Opinion Poll by Sentio, 12–16 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.0% 24.9–29.2% 24.3–29.8% 23.8–30.4% 22.9–31.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.1% 23.1–27.3% 22.6–28.0% 22.1–28.5% 21.1–29.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.9% 12.4–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.2% 8.9–11.8% 8.5–12.3% 8.2–12.7% 7.6–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.1% 5.5–9.4% 5.1–10.1%
Rødt 2.4% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.2% 3.4–7.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.5–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.1% 1.6–3.0% 1.4–3.3% 1.3–3.5% 1.1–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 43–54 43–54 43–55 41–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–51 40–51 39–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 21–29 21–30 19–31
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–22 15–22 15–23 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 10–16 10–16 9–18
Rødt 1 10 8–12 7–12 2–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–12
Venstre 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.5%  
42 1.1% 98.8%  
43 9% 98%  
44 3% 88%  
45 6% 86% Last Result
46 17% 80%  
47 7% 62%  
48 10% 55% Median
49 15% 46%  
50 8% 30%  
51 5% 23%  
52 2% 18%  
53 6% 16%  
54 6% 10%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.4%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.8%  
40 1.3% 98%  
41 5% 97%  
42 12% 92%  
43 9% 80%  
44 8% 71%  
45 23% 63% Median
46 15% 41%  
47 4% 25%  
48 3% 22%  
49 9% 19% Last Result
50 2% 9%  
51 5% 7%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.7% 1.5%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.7%  
20 0.7% 99.2%  
21 7% 98%  
22 3% 92%  
23 6% 89%  
24 16% 83%  
25 25% 67% Median
26 15% 42%  
27 14% 27% Last Result
28 7% 13%  
29 3% 6%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.2%  
15 5% 98%  
16 12% 93%  
17 10% 81%  
18 27% 71% Median
19 12% 45% Last Result
20 18% 33%  
21 4% 15%  
22 8% 11%  
23 1.3% 3%  
24 1.1% 1.4%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.0%  
11 14% 94% Last Result
12 24% 80%  
13 21% 56% Median
14 15% 35%  
15 6% 20%  
16 12% 14%  
17 0.9% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.8%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 4% 100%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 4% 96%  
8 13% 92%  
9 23% 79%  
10 18% 56% Median
11 22% 38%  
12 13% 16%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 8% 99.7%  
2 2% 91%  
3 29% 89%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 7% 60%  
8 38% 53% Last Result, Median
9 10% 15%  
10 3% 5%  
11 0.8% 1.5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 10% 99.4%  
2 79% 90% Median
3 0.7% 11%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 2% 10%  
8 7% 8% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 63% 68% Last Result, Median
2 4% 5%  
3 0.2% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 95–105 95–106 93–108 92–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 88 79% 82–91 81–93 80–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 71% 81–90 80–92 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 39% 78–88 75–89 75–90 73–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 82 29% 79–88 77–89 75–90 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 81 21% 78–87 76–88 75–89 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 3% 72–81 71–83 70–85 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 2% 72–81 71–82 69–84 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 76 2% 71–81 71–83 69–83 67–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0.2% 69–78 67–81 67–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 65–75 64–77 62–77 60–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–74 64–76 62–76 59–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 69 0% 64–74 63–74 61–76 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 60–68 58–69 57–71 56–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–63 52–64 52–65 50–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 52–61 51–64 50–65 47–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 27 0% 22–32 21–33 20–33 18–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.1% 99.6%  
92 2% 99.5%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 1.3% 97%  
95 7% 95%  
96 2% 88%  
97 6% 86%  
98 4% 80%  
99 20% 76%  
100 8% 55%  
101 4% 47% Median
102 20% 43%  
103 7% 23%  
104 2% 16%  
105 8% 14%  
106 2% 6%  
107 0.7% 4% Last Result
108 2% 3%  
109 1.2% 1.5%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.2% 99.6%  
79 1.4% 99.4%  
80 2% 98%  
81 5% 96% Last Result
82 2% 91%  
83 5% 89%  
84 5% 84%  
85 8% 79% Majority
86 8% 70%  
87 9% 63% Median
88 19% 54%  
89 9% 34%  
90 14% 25%  
91 2% 11%  
92 4% 9%  
93 2% 5%  
94 0.6% 3%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.2%  
97 0.7% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 1.5% 99.4%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 4% 97% Last Result
81 3% 92%  
82 3% 89%  
83 7% 86%  
84 9% 80%  
85 3% 71% Majority
86 8% 67% Median
87 24% 60%  
88 9% 36%  
89 12% 26%  
90 5% 14%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 0.6% 3%  
94 0.7% 3%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.7% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 1.1% 99.5%  
75 3% 98%  
76 0.6% 95%  
77 0.6% 94%  
78 4% 94%  
79 3% 89%  
80 8% 86%  
81 9% 78%  
82 11% 69%  
83 4% 57%  
84 14% 53%  
85 6% 39% Median, Majority
86 9% 33%  
87 5% 24%  
88 14% 20% Last Result
89 3% 6%  
90 1.3% 4%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.7% 1.3%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.1%  
75 0.7% 98%  
76 0.6% 97%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 94%  
79 5% 91%  
80 12% 86%  
81 9% 73%  
82 24% 64%  
83 8% 40%  
84 3% 33% Median
85 9% 29% Majority
86 7% 20%  
87 3% 14%  
88 3% 11%  
89 4% 8% Last Result
90 1.3% 3%  
91 1.5% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.1%  
74 1.1% 98.8%  
75 0.6% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 2% 91%  
79 14% 89%  
80 9% 75%  
81 19% 66%  
82 9% 46%  
83 8% 37% Median
84 8% 29%  
85 5% 21% Majority
86 5% 16%  
87 2% 11%  
88 5% 9% Last Result
89 2% 4%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 3% 99.1%  
71 2% 96%  
72 5% 94%  
73 3% 89%  
74 6% 86%  
75 3% 80%  
76 13% 77%  
77 10% 64% Median
78 14% 54%  
79 6% 39%  
80 17% 34% Last Result
81 6% 16%  
82 4% 10%  
83 1.1% 5%  
84 1.0% 4%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.7% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 3% 99.1%  
70 0.9% 97%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 7% 88%  
74 5% 80%  
75 12% 76%  
76 6% 64% Median
77 13% 58%  
78 11% 45%  
79 16% 34% Last Result
80 4% 18%  
81 8% 14%  
82 1.3% 6%  
83 1.4% 5%  
84 1.0% 3%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.9%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 1.4% 99.5%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 1.0% 97%  
71 8% 96%  
72 10% 88%  
73 16% 78%  
74 7% 62%  
75 4% 55% Median
76 9% 51%  
77 4% 42%  
78 8% 38%  
79 6% 30%  
80 13% 24% Last Result
81 3% 11%  
82 1.3% 8%  
83 4% 7%  
84 0.4% 2%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.5% 0.6%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 1.0% 98.9%  
67 3% 98%  
68 1.0% 95%  
69 9% 94%  
70 6% 85%  
71 19% 79%  
72 10% 59% Last Result
73 5% 50% Median
74 8% 45%  
75 5% 37%  
76 8% 32%  
77 7% 25%  
78 9% 18%  
79 3% 9%  
80 1.1% 6%  
81 4% 5%  
82 1.0% 1.5%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.8% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.1%  
62 0.5% 98%  
63 0.4% 97%  
64 2% 97%  
65 9% 95%  
66 4% 86%  
67 5% 82%  
68 9% 77%  
69 9% 69%  
70 8% 59%  
71 5% 51%  
72 13% 46% Median
73 11% 33%  
74 10% 22%  
75 3% 12%  
76 2% 9%  
77 5% 8% Last Result
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.5%  
80 0.1% 0.9%  
81 0% 0.8%  
82 0.5% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.8% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.2%  
61 1.2% 99.0%  
62 0.5% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 11% 93%  
66 5% 82%  
67 3% 77%  
68 15% 75%  
69 4% 60%  
70 10% 56%  
71 13% 46% Median
72 11% 33%  
73 10% 22%  
74 3% 12%  
75 0.8% 10%  
76 6% 9% Last Result
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.4%  
79 0% 0.8%  
80 0% 0.8%  
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 1.2% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.5%  
62 0.7% 97% Last Result
63 2% 96%  
64 8% 94%  
65 2% 86%  
66 7% 84%  
67 20% 77%  
68 4% 57%  
69 8% 53% Median
70 20% 45%  
71 4% 24%  
72 6% 20%  
73 2% 14%  
74 7% 12%  
75 1.3% 5%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.9% 99.7%  
57 1.3% 98.8%  
58 5% 97%  
59 2% 93%  
60 9% 91%  
61 3% 83%  
62 12% 79%  
63 18% 67% Median
64 9% 49%  
65 17% 40%  
66 1.2% 24%  
67 8% 22%  
68 6% 15% Last Result
69 5% 8%  
70 0.5% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.3%  
52 4% 98.6%  
53 4% 95%  
54 3% 91%  
55 6% 88%  
56 3% 82%  
57 25% 79%  
58 18% 54% Median
59 7% 36%  
60 3% 28% Last Result
61 4% 26%  
62 3% 21%  
63 13% 18%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 1.5%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.1% 0.6%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 1.1% 99.1%  
49 0.4% 98%  
50 2% 98%  
51 2% 95%  
52 6% 93%  
53 8% 87%  
54 5% 79%  
55 12% 75%  
56 16% 63%  
57 7% 47%  
58 10% 41% Median
59 15% 31%  
60 4% 16%  
61 2% 12% Last Result
62 2% 9%  
63 2% 8%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.4% 3%  
66 1.1% 1.5%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.6%  
19 0.5% 99.3%  
20 1.4% 98.8%  
21 6% 97%  
22 3% 91%  
23 5% 88%  
24 9% 83%  
25 8% 74%  
26 10% 66%  
27 8% 56%  
28 16% 48% Median
29 10% 31%  
30 6% 21%  
31 3% 16%  
32 7% 13%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.8% 1.2% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations