Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 31 May–4 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 22.9–30.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 43–52 43–54 42–54 41–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 38–43 37–45 36–46 34–48
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 17–24 17–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 10–17 10–17 10–18
Rødt 1 9 2–11 2–12 2–12 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 3–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 4% 99.1%  
43 7% 95%  
44 10% 88%  
45 9% 78% Last Result
46 9% 69%  
47 19% 60% Median
48 4% 41%  
49 13% 37%  
50 6% 25%  
51 6% 19%  
52 3% 12%  
53 2% 9%  
54 5% 7%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.6%  
35 1.5% 99.4%  
36 0.7% 98%  
37 5% 97%  
38 7% 92%  
39 9% 85%  
40 23% 75%  
41 21% 52% Median
42 12% 31%  
43 11% 19%  
44 2% 8%  
45 3% 7%  
46 1.3% 3%  
47 0.2% 2%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.7%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 2% 98%  
24 5% 95%  
25 16% 90%  
26 9% 74%  
27 22% 65% Last Result, Median
28 14% 43%  
29 12% 29%  
30 7% 16%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.5%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 9% 98%  
18 12% 89%  
19 20% 76% Last Result
20 16% 56% Median
21 19% 41%  
22 8% 21%  
23 8% 14%  
24 4% 6%  
25 0.8% 2%  
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 6% 99.8%  
11 8% 94% Last Result
12 6% 86%  
13 22% 80%  
14 19% 58% Median
15 12% 39%  
16 18% 27%  
17 8% 9%  
18 0.6% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.5%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 18% 100%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 5% 82%  
8 22% 77%  
9 21% 55% Median
10 18% 35%  
11 10% 16%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 1.4% 99.9%  
2 5% 98.6%  
3 46% 93% Median
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0% 47%  
7 8% 47%  
8 23% 39% Last Result
9 9% 15%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 59% 99.6% Median
3 2% 41%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 10% 39%  
8 20% 29% Last Result
9 8% 9%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 49% 98% Last Result, Median
2 41% 49%  
3 2% 8%  
4 0.1% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0.3% 7%  
7 4% 7%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 104 100% 100–109 98–111 96–112 96–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 86 64% 82–91 78–93 78–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 85 52% 79–91 77–93 77–93 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 84 48% 78–89 76–91 76–92 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 83 36% 78–87 76–91 75–91 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 82 28% 77–88 75–89 74–89 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 7% 73–84 73–86 73–88 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 76 4% 71–82 70–84 69–85 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.3% 71–80 69–81 68–82 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.3% 70–80 69–81 68–81 65–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 68 0% 62–74 61–75 61–75 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 66 0% 61–71 60–73 59–73 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 61 0% 57–65 56–65 55–67 53–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 51–62 49–63 49–66 49–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–59 49–60 48–60 47–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–34 24–35 23–36 21–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.4% 99.9%  
96 3% 99.6%  
97 0.3% 97%  
98 5% 97%  
99 1.2% 91% Median
100 6% 90%  
101 5% 84%  
102 4% 80%  
103 13% 76%  
104 17% 62%  
105 13% 45%  
106 3% 33%  
107 7% 29% Last Result
108 6% 23%  
109 7% 17%  
110 1.5% 10%  
111 5% 8%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.4% 1.0%  
114 0.1% 0.6%  
115 0.2% 0.5%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 5% 99.7%  
79 2% 94%  
80 0.4% 93% Median
81 0.7% 92%  
82 2% 91%  
83 8% 89%  
84 17% 81%  
85 11% 64% Majority
86 4% 53%  
87 6% 49%  
88 14% 43%  
89 9% 28% Last Result
90 6% 19%  
91 5% 14%  
92 2% 9%  
93 5% 7%  
94 0.7% 3%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.1% 0.6%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 1.1% 99.4%  
76 0.6% 98%  
77 3% 98%  
78 3% 95%  
79 2% 92%  
80 6% 90%  
81 5% 84% Last Result
82 10% 78%  
83 10% 69%  
84 7% 59%  
85 7% 52% Median, Majority
86 19% 45%  
87 10% 26%  
88 3% 16%  
89 1.3% 13%  
90 0.6% 11%  
91 1.0% 11%  
92 4% 10%  
93 6% 6%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 6% 99.8%  
77 4% 94%  
78 1.0% 90%  
79 0.6% 89% Median
80 1.4% 89%  
81 3% 87%  
82 10% 84%  
83 19% 74%  
84 7% 55%  
85 7% 48% Majority
86 10% 41%  
87 10% 31%  
88 5% 21% Last Result
89 6% 16%  
90 2% 10%  
91 2% 7%  
92 3% 5%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.5%  
74 1.2% 99.3%  
75 0.7% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 2% 93%  
78 5% 91%  
79 6% 86%  
80 9% 80% Last Result
81 14% 71%  
82 6% 57%  
83 4% 51%  
84 11% 47% Median
85 17% 36% Majority
86 8% 19%  
87 2% 11%  
88 0.7% 9%  
89 0.3% 8%  
90 2% 7%  
91 5% 6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 1.3% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 4% 97%  
76 1.2% 93%  
77 3% 91%  
78 6% 88%  
79 16% 82% Median
80 9% 66%  
81 3% 57%  
82 9% 54%  
83 5% 45%  
84 12% 40%  
85 9% 28% Majority
86 4% 19%  
87 3% 15%  
88 5% 12% Last Result
89 5% 7%  
90 1.5% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.0%  
72 0.6% 98.6%  
73 8% 98%  
74 8% 89%  
75 4% 81%  
76 8% 77% Median
77 3% 70%  
78 6% 66%  
79 10% 60%  
80 15% 51% Last Result
81 10% 35%  
82 6% 25%  
83 6% 19%  
84 6% 13%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 1.4% 5%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 0.2% 3%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.9% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.0%  
68 0.4% 98%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 4% 97%  
71 3% 93%  
72 11% 89%  
73 3% 79%  
74 6% 76%  
75 8% 70%  
76 17% 62% Median
77 10% 45%  
78 3% 35%  
79 5% 31%  
80 6% 27% Last Result
81 6% 21%  
82 9% 15%  
83 0.5% 6%  
84 0.8% 5%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.9% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.1%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 13% 92%  
72 16% 79% Last Result
73 11% 63%  
74 8% 52% Median
75 3% 44%  
76 6% 40%  
77 9% 35%  
78 6% 26%  
79 6% 20%  
80 4% 13%  
81 6% 9%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.4% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.9% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.0%  
67 0.3% 98%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 96%  
70 10% 91%  
71 4% 80%  
72 5% 76%  
73 5% 72%  
74 10% 67%  
75 19% 57% Median
76 6% 38%  
77 5% 32%  
78 7% 27%  
79 9% 20% Last Result
80 6% 11%  
81 5% 5%  
82 0% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 99.6%  
60 0.1% 99.4%  
61 5% 99.3%  
62 5% 94%  
63 4% 90%  
64 2% 86%  
65 8% 83% Median
66 13% 75%  
67 3% 62%  
68 18% 59%  
69 8% 41%  
70 11% 33%  
71 2% 22%  
72 5% 20%  
73 4% 16%  
74 5% 12%  
75 5% 7%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 0.1% 99.4%  
59 3% 99.3%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 94%  
62 4% 89%  
63 8% 86%  
64 6% 77% Median
65 11% 71%  
66 11% 59%  
67 14% 48%  
68 15% 34%  
69 3% 19%  
70 5% 16%  
71 1.0% 10%  
72 4% 9%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.7%  
54 0.3% 99.0%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 5% 96%  
57 5% 92%  
58 9% 87%  
59 13% 78%  
60 14% 65%  
61 12% 51% Median
62 10% 39%  
63 8% 29%  
64 10% 21%  
65 7% 11%  
66 0.8% 4%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 5% 99.8%  
50 1.3% 94%  
51 4% 93%  
52 7% 89% Median
53 2% 83%  
54 5% 81%  
55 2% 76%  
56 11% 74%  
57 7% 63%  
58 16% 56%  
59 14% 39%  
60 9% 26%  
61 4% 17% Last Result
62 4% 13%  
63 4% 8%  
64 0.6% 4%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.6%  
48 3% 99.5%  
49 2% 96%  
50 1.2% 94%  
51 7% 93%  
52 10% 86%  
53 10% 76%  
54 12% 66%  
55 13% 54% Median
56 19% 42%  
57 7% 23%  
58 6% 16%  
59 4% 10%  
60 4% 6% Last Result
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 99.4%  
23 3% 98%  
24 2% 95%  
25 7% 93% Median
26 3% 86%  
27 8% 84%  
28 11% 76%  
29 14% 65%  
30 7% 52%  
31 12% 45%  
32 13% 33%  
33 4% 21%  
34 6% 16%  
35 6% 10% Last Result
36 2% 4%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations