Opinion Poll by Norstat, 19–25 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.8% 26.0–29.8% 25.5–30.3% 25.1–30.8% 24.2–31.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.5% 19.8–23.3% 19.4–23.8% 19.0–24.2% 18.2–25.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.6% 11.6–16.0% 10.9–16.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.9% 8.4–13.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Venstre 4.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.3–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 45–52 44–54 43–55 43–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 37–42 36–43 35–43 32–45
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 21–27 21–27 20–28 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 18 17–21 16–22 16–22 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–15 11–16 11–16 10–18
Venstre 8 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 2–13
Rødt 1 8 7–11 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.7%  
44 3% 97%  
45 4% 94% Last Result
46 8% 90%  
47 10% 82%  
48 15% 72%  
49 15% 57% Median
50 9% 42%  
51 14% 33%  
52 9% 19%  
53 4% 9%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.3%  
34 0.9% 98.8%  
35 3% 98%  
36 3% 95%  
37 6% 92%  
38 12% 86%  
39 19% 73%  
40 20% 54% Median
41 21% 34%  
42 7% 13%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 0.8% 99.5%  
20 4% 98.7%  
21 6% 95%  
22 8% 89%  
23 13% 81%  
24 13% 68%  
25 36% 56% Median
26 10% 20%  
27 7% 10% Last Result
28 2% 4%  
29 1.0% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 99.7%  
16 4% 98.6%  
17 18% 95%  
18 29% 76% Median
19 18% 47% Last Result
20 13% 30%  
21 10% 16%  
22 5% 7%  
23 0.9% 2%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 17% 98% Last Result
12 16% 81%  
13 14% 64%  
14 26% 50% Median
15 18% 24%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 0.3% 96%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 7% 95%  
8 30% 88% Last Result
9 28% 59% Median
10 20% 31%  
11 8% 11%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.9%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 19% 92%  
8 26% 73% Median
9 18% 47%  
10 18% 29%  
11 10% 11%  
12 0.8% 1.1%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 4% 99.0%  
3 29% 95%  
4 0% 65%  
5 0% 65%  
6 0% 65%  
7 22% 65% Median
8 27% 43% Last Result
9 12% 16%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 78% 92% Last Result, Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0.1% 0.8%  
4 0% 0.7%  
5 0% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.7%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 107 100% 103–111 102–113 101–114 100–116
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 89 93% 85–94 83–94 83–96 82–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 88 82% 84–93 82–93 82–95 80–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 26% 78–86 77–88 76–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 81 18% 76–85 76–87 74–87 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 7% 75–84 75–86 73–86 71–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 78 4% 75–83 73–84 72–85 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.1% 69–77 68–78 68–80 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 73 0% 68–77 68–78 67–78 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 71 0% 67–75 67–77 66–77 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 66 0% 62–70 60–71 57–72 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 64 0% 61–68 59–69 56–71 56–72
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 64 0% 60–68 58–69 57–70 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 62 0% 58–66 56–67 55–68 53–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 58 0% 55–62 54–62 53–63 51–65
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 49–56 48–57 48–58 45–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 30–37 29–38 28–39 25–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 0.9% 99.5%  
101 3% 98.6%  
102 2% 96%  
103 10% 94%  
104 9% 84%  
105 7% 74%  
106 17% 67%  
107 8% 50% Last Result
108 13% 43% Median
109 5% 30%  
110 12% 24%  
111 5% 13%  
112 2% 7%  
113 2% 5%  
114 1.1% 3%  
115 1.0% 2%  
116 0.3% 0.7%  
117 0.3% 0.4%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.6%  
83 4% 98%  
84 1.3% 94%  
85 11% 93% Majority
86 6% 82%  
87 10% 76%  
88 6% 66%  
89 11% 60% Last Result
90 13% 49%  
91 7% 36% Median
92 7% 29%  
93 10% 22%  
94 8% 12%  
95 1.3% 4%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 2% 99.4%  
82 3% 98%  
83 5% 95%  
84 9% 90%  
85 6% 82% Majority
86 11% 75%  
87 5% 65%  
88 12% 59% Last Result
89 11% 47%  
90 8% 36% Median
91 7% 28%  
92 10% 21%  
93 8% 12%  
94 1.3% 4%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.4%  
75 0.8% 98.7%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 96%  
78 6% 92%  
79 7% 86%  
80 10% 79% Last Result
81 20% 69%  
82 10% 49%  
83 9% 40% Median
84 5% 31%  
85 13% 26% Majority
86 5% 13%  
87 2% 8%  
88 3% 7%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 2% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 1.0% 99.4%  
74 1.1% 98%  
75 1.4% 97%  
76 8% 96%  
77 10% 88%  
78 7% 79%  
79 8% 72%  
80 11% 64%  
81 12% 53% Last Result, Median
82 5% 40%  
83 11% 35%  
84 6% 25%  
85 9% 18% Majority
86 5% 10%  
87 3% 5%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 1.2% 99.4%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 1.3% 97%  
75 8% 96%  
76 10% 88%  
77 7% 78%  
78 7% 71%  
79 13% 64%  
80 11% 51% Last Result, Median
81 6% 40%  
82 10% 34%  
83 6% 24%  
84 11% 18%  
85 1.3% 7% Majority
86 4% 6%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 98%  
72 2% 98%  
73 1.3% 95%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 12% 89%  
77 14% 77%  
78 14% 64%  
79 6% 50%  
80 15% 44% Median
81 8% 28%  
82 10% 21%  
83 2% 11%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.2%  
88 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 99.5%  
67 1.1% 98.8%  
68 4% 98%  
69 5% 94%  
70 9% 89%  
71 8% 80%  
72 15% 73% Last Result
73 13% 58%  
74 11% 44% Median
75 6% 33%  
76 13% 27%  
77 4% 14%  
78 5% 10%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.7% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 1.2% 1.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 99.0%  
67 3% 98%  
68 6% 96%  
69 5% 90%  
70 16% 85%  
71 6% 69%  
72 12% 64%  
73 12% 51% Median
74 11% 39%  
75 12% 29%  
76 4% 17%  
77 6% 13%  
78 4% 7%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.4%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 6% 96%  
68 6% 90%  
69 14% 84%  
70 7% 70%  
71 14% 63%  
72 11% 49% Median
73 11% 38%  
74 11% 27%  
75 6% 16%  
76 3% 10%  
77 5% 7%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 3% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 97%  
59 0.8% 96%  
60 1.1% 95%  
61 3% 94%  
62 5% 91%  
63 4% 86%  
64 13% 82%  
65 18% 69%  
66 20% 50% Median
67 9% 30%  
68 5% 21%  
69 5% 17%  
70 6% 11%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 3% 99.6%  
57 0.8% 97%  
58 0.9% 96%  
59 1.3% 95%  
60 3% 94%  
61 5% 91%  
62 6% 86%  
63 12% 80%  
64 20% 69%  
65 19% 49% Median
66 9% 30%  
67 5% 20%  
68 6% 16%  
69 5% 10%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.9% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.6%  
57 1.3% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 7% 92%  
61 12% 85% Last Result
62 8% 73%  
63 8% 66%  
64 13% 58%  
65 12% 45% Median
66 9% 33%  
67 11% 25%  
68 6% 13%  
69 4% 7%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.7% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 1.0% 99.3%  
55 1.1% 98%  
56 2% 97%  
57 2% 95%  
58 6% 93%  
59 12% 87%  
60 5% 76%  
61 13% 70%  
62 8% 57% Last Result
63 17% 50% Median
64 7% 33%  
65 9% 26%  
66 10% 16%  
67 2% 6%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.9% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 1.1% 99.2%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 14% 89%  
57 13% 75%  
58 20% 62% Median
59 10% 42%  
60 10% 32%  
61 11% 21%  
62 7% 10%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.6% 1.5%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1% Last Result
69 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.7%  
45 0.3% 99.6%  
46 0.5% 99.3%  
47 1.2% 98.8%  
48 3% 98%  
49 6% 95%  
50 6% 89%  
51 19% 83%  
52 8% 64%  
53 15% 56%  
54 14% 42% Median
55 15% 28%  
56 5% 13%  
57 4% 8%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.8%  
26 0.3% 98.6%  
27 0.6% 98%  
28 2% 98%  
29 3% 96%  
30 5% 93%  
31 11% 88%  
32 6% 77%  
33 15% 71%  
34 22% 56% Median
35 11% 34% Last Result
36 9% 23%  
37 7% 14%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations