7%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.5% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.4%  
75 0.2% 99.4%  
76 0.4% 99.2%  
77 1.1% 98.8%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 2% 93%  
81 8% 90%  
82 3% 83%  
83 8% 80%  
84 15% 71% Median
85 12% 56% Majority
86 5% 44%  
87 13% 39%  
88 6% 26% Last Result
89 8% 20%  
90 6% 12%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.8% 1.5%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 6% 94%  
80 8% 88%  
81 6% 80% Last Result
82 13% 74% Median
83 5% 61%  
84 12% 55%  
85 15% 43% Majority
86 8% 29%  
87 3% 20%  
88 8% 17%  
89 2% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.6%  
96 0.5% 0.6%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 1.2% 99.1%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 7% 93%  
79 8% 86%  
80 7% 78% Last Result
81 13% 71% Median
82 5% 58%  
83 12% 53%  
84 14% 41%  
85 8% 27% Majority
86 7% 19%  
87 4% 12%  
88 3% 8%  
89 1.5% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.5% 1.4%  
92 0.2% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.6%  
95 0.5% 0.5%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.1%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 97%  
75 5% 93%  
76 3% 89%  
77 13% 85%  
78 12% 72%  
79 5% 60%  
80 12% 56% Last Result, Median
81 6% 43%  
82 8% 37%  
83 14% 29%  
84 5% 15%  
85 2% 10% Majority
86 6% 8%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.8%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 4% 92%  
75 5% 88%  
76 13% 83%  
77 12% 70%  
78 6% 58%  
79 12% 52% Last Result, Median
80 6% 40%  
81 8% 34%  
82 13% 27%  
83 5% 13%  
84 6% 8%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.3% 1.2%  
87 0.6% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 1.2% 99.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 0.8% 96%  
73 6% 95%  
74 2% 90%  
75 8% 88%  
76 7% 80% Median
77 9% 73%  
78 9% 64%  
79 8% 55%  
80 10% 47% Last Result
81 14% 37%  
82 11% 23%  
83 4% 12%  
84 5% 9%  
85 1.3% 4% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.7% 99.4%  
67 1.1% 98.7%  
68 5% 98%  
69 5% 92%  
70 14% 87%  
71 3% 73%  
72 8% 70% Last Result
73 13% 62% Median
74 11% 49%  
75 10% 39%  
76 5% 29%  
77 4% 24%  
78 11% 21%  
79 5% 9%  
80 1.3% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.5% 1.1%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 1.5% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 4% 91%  
70 8% 86%  
71 5% 78%  
72 13% 74%  
73 18% 61%  
74 10% 43%  
75 6% 33% Median
76 14% 27%  
77 3% 13% Last Result
78 2% 11%  
79 3% 9%  
80 5% 6%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 2% 94%  
67 3% 92%  
68 5% 89%  
69 7% 84%  
70 6% 77%  
71 13% 71%  
72 17% 58%  
73 11% 41%  
74 6% 31% Median
75 13% 25%  
76 2% 12% Last Result
77 3% 10%  
78 6% 7%  
79 0.7% 1.0%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.2%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 6% 94%  
62 5% 88%  
63 7% 83%  
64 16% 76%  
65 12% 60%  
66 11% 48% Median
67 9% 38%  
68 7% 28% Last Result
69 11% 21%  
70 7% 10%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.5%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 7% 90%  
56 6% 83%  
57 7% 76%  
58 12% 69%  
59 9% 57% Median
60 6% 48%  
61 9% 42% Last Result
62 10% 34%  
63 11% 23%  
64 4% 12%  
65 3% 8%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 0.3% 2%  
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 1.4% 98.9%  
52 4% 98%  
53 4% 94%  
54 8% 90%  
55 12% 82%  
56 16% 70%  
57 7% 54% Median
58 12% 47%  
59 11% 35%  
60 11% 23% Last Result
61 10% 13%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 1.0% 99.5%  
25 0.9% 98%  
26 1.2% 98%  
27 1.4% 96%  
28 12% 95%  
29 4% 83%  
30 8% 80%  
31 5% 72%  
32 12% 67%  
33 8% 55% Median
34 9% 47%  
35 9% 38% Last Result
36 7% 29%  
37 7% 23%  
38 9% 16%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations