Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 28 May–1 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.5% 22.5–26.6% 22.0–27.2% 21.5–27.7% 20.6–28.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.5–25.5% 20.9–26.1% 20.5–26.6% 19.6–27.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.4% 10.9–14.0% 10.5–14.5% 10.2–14.9% 9.5–15.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.3% 9.9–12.9% 9.5–13.4% 9.2–13.8% 8.6–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.5% 7.3–9.9% 7.0–10.3% 6.7–10.7% 6.1–11.4%
Rødt 2.4% 5.6% 4.7–6.9% 4.4–7.2% 4.2–7.5% 3.8–8.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.7%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 39–47 38–48 37–49 36–50
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 40–45 39–46 38–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–25 18–26 17–27 16–28
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–23 17–23 16–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Rødt 1 10 8–12 7–12 7–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 7–11 7–12 3–12 3–13
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 3% 98.7%  
38 2% 96%  
39 5% 94%  
40 3% 89%  
41 6% 85%  
42 14% 79%  
43 15% 65%  
44 17% 50% Median
45 12% 33% Last Result
46 9% 21%  
47 5% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 11% 90%  
41 30% 79% Median
42 13% 49%  
43 11% 36%  
44 10% 26%  
45 9% 16%  
46 3% 7%  
47 1.4% 4%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 1.0% 2% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.7%  
17 2% 98.9%  
18 4% 97%  
19 13% 93%  
20 11% 80%  
21 12% 70%  
22 24% 58% Median
23 6% 34%  
24 12% 28%  
25 7% 16%  
26 6% 9%  
27 2% 3% Last Result
28 0.6% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 2% 98%  
17 8% 96%  
18 19% 89%  
19 30% 70% Last Result, Median
20 12% 40%  
21 10% 28%  
22 6% 17%  
23 7% 12%  
24 3% 5%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.7% 1.0%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.2% Last Result
12 9% 96%  
13 14% 87%  
14 17% 73%  
15 21% 56% Median
16 19% 34%  
17 8% 15%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.3% 100%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0.1% 98.7%  
7 5% 98.6%  
8 10% 94%  
9 21% 84%  
10 30% 62% Median
11 21% 32%  
12 8% 11%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.8% 1.1%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 3% 99.7%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0.4% 96%  
7 7% 96%  
8 23% 89% Last Result
9 33% 66% Median
10 15% 33%  
11 12% 19%  
12 5% 7%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 32% 100%  
3 0.7% 67%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0.1% 67%  
7 13% 67%  
8 22% 53% Last Result, Median
9 24% 32%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 40% 99.1% Last Result
2 44% 59% Median
3 0.8% 15%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 1.4% 14%  
7 8% 13%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–104 94–106 93–107 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 88 90% 84–93 83–95 82–96 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 83% 84–92 83–94 81–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 77% 82–91 80–92 79–94 77–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 83 23% 78–87 77–89 75–90 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 81 10% 76–84 74–86 73–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 6% 75–83 74–85 72–86 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 1.2% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0.3% 69–77 68–79 67–81 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 67–75 66–76 65–77 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 61–69 59–70 58–72 55–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 58–65 57–67 56–68 55–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 54–63 53–64 52–65 48–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–61 52–61 51–63 49–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 35 0% 30–39 29–41 28–41 25–44

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.7%  
91 0.8% 99.5%  
92 0.9% 98.7%  
93 2% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 4% 94%  
96 6% 90%  
97 5% 84%  
98 9% 80%  
99 10% 71%  
100 8% 61%  
101 21% 53%  
102 11% 32% Median
103 7% 21%  
104 7% 14%  
105 2% 7%  
106 3% 5%  
107 1.3% 3% Last Result
108 0.5% 1.3%  
109 0.6% 0.8%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.6% 99.7%  
81 1.1% 99.1% Last Result
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 4% 94%  
85 4% 90% Majority
86 10% 86%  
87 23% 76% Median
88 12% 53%  
89 7% 41%  
90 11% 35%  
91 4% 23%  
92 4% 19%  
93 7% 16%  
94 2% 9%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.4%  
81 1.3% 98%  
82 1.4% 96%  
83 4% 95%  
84 8% 91%  
85 14% 83% Majority
86 11% 68% Median
87 6% 57%  
88 13% 51% Last Result
89 8% 38%  
90 9% 30%  
91 5% 21%  
92 7% 16%  
93 3% 9%  
94 1.5% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.6% 1.2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 1.3% 99.2%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 2% 97% Last Result
81 3% 94%  
82 5% 92%  
83 6% 87%  
84 4% 81%  
85 21% 77% Median, Majority
86 17% 55%  
87 8% 39%  
88 8% 31%  
89 7% 23%  
90 2% 15%  
91 7% 14%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.5% 3%  
95 0.3% 1.1%  
96 0.4% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.2%  
75 1.5% 98.9%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 7% 94%  
79 2% 86%  
80 7% 85%  
81 8% 77%  
82 8% 69%  
83 17% 61%  
84 21% 45%  
85 4% 23% Median, Majority
86 6% 19%  
87 5% 13%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 6% Last Result
90 1.3% 3%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.3%  
72 0.7% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 2% 93%  
76 7% 91%  
77 4% 84%  
78 4% 81%  
79 11% 77%  
80 7% 65%  
81 12% 59%  
82 23% 47%  
83 10% 24% Median
84 4% 14%  
85 4% 10% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.1% 2% Last Result
89 0.6% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.4%  
72 1.2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 16% 89%  
77 20% 73% Median
78 8% 53%  
79 7% 46%  
80 11% 38% Last Result
81 7% 27%  
82 6% 20%  
83 6% 14%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.9%  
69 1.1% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 5% 94%  
73 4% 89%  
74 9% 85%  
75 25% 76% Median
76 10% 51%  
77 7% 42%  
78 4% 34%  
79 14% 30% Last Result
80 4% 16%  
81 6% 12%  
82 3% 6%  
83 0.8% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.4%  
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 9% 94%  
70 6% 85%  
71 15% 79% Median
72 15% 65%  
73 7% 49%  
74 14% 42%  
75 6% 28%  
76 8% 22%  
77 4% 14% Last Result
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 0.4% 1.4%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 99.2%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 5% 94%  
67 6% 89%  
68 4% 84%  
69 4% 80%  
70 11% 76%  
71 10% 65%  
72 11% 54%  
73 14% 43%  
74 11% 29% Median
75 7% 18%  
76 3% 11%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.7% 1.5%  
80 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.4%  
64 0.9% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 6% 93%  
68 9% 86%  
69 14% 77% Median
70 15% 63%  
71 11% 48%  
72 12% 37%  
73 7% 24%  
74 7% 17%  
75 5% 11%  
76 2% 6% Last Result
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.4%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 95%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 91%  
62 4% 88%  
63 6% 83%  
64 20% 77%  
65 13% 57%  
66 8% 44% Median
67 8% 36%  
68 13% 28%  
69 6% 15%  
70 5% 9%  
71 0.9% 4%  
72 2% 3% Last Result
73 0.7% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 12% 89%  
60 17% 77% Median
61 9% 60%  
62 15% 51%  
63 16% 36%  
64 4% 20%  
65 8% 17%  
66 3% 9%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.2% 3% Last Result
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 0.4% 99.1%  
51 1.2% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 4% 92%  
55 7% 87%  
56 8% 80%  
57 10% 72%  
58 7% 63%  
59 10% 55%  
60 15% 46%  
61 10% 31% Last Result, Median
62 7% 21%  
63 8% 14%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 4% 97%  
53 4% 93%  
54 12% 90%  
55 8% 78%  
56 20% 70% Median
57 15% 49%  
58 8% 34%  
59 5% 26%  
60 10% 21% Last Result
61 6% 11%  
62 1.4% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 0.2% 99.6%  
26 0.2% 99.5%  
27 0.5% 99.3%  
28 3% 98.8%  
29 2% 96%  
30 7% 94%  
31 9% 87%  
32 5% 78%  
33 7% 73%  
34 7% 65%  
35 10% 58% Last Result
36 11% 49% Median
37 15% 37%  
38 10% 22%  
39 4% 12%  
40 2% 8%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.5% 1.1%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations