Opinion Poll by Norstat, 27 May–4 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.5% 25.7–29.5% 25.2–30.0% 24.8–30.5% 23.9–31.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.6–25.2% 21.1–25.7% 20.7–26.2% 19.9–27.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.1% 11.1–15.5% 10.5–16.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.8% 6.2–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.5–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.0–6.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 46–57 44–58 42–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 39–44 39–45 39–47 38–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–26 20–28 20–29 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–22 17–22 17–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 12–16 11–16 10–16 9–18
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 3–8 2–8 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–3 1–7 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.9% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.1%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 1.2% 96% Last Result
46 15% 95%  
47 3% 80%  
48 6% 77%  
49 19% 71%  
50 28% 52% Median
51 10% 24%  
52 2% 14%  
53 0.6% 12%  
54 4% 11%  
55 0.8% 7%  
56 1.2% 6%  
57 0.2% 5%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 24% 98%  
40 28% 73% Median
41 16% 45%  
42 9% 30%  
43 5% 21%  
44 9% 16%  
45 3% 7%  
46 0.9% 4%  
47 1.5% 3%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 0.7% 99.4%  
20 4% 98.7%  
21 3% 94%  
22 7% 91%  
23 5% 84%  
24 23% 79%  
25 37% 56% Median
26 10% 20%  
27 5% 10% Last Result
28 2% 5%  
29 0.6% 3%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 10% 98%  
18 8% 88%  
19 25% 80% Last Result
20 11% 55% Median
21 29% 43%  
22 10% 14%  
23 1.5% 5%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.9%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 2% 98.7%  
11 4% 96% Last Result
12 16% 93%  
13 50% 77% Median
14 8% 26%  
15 7% 18%  
16 9% 11%  
17 1.1% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.5%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 18% 99.8%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0.2% 82%  
7 3% 82%  
8 33% 78% Median
9 14% 46%  
10 29% 31%  
11 1.0% 3%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 27% 100%  
3 0.8% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 7% 73%  
8 44% 66% Last Result, Median
9 17% 22%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.4% 0.8%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 3% 99.8%  
2 5% 96%  
3 61% 91% Median
4 0% 30%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0% 30%  
7 8% 30%  
8 18% 22% Last Result
9 2% 4%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 20% 99.9% Last Result
2 69% 80% Median
3 2% 11%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 1.1% 9%  
7 3% 8%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 100–107 99–110 97–112 95–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 80% 83–91 81–93 80–94 79–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 83 30% 80–89 79–91 78–92 77–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 79 18% 77–88 77–91 76–92 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 70% 80–89 78–90 77–91 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 20% 78–86 76–88 75–89 74–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 7% 75–83 73–86 71–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 75 3% 72–81 72–83 72–85 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 73 0.5% 70–79 70–80 68–82 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 2% 69–78 68–80 67–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 66 0% 64–74 64–76 62–77 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 64 0% 62–70 61–74 60–74 58–76
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 61 0% 56–64 55–65 54–68 52–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 60 0% 58–64 57–66 57–67 56–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 52–60 51–60 50–61 49–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 27–34 24–35 23–36 21–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 1.5% 99.4%  
97 0.5% 98%  
98 1.1% 97%  
99 4% 96%  
100 4% 93%  
101 2% 89%  
102 6% 87%  
103 5% 81%  
104 24% 77%  
105 8% 52%  
106 10% 44% Median
107 26% 34% Last Result
108 1.3% 8%  
109 0.7% 7%  
110 2% 6%  
111 0.2% 4%  
112 3% 4%  
113 1.2% 1.5%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.2% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 2% 99.6%  
80 2% 98%  
81 2% 95%  
82 2% 93%  
83 1.4% 91%  
84 10% 90%  
85 4% 80% Majority
86 2% 76%  
87 18% 73%  
88 29% 55% Median
89 11% 26% Last Result
90 2% 15%  
91 4% 13%  
92 4% 10%  
93 3% 6%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.6%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 95%  
80 4% 93%  
81 5% 89% Last Result
82 5% 84%  
83 32% 80% Median
84 17% 48%  
85 3% 30% Majority
86 4% 27%  
87 10% 23%  
88 2% 13%  
89 5% 11%  
90 0.8% 6%  
91 3% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.2% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 98%  
77 16% 97%  
78 28% 81% Median
79 3% 53%  
80 20% 50%  
81 2% 29%  
82 5% 28%  
83 3% 23%  
84 2% 20%  
85 0.7% 18% Majority
86 0.3% 18%  
87 1.3% 17%  
88 7% 16% Last Result
89 2% 9%  
90 1.2% 6%  
91 2% 5%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.6% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.2% 99.5%  
77 2% 99.3%  
78 3% 97%  
79 0.8% 95%  
80 5% 94%  
81 2% 89%  
82 10% 87%  
83 4% 77%  
84 3% 73%  
85 17% 70% Majority
86 32% 52% Median
87 5% 20%  
88 5% 16% Last Result
89 4% 11%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 5%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 1.2% 99.6%  
75 1.3% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 94%  
78 4% 90%  
79 2% 87%  
80 11% 85% Last Result
81 29% 74% Median
82 18% 45%  
83 2% 27%  
84 4% 24%  
85 10% 20% Majority
86 1.4% 10%  
87 2% 9%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 98%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 1.2% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 0.9% 89%  
77 5% 88%  
78 2% 83%  
79 18% 81%  
80 7% 63% Last Result
81 1.1% 56%  
82 19% 55%  
83 27% 36% Median
84 2% 9%  
85 0.6% 7% Majority
86 2% 7%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 10% 98%  
73 2% 88%  
74 16% 86%  
75 26% 70% Median
76 5% 44%  
77 11% 39%  
78 3% 28%  
79 7% 26%  
80 1.3% 19% Last Result
81 9% 18%  
82 2% 8%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.1% 4%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.3% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.6%  
89 0% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.7% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.1%  
69 1.2% 97%  
70 8% 96%  
71 4% 88%  
72 15% 84%  
73 28% 69% Median
74 3% 41%  
75 13% 38%  
76 3% 25%  
77 3% 22%  
78 5% 19%  
79 8% 14% Last Result
80 0.5% 5%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.5% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 1.1% 99.6%  
67 2% 98%  
68 1.4% 96%  
69 5% 95%  
70 3% 89%  
71 12% 87%  
72 4% 75% Last Result
73 18% 71%  
74 2% 53%  
75 27% 50% Median
76 2% 23%  
77 6% 20%  
78 7% 15%  
79 0.4% 7%  
80 3% 7%  
81 0.6% 4%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0% 2%  
84 0% 2%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.7%  
63 1.0% 97%  
64 16% 96%  
65 25% 80% Median
66 8% 55%  
67 9% 47%  
68 11% 38%  
69 3% 27%  
70 1.5% 24%  
71 4% 23%  
72 8% 19%  
73 1.1% 11%  
74 2% 10%  
75 2% 8%  
76 2% 6%  
77 3% 4% Last Result
78 0.2% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.4%  
80 0.1% 1.1%  
81 0.9% 1.0%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.9%  
61 2% 97%  
62 15% 95%  
63 25% 80% Median
64 8% 55%  
65 10% 46%  
66 7% 36%  
67 8% 29%  
68 2% 21%  
69 4% 20%  
70 6% 15%  
71 2% 9%  
72 2% 8%  
73 0.8% 6%  
74 4% 5%  
75 0.2% 1.1%  
76 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 1.0% 98.9%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 8% 94%  
57 2% 85%  
58 5% 83%  
59 4% 79%  
60 3% 75%  
61 44% 71% Last Result, Median
62 14% 28%  
63 3% 14%  
64 5% 10%  
65 1.0% 5%  
66 0.4% 4%  
67 0.6% 4%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.3% 1.4%  
70 0.1% 1.1%  
71 0.9% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.7%  
57 4% 98%  
58 6% 94%  
59 21% 88%  
60 23% 68% Median
61 12% 44%  
62 8% 33%  
63 10% 25%  
64 7% 15%  
65 1.2% 8%  
66 4% 7%  
67 0.7% 3%  
68 1.3% 2% Last Result
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 1.3% 99.7%  
50 2% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 27% 95%  
53 33% 67% Median
54 4% 35%  
55 5% 31%  
56 5% 26%  
57 2% 20%  
58 4% 19%  
59 4% 15%  
60 8% 11% Last Result
61 1.5% 3%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.2% 1.1%  
64 0.5% 0.9%  
65 0% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.6%  
22 0.5% 99.3%  
23 3% 98.8%  
24 1.3% 96%  
25 3% 95%  
26 0.5% 91%  
27 6% 91%  
28 7% 85%  
29 3% 78%  
30 1.4% 76%  
31 24% 74% Median
32 28% 51%  
33 8% 22%  
34 8% 14%  
35 3% 5% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 0.4% 1.1%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations