Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 28–30 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.1% 25.2–29.0% 24.7–29.5% 24.3–30.0% 23.5–30.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.9% 21.2–24.7% 20.7–25.3% 20.3–25.7% 19.5–26.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.1% 11.8–15.5% 11.5–15.9% 10.9–16.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.5–12.9% 9.2–13.3% 8.7–14.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.3% 6.1–9.6% 5.7–10.2%
Venstre 4.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 46–53 44–53 44–54 42–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–45 38–45 38–46 36–48
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–30
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Venstre 8 11 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–7 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 0.9% 99.4%  
44 4% 98.6%  
45 4% 95% Last Result
46 5% 90%  
47 16% 85%  
48 10% 69%  
49 14% 59% Median
50 10% 45%  
51 10% 35%  
52 13% 25%  
53 9% 13%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 98%  
39 3% 94%  
40 8% 90%  
41 12% 83%  
42 11% 71%  
43 21% 60% Median
44 26% 39%  
45 9% 13%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.6% 1.2%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.2% 99.6%  
21 4% 98%  
22 13% 95%  
23 17% 82%  
24 24% 65% Median
25 21% 40%  
26 10% 19%  
27 5% 10% Last Result
28 2% 4%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.8%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.7%  
17 6% 98.7%  
18 11% 93%  
19 18% 82% Last Result
20 29% 64% Median
21 17% 34%  
22 11% 18%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.9%  
11 5% 98.9% Last Result
12 15% 94%  
13 24% 79%  
14 24% 55% Median
15 18% 31%  
16 9% 13%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 5% 99.5% Last Result
9 12% 94%  
10 27% 83%  
11 22% 55% Median
12 20% 34%  
13 11% 14%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 4% 99.7%  
2 8% 95%  
3 50% 88% Median
4 0% 37%  
5 0% 37%  
6 0.1% 37%  
7 13% 37%  
8 18% 24% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 42% 100% Last Result
2 46% 58% Median
3 0% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 6% 12%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 61% 98.6% Last Result, Median
2 31% 37%  
3 0.6% 6%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 109 100% 105–113 104–114 102–115 100–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 96% 87–95 85–96 84–97 82–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 89 92% 85–93 83–94 83–95 80–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 85 53% 80–88 78–89 77–90 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 82 25% 79–87 77–88 76–90 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 80 8% 76–84 75–86 74–86 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 4% 74–82 73–84 72–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 1.2% 74–81 72–82 72–83 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 0.2% 72–79 71–80 70–81 68–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 69–78 68–78 67–79 65–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 69 0% 65–73 64–75 62–76 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 63–71 62–73 60–73 59–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 65 0% 61–69 59–70 58–71 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 58–65 57–66 57–66 55–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–59 51–60 50–61 49–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 36 0% 32–39 31–41 30–41 28–43

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.7% 99.8%  
101 0.8% 99.1%  
102 2% 98%  
103 1.1% 97%  
104 3% 96%  
105 6% 93%  
106 6% 86%  
107 7% 80% Last Result, Median
108 17% 74%  
109 18% 57%  
110 13% 39%  
111 9% 26%  
112 7% 17%  
113 4% 10%  
114 3% 6%  
115 1.3% 3%  
116 1.0% 2%  
117 0.3% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.8% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 98.9%  
84 3% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 1.1% 94%  
87 6% 93%  
88 6% 87% Median
89 23% 80% Last Result
90 10% 58%  
91 13% 47%  
92 12% 34%  
93 6% 22%  
94 6% 16%  
95 3% 10%  
96 4% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 1.0% 99.3%  
82 0.8% 98%  
83 3% 98%  
84 3% 95%  
85 5% 92% Majority
86 5% 87%  
87 8% 82% Median
88 23% 74% Last Result
89 17% 51%  
90 5% 34%  
91 13% 29%  
92 4% 16%  
93 6% 12%  
94 2% 7%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 2% 99.4%  
78 3% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 6% 91% Last Result
81 11% 85%  
82 5% 74%  
83 6% 68%  
84 9% 62% Median
85 13% 53% Majority
86 17% 40%  
87 5% 23%  
88 12% 18%  
89 2% 6%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 1.2% 99.4%  
76 1.2% 98%  
77 4% 97%  
78 2% 93%  
79 5% 91%  
80 13% 87%  
81 7% 74% Median
82 21% 66%  
83 14% 45%  
84 6% 32%  
85 5% 25% Majority
86 4% 20%  
87 10% 16%  
88 3% 6% Last Result
89 0.9% 3%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.7%  
73 1.0% 99.0%  
74 3% 98%  
75 2% 95%  
76 6% 93%  
77 4% 88%  
78 13% 84%  
79 5% 71%  
80 17% 66% Median
81 23% 49% Last Result
82 8% 26%  
83 5% 18%  
84 5% 13%  
85 3% 8% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.6% 99.9%  
71 1.2% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 3% 93%  
75 6% 90%  
76 6% 84%  
77 12% 78%  
78 13% 66%  
79 10% 53% Median
80 23% 42% Last Result
81 6% 20%  
82 6% 13%  
83 1.1% 7%  
84 2% 6%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 0.4% 2%  
87 0.8% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.9% 99.5%  
71 0.9% 98.6%  
72 3% 98%  
73 3% 94%  
74 7% 92%  
75 5% 85%  
76 7% 80%  
77 12% 73%  
78 7% 60% Median
79 22% 53%  
80 18% 31% Last Result
81 5% 13%  
82 5% 9%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 99.0%  
70 3% 98%  
71 3% 95%  
72 4% 92%  
73 7% 88%  
74 7% 80%  
75 6% 73%  
76 13% 67%  
77 13% 54% Median
78 17% 41%  
79 16% 25% Last Result
80 5% 8%  
81 1.4% 3%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 0.8% 99.4%  
67 2% 98.6%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 93%  
70 10% 88%  
71 7% 78%  
72 8% 71% Last Result
73 17% 62% Median
74 7% 46%  
75 10% 39%  
76 11% 29%  
77 5% 18%  
78 8% 12%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.5%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 1.4% 97%  
64 4% 96%  
65 5% 91%  
66 12% 87%  
67 5% 75% Median
68 13% 69%  
69 21% 56%  
70 8% 36%  
71 6% 27%  
72 10% 21%  
73 3% 12%  
74 4% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 2% 99.2%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 95%  
63 4% 93%  
64 5% 89%  
65 13% 84%  
66 8% 72% Median
67 20% 63%  
68 16% 43%  
69 7% 28%  
70 5% 20%  
71 9% 16%  
72 2% 7%  
73 3% 5%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 91% Last Result
62 8% 88%  
63 12% 80% Median
64 10% 68%  
65 25% 59%  
66 13% 34%  
67 5% 21%  
68 5% 16%  
69 6% 11%  
70 1.5% 5%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.9% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 4% 98%  
58 5% 94%  
59 5% 90%  
60 9% 85%  
61 5% 76%  
62 16% 71%  
63 8% 55% Median
64 24% 47%  
65 14% 23%  
66 7% 10%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 1.0% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 2% 97%  
52 5% 95%  
53 5% 90%  
54 9% 85%  
55 9% 76%  
56 12% 67%  
57 25% 55% Median
58 9% 30%  
59 14% 21%  
60 4% 7% Last Result
61 1.3% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 1.1% 99.3%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 12% 92%  
33 12% 81%  
34 10% 69% Median
35 5% 59% Last Result
36 15% 54%  
37 13% 39%  
38 12% 26%  
39 7% 14%  
40 3% 8%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations