Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 5–6 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.4% 27.4–31.6% 26.8–32.2% 26.3–32.7% 25.4–33.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.1% 22.2–26.2% 21.7–26.7% 21.3–27.2% 20.4–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.5% 11.1–14.1% 10.7–14.6% 10.4–15.0% 9.7–15.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 9.9–12.8% 9.5–13.2% 9.2–13.6% 8.6–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–8.0% 4.2–8.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–6.0% 3.3–6.2% 2.9–6.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.9–6.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–4.9% 2.1–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 48–58 47–59 46–60 45–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–47 39–49 38–50 37–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–25 18–26 18–27 16–29
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 17–24 16–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 8–14 8–14 7–15
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 1–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–6 1–7 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.6% Last Result
46 2% 98.5%  
47 3% 96%  
48 6% 94%  
49 5% 88%  
50 6% 83%  
51 12% 77%  
52 9% 65%  
53 17% 57% Median
54 8% 40%  
55 9% 32%  
56 7% 23%  
57 5% 16%  
58 4% 11%  
59 3% 7%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.4%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.7%  
38 1.5% 98.8%  
39 5% 97%  
40 5% 93%  
41 14% 88%  
42 14% 74%  
43 11% 59% Median
44 12% 48%  
45 8% 36%  
46 11% 28%  
47 9% 18%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 6% Last Result
50 1.2% 4%  
51 1.4% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.9%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.3%  
18 6% 98%  
19 12% 91%  
20 11% 79%  
21 9% 68%  
22 9% 59% Median
23 11% 50%  
24 11% 39%  
25 19% 28%  
26 4% 8%  
27 2% 4% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 8% 97%  
18 15% 90%  
19 15% 75% Last Result
20 20% 60% Median
21 13% 40%  
22 15% 26%  
23 5% 11%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.9%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.8% 99.8%  
8 5% 98.9%  
9 11% 94%  
10 25% 83%  
11 23% 58% Last Result, Median
12 16% 35%  
13 12% 19%  
14 5% 7%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 18% 100%  
3 2% 81%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0.1% 79%  
7 8% 79%  
8 31% 71% Last Result, Median
9 21% 40%  
10 14% 20%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100% Last Result
2 28% 99.1%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0.2% 72%  
7 11% 71%  
8 28% 60% Median
9 19% 32%  
10 11% 14%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 39% 99.7% Last Result
2 36% 61% Median
3 3% 24%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0.2% 22%  
7 11% 22%  
8 8% 11%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 49% 96% Median
2 11% 47%  
3 26% 36%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0.6% 10%  
7 5% 10%  
8 4% 4% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 100–110 99–112 97–113 94–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 88 78% 83–93 81–95 80–96 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 45% 79–90 78–91 76–93 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 85 55% 79–90 78–91 76–93 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 30% 77–88 76–89 75–91 72–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 22% 76–86 74–88 73–89 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 80 13% 75–85 73–87 72–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 4% 73–83 71–84 70–85 68–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.6% 71–80 70–81 68–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.7% 70–80 68–82 67–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 69 0% 63–74 62–76 61–77 59–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 65 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 57–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 64 0% 59–69 57–70 56–72 54–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 56–74
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 63 0% 56–68 55–70 53–70 51–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–59 49–60 49–61 47–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 25–34 23–35 23–36 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.6%  
95 0.8% 99.4%  
96 1.0% 98.6%  
97 1.0% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 4% 95%  
100 7% 91%  
101 8% 84%  
102 7% 77%  
103 5% 70%  
104 10% 65% Median
105 12% 55%  
106 7% 43%  
107 9% 36% Last Result
108 8% 28%  
109 7% 20%  
110 3% 13%  
111 4% 9%  
112 2% 5%  
113 0.9% 3%  
114 0.3% 2%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.7% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 99.0%  
79 0.8% 98%  
80 1.4% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 3% 93%  
83 5% 90%  
84 7% 85%  
85 8% 78% Majority
86 11% 70% Median
87 7% 59%  
88 11% 52%  
89 9% 41% Last Result
90 7% 32%  
91 5% 25%  
92 9% 20%  
93 4% 12%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.7% 1.2%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 1.4% 99.3%  
76 1.2% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 7% 93%  
80 5% 86%  
81 6% 81% Last Result
82 11% 75%  
83 7% 65%  
84 12% 57% Median
85 6% 45% Majority
86 8% 39%  
87 11% 30%  
88 5% 19%  
89 2% 13%  
90 5% 11%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.4% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 2% 99.0%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 5% 94%  
80 2% 89%  
81 5% 87%  
82 11% 81%  
83 8% 70%  
84 6% 61% Median
85 12% 55% Majority
86 7% 43%  
87 11% 35%  
88 6% 25% Last Result
89 5% 19%  
90 7% 14%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 1.4% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.4%  
74 1.5% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 95%  
77 4% 93%  
78 7% 89%  
79 5% 83%  
80 11% 77% Last Result
81 8% 67%  
82 7% 59%  
83 9% 52% Median
84 13% 43%  
85 3% 30% Majority
86 10% 27%  
87 7% 17%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.1% 5%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.6% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 2% 98.8%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 4% 93%  
77 9% 88%  
78 5% 80%  
79 7% 75%  
80 9% 68% Last Result
81 11% 59%  
82 7% 48% Median
83 11% 41%  
84 8% 30%  
85 7% 22% Majority
86 5% 15%  
87 3% 10%  
88 3% 7%  
89 1.4% 4%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 4% 92%  
76 8% 88%  
77 11% 79% Median
78 6% 68%  
79 11% 62%  
80 10% 51%  
81 12% 41%  
82 5% 29%  
83 7% 24%  
84 5% 18%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.4% 4% Last Result
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 0.9%  
92 0.4% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 1.1% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 3% 93%  
73 7% 90%  
74 6% 84%  
75 7% 78%  
76 10% 70% Median
77 13% 60%  
78 9% 47%  
79 7% 38%  
80 10% 31% Last Result
81 5% 22%  
82 4% 17%  
83 4% 12%  
84 4% 8%  
85 1.3% 4% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 99.3%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 96%  
71 6% 92%  
72 9% 85% Last Result
73 9% 76%  
74 7% 67%  
75 12% 60% Median
76 14% 48%  
77 7% 34%  
78 12% 27%  
79 4% 15%  
80 3% 11%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 1.5% 98.9%  
68 3% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 5% 91%  
71 7% 85%  
72 10% 78%  
73 4% 68%  
74 11% 64% Median
75 16% 52%  
76 6% 36%  
77 7% 30%  
78 4% 23%  
79 8% 19% Last Result
80 3% 11%  
81 2% 8%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.7% Majority
86 0.4% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.5%  
61 3% 99.1%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 94%  
64 3% 89%  
65 6% 86%  
66 8% 79% Median
67 11% 71%  
68 9% 60%  
69 8% 51%  
70 8% 43%  
71 9% 35%  
72 7% 26%  
73 8% 19%  
74 2% 11%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 4% Last Result
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.3%  
80 0.1% 0.8%  
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 1.3% 99.3%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 5% 93%  
62 7% 88%  
63 10% 81%  
64 8% 72% Median
65 15% 64%  
66 9% 49%  
67 7% 40%  
68 6% 33%  
69 5% 28%  
70 11% 23%  
71 4% 12%  
72 3% 8%  
73 3% 5%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.2%  
76 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.7%  
55 0.3% 98%  
56 0.9% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 3% 91%  
60 7% 87%  
61 8% 80%  
62 9% 72% Last Result
63 7% 64%  
64 12% 57% Median
65 10% 45%  
66 5% 35%  
67 7% 30%  
68 8% 23%  
69 7% 16%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.4%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.5%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 3% 97%  
59 7% 95%  
60 8% 87%  
61 8% 79%  
62 12% 70%  
63 12% 58% Median
64 10% 46%  
65 5% 37%  
66 8% 31%  
67 5% 23%  
68 3% 18% Last Result
69 10% 15%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.6%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 0.2% 99.3%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 96%  
56 6% 93%  
57 4% 87%  
58 6% 84%  
59 4% 77%  
60 6% 73%  
61 4% 67% Last Result
62 9% 62% Median
63 10% 53%  
64 5% 43%  
65 9% 39%  
66 8% 30%  
67 9% 22%  
68 4% 13%  
69 2% 9%  
70 5% 7%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.6%  
48 1.0% 98.8%  
49 3% 98%  
50 5% 95%  
51 7% 90%  
52 12% 83%  
53 8% 71%  
54 14% 63% Median
55 13% 49%  
56 6% 36%  
57 10% 30%  
58 8% 20%  
59 4% 12%  
60 4% 7% Last Result
61 0.8% 3%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 1.1% 99.4%  
22 0.8% 98%  
23 3% 98%  
24 1.3% 94%  
25 5% 93%  
26 4% 88%  
27 7% 85%  
28 9% 78%  
29 17% 69% Median
30 11% 52%  
31 13% 41%  
32 6% 27%  
33 7% 22%  
34 9% 14%  
35 2% 6% Last Result
36 1.3% 3%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations