Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 5–11 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.2% 25.1–29.4% 24.5–30.0% 24.0–30.6% 23.0–31.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.0–26.2% 21.4–26.8% 21.0–27.3% 20.0–28.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.9% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2% 10.6–15.6% 10.0–16.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.6% 9.3–12.3% 8.9–12.7% 8.6–13.2% 7.9–14.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.2% 4.9–8.6% 4.4–9.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.6–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.2% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.7–5.2% 2.6–5.4% 2.2–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–53 43–54 43–56 40–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 19–26 19–27 18–28 16–29
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–14 8–15 8–15 7–16
Rødt 1 8 2–11 2–11 2–12 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–10 1–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–9 1–9 1–10 0–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 0.7% 99.2%  
42 0.8% 98%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 94%  
45 7% 89% Last Result
46 11% 82%  
47 11% 71%  
48 11% 60% Median
49 13% 49%  
50 9% 36%  
51 7% 27%  
52 6% 20%  
53 7% 14%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 0.6% 1.2%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 1.0% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 96%  
41 15% 88%  
42 14% 73%  
43 15% 59% Median
44 10% 44%  
45 15% 34%  
46 3% 19%  
47 5% 16%  
48 5% 11%  
49 3% 6% Last Result
50 1.1% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.1%  
53 0.2% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.8%  
17 1.2% 99.2%  
18 3% 98%  
19 6% 95%  
20 9% 89%  
21 11% 81%  
22 9% 70%  
23 12% 60% Median
24 13% 48%  
25 17% 35%  
26 9% 18%  
27 5% 10% Last Result
28 2% 4%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.5%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.7% 99.5%  
15 3% 98.8%  
16 6% 96%  
17 18% 89%  
18 21% 71%  
19 18% 50% Last Result, Median
20 13% 32%  
21 9% 20%  
22 5% 10%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 6% 99.4%  
9 10% 93%  
10 15% 83%  
11 21% 67% Last Result, Median
12 17% 47%  
13 16% 29%  
14 8% 14%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.0% 1.5%  
17 0.3% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 18% 99.7%  
3 0% 81%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 0.6% 81%  
7 10% 81%  
8 23% 71% Median
9 21% 48%  
10 16% 27%  
11 7% 11%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 27% 93%  
3 3% 66%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 2% 62%  
7 16% 61% Median
8 20% 44%  
9 14% 24%  
10 9% 10%  
11 0.8% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 42% 99.7%  
3 0.4% 58%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0.4% 58%  
7 14% 57% Median
8 26% 43% Last Result
9 11% 17%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 11% 99.4%  
2 12% 88%  
3 37% 76% Median
4 0% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 1.3% 40%  
7 13% 39%  
8 15% 26% Last Result
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 101 100% 95–106 93–108 93–110 90–112
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 88 78% 82–93 80–94 80–96 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 74% 81–93 80–94 78–96 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 84 47% 79–89 78–91 76–92 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 82 26% 76–88 75–89 73–91 71–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 22% 76–87 75–89 73–89 71–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 12% 74–85 73–87 72–88 69–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 5% 71–83 70–85 69–85 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 73 0.9% 69–79 67–81 66–82 65–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 72 0.3% 68–78 66–80 64–81 62–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0.1% 67–77 66–78 65–80 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 61–72 60–74 60–75 57–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 58–67 57–68 57–70 54–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 58 0% 54–64 51–66 49–68 48–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–60 50–61 49–62 47–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 23–34 22–35 20–37 20–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.6%  
91 0.5% 99.2%  
92 1.1% 98.7%  
93 3% 98%  
94 3% 94%  
95 4% 91%  
96 5% 87%  
97 11% 83%  
98 5% 72%  
99 7% 67%  
100 10% 60% Median
101 8% 50%  
102 8% 43%  
103 11% 35%  
104 5% 24%  
105 6% 19%  
106 3% 13%  
107 4% 10% Last Result
108 1.5% 6%  
109 1.4% 4%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.2% 1.0%  
112 0.4% 0.8%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.4%  
78 1.1% 99.2%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 4% 98%  
81 2% 93%  
82 4% 91%  
83 4% 87%  
84 5% 83%  
85 10% 78% Majority
86 5% 68%  
87 7% 63%  
88 10% 55% Median
89 9% 45% Last Result
90 10% 36%  
91 9% 26%  
92 5% 17%  
93 5% 12%  
94 3% 7%  
95 1.1% 4%  
96 1.0% 3%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.8% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.8% 99.2%  
78 2% 98%  
79 1.4% 97%  
80 1.2% 95%  
81 5% 94% Last Result
82 6% 90%  
83 5% 84%  
84 6% 79%  
85 10% 74% Majority
86 7% 64%  
87 8% 57%  
88 12% 50% Median
89 7% 38%  
90 8% 31%  
91 7% 23%  
92 5% 16%  
93 4% 11%  
94 3% 7%  
95 1.1% 4%  
96 1.4% 3%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.5%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.8% 99.5%  
76 1.5% 98.7%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 5% 92%  
80 7% 87%  
81 8% 80%  
82 10% 72%  
83 7% 63% Median
84 8% 55%  
85 11% 47% Majority
86 7% 36%  
87 6% 29%  
88 8% 22% Last Result
89 5% 15%  
90 3% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 99.2%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 1.1% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 4% 93%  
77 5% 89%  
78 7% 84%  
79 8% 77%  
80 7% 69%  
81 12% 62% Median
82 8% 50%  
83 7% 42%  
84 10% 36%  
85 6% 26% Majority
86 5% 20%  
87 5% 16%  
88 5% 10% Last Result
89 1.2% 6%  
90 1.4% 5%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.8% 99.7%  
72 0.7% 98.9%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 1.1% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 5% 93%  
77 5% 88%  
78 9% 83%  
79 10% 74%  
80 9% 64% Last Result
81 10% 55% Median
82 7% 45%  
83 5% 37%  
84 10% 32%  
85 5% 22% Majority
86 4% 17%  
87 4% 13%  
88 2% 9%  
89 4% 7%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.8%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 0.7% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 93%  
75 5% 90%  
76 9% 85%  
77 9% 76%  
78 6% 67%  
79 15% 61%  
80 8% 46% Last Result, Median
81 7% 38%  
82 8% 31%  
83 6% 22%  
84 5% 16%  
85 3% 12% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 1.5% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.7%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.3%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 5% 94%  
72 2% 90%  
73 7% 87%  
74 6% 80%  
75 9% 75%  
76 9% 66%  
77 9% 57%  
78 10% 48% Median
79 11% 38%  
80 7% 28% Last Result
81 5% 20%  
82 4% 16%  
83 5% 11%  
84 2% 7%  
85 4% 5% Majority
86 0.8% 1.5%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 99.7%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 7% 91%  
70 8% 84%  
71 8% 76%  
72 9% 68%  
73 11% 59% Median
74 10% 48%  
75 6% 39%  
76 8% 33%  
77 9% 25%  
78 5% 17%  
79 4% 12% Last Result
80 2% 8%  
81 3% 6%  
82 0.7% 3%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.3%  
85 0.1% 0.9% Majority
86 0.1% 0.8%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.2%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 1.1% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 94%  
68 6% 92%  
69 8% 85%  
70 9% 78%  
71 8% 69%  
72 11% 60% Median
73 7% 50%  
74 7% 43%  
75 9% 35%  
76 10% 26%  
77 5% 17% Last Result
78 3% 12%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.4%  
64 1.0% 98.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 95%  
67 4% 91%  
68 7% 87%  
69 9% 80%  
70 7% 71%  
71 16% 64% Median
72 7% 48% Last Result
73 12% 41%  
74 8% 29%  
75 6% 21%  
76 5% 15%  
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.1% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 1.0% 1.5%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 98%  
60 4% 98%  
61 4% 94%  
62 7% 90%  
63 6% 83%  
64 5% 76%  
65 7% 71% Median
66 10% 64%  
67 12% 54%  
68 8% 42%  
69 8% 34%  
70 8% 26%  
71 5% 19%  
72 4% 14%  
73 3% 9%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.4% 2% Last Result
77 0.4% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 1.4% 99.0%  
57 3% 98%  
58 8% 95%  
59 12% 87%  
60 9% 75%  
61 10% 66%  
62 10% 56% Median
63 13% 45%  
64 9% 32%  
65 6% 24%  
66 5% 17%  
67 5% 12%  
68 3% 8% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 1.5% 99.7%  
49 0.7% 98%  
50 1.1% 97%  
51 2% 96%  
52 1.2% 94%  
53 3% 93%  
54 8% 90%  
55 4% 82%  
56 9% 78%  
57 7% 69%  
58 14% 63% Median
59 9% 49%  
60 7% 40%  
61 5% 33% Last Result
62 8% 28%  
63 4% 20%  
64 6% 16%  
65 4% 10%  
66 2% 6%  
67 1.3% 4%  
68 0.8% 3%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.6% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 1.2% 99.2%  
49 3% 98%  
50 4% 95%  
51 9% 91%  
52 7% 82%  
53 9% 74%  
54 15% 66% Median
55 9% 51%  
56 11% 42%  
57 10% 31%  
58 7% 21%  
59 3% 14%  
60 4% 10% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.2%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 2% 97%  
22 4% 96%  
23 2% 92%  
24 4% 90%  
25 5% 86%  
26 7% 81%  
27 6% 73%  
28 10% 67%  
29 12% 57% Median
30 12% 45%  
31 6% 33%  
32 6% 27%  
33 7% 21%  
34 6% 14%  
35 4% 8% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.4% 1.4%  
39 0.6% 1.0%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations