Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 25–27 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.9% 26.1–29.9% 25.6–30.4% 25.2–30.9% 24.3–31.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.1–24.5% 19.7–25.0% 18.9–25.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.1–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.5–15.8% 10.8–16.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.4% 10.1–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.5–13.6% 8.9–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.9–8.7% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 47–55 45–56 45–57 44–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 38–44 37–45 36–46 35–47
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–23 17–24 17–24 17–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 3–10 3–11 3–11 2–12
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–10 2–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.6%  
45 5% 98.6% Last Result
46 2% 94%  
47 4% 91%  
48 8% 87%  
49 11% 79%  
50 24% 68% Median
51 7% 44%  
52 11% 38%  
53 5% 27%  
54 10% 22%  
55 4% 12%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 1.2%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 5% 97%  
38 6% 92%  
39 11% 86%  
40 21% 75%  
41 11% 54% Median
42 12% 42%  
43 17% 30%  
44 7% 14%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 1.1% 1.5%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 0.6% 99.5%  
20 2% 98.9%  
21 4% 97%  
22 16% 93%  
23 11% 77%  
24 10% 66%  
25 28% 56% Median
26 11% 28%  
27 7% 17% Last Result
28 6% 9%  
29 1.2% 3%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.8%  
17 6% 99.5%  
18 12% 94%  
19 18% 82% Last Result
20 11% 64%  
21 15% 53% Median
22 18% 38%  
23 13% 20%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.8%  
10 6% 98.9%  
11 12% 93% Last Result
12 19% 81%  
13 22% 62% Median
14 22% 40%  
15 8% 17%  
16 8% 10%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.8%  
3 12% 99.4%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.1% 87%  
7 7% 87%  
8 28% 80% Last Result
9 30% 52% Median
10 14% 22%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.2% 1.4%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 7% 55% Median
4 0% 48%  
5 0% 48%  
6 0.7% 48%  
7 11% 48%  
8 27% 37% Last Result
9 7% 10%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 56% 97% Median
3 0% 41%  
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.4% 41%  
7 12% 40%  
8 20% 28%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 68% 91% Last Result, Median
2 22% 23%  
3 0.5% 1.1%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0.3% 0.6%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 109 100% 104–114 103–116 101–116 99–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 88% 84–94 83–96 82–96 80–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 89 84% 83–93 82–95 81–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 48% 78–88 77–90 76–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 80 13% 75–85 74–86 73–87 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 11% 75–85 74–87 73–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 9% 74–84 73–85 72–86 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 76 0.8% 71–81 69–81 69–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.2% 70–79 68–80 68–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.5% 71–80 70–81 68–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–74 64–75 63–76 60–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 64 0% 59–69 58–70 56–71 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 57–65 56–67 56–68 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 60 0% 54–65 53–65 52–66 51–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–58 49–59 48–60 47–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 28–39 27–39 26–40 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 0.5% 99.3%  
101 2% 98.8%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 7% 93%  
105 9% 86%  
106 8% 78%  
107 5% 70% Last Result
108 9% 65% Median
109 10% 56%  
110 10% 45%  
111 11% 36%  
112 7% 25%  
113 6% 17%  
114 3% 12%  
115 3% 9%  
116 4% 6%  
117 1.5% 2%  
118 0.8% 1.0%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.6%  
81 0.8% 99.2%  
82 1.0% 98%  
83 3% 97%  
84 6% 94%  
85 3% 88% Majority
86 6% 85%  
87 13% 79%  
88 7% 67% Median
89 7% 59% Last Result
90 7% 53%  
91 18% 46%  
92 7% 28%  
93 6% 21%  
94 6% 15%  
95 3% 9%  
96 4% 6%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.3% 1.2%  
99 0.7% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.5%  
80 1.0% 99.2%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 3% 97%  
83 6% 94%  
84 4% 88%  
85 7% 84% Majority
86 13% 78%  
87 6% 65% Median
88 8% 59% Last Result
89 12% 50%  
90 10% 38%  
91 8% 29%  
92 8% 21%  
93 4% 13%  
94 3% 9%  
95 4% 6%  
96 1.4% 3%  
97 0.3% 1.2%  
98 0.7% 0.9%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 1.2% 99.6%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 5% 94%  
79 2% 89%  
80 7% 87%  
81 6% 80%  
82 5% 74%  
83 8% 69%  
84 12% 61%  
85 12% 48% Median, Majority
86 7% 36%  
87 12% 29%  
88 7% 17% Last Result
89 4% 9%  
90 3% 6%  
91 1.2% 3%  
92 0.4% 1.3%  
93 0.5% 0.9%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 4% 92%  
76 4% 89%  
77 8% 84%  
78 7% 76% Median
79 11% 69%  
80 12% 58%  
81 8% 45% Last Result
82 6% 38%  
83 13% 32%  
84 6% 19%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.8% 1.3%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.5%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 5% 97%  
75 3% 92%  
76 6% 90%  
77 10% 83%  
78 4% 74% Median
79 10% 69%  
80 15% 59% Last Result
81 8% 44%  
82 9% 36%  
83 10% 27%  
84 6% 18%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 4% 6%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.2% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 98%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 4% 92%  
75 6% 88%  
76 6% 82%  
77 6% 76% Median
78 19% 69%  
79 7% 50%  
80 6% 43% Last Result
81 7% 37%  
82 12% 30%  
83 6% 18%  
84 3% 12%  
85 5% 9% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.4%  
69 5% 98.5%  
70 2% 94%  
71 4% 92%  
72 6% 88%  
73 7% 81%  
74 7% 75%  
75 14% 68%  
76 9% 53% Median
77 9% 44%  
78 13% 35%  
79 8% 22%  
80 2% 13% Last Result
81 6% 11%  
82 1.3% 5%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.8% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.9% 99.4%  
68 5% 98%  
69 2% 94%  
70 4% 92%  
71 7% 88%  
72 7% 81%  
73 9% 74%  
74 13% 65%  
75 9% 53% Median
76 17% 44%  
77 7% 27%  
78 7% 20%  
79 3% 13% Last Result
80 5% 10%  
81 0.9% 4%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.4%  
69 1.3% 97%  
70 5% 96%  
71 4% 91%  
72 14% 87% Last Result
73 8% 73%  
74 8% 65%  
75 13% 57% Median
76 7% 43%  
77 11% 36%  
78 6% 26%  
79 7% 20%  
80 4% 13%  
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.9% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 98.9%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 4% 93%  
67 5% 89%  
68 7% 84%  
69 10% 77%  
70 10% 67%  
71 11% 57%  
72 9% 47% Median
73 16% 38%  
74 8% 22%  
75 7% 14%  
76 4% 7%  
77 1.4% 4% Last Result
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.8% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.4%  
62 0.8% 98.8%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 96%  
65 4% 92%  
66 6% 88%  
67 5% 82%  
68 11% 77%  
69 10% 66%  
70 13% 56%  
71 13% 44% Median
72 10% 31%  
73 8% 20%  
74 6% 13%  
75 3% 7%  
76 1.3% 3% Last Result
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.8% 1.1%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.7% 99.3%  
56 1.1% 98.5%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 96%  
59 5% 92%  
60 8% 87%  
61 12% 79% Last Result
62 7% 67% Median
63 7% 60%  
64 7% 53%  
65 7% 45%  
66 7% 38%  
67 15% 31%  
68 4% 16%  
69 3% 11%  
70 6% 9%  
71 0.6% 3%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 4% 98.8%  
57 5% 95%  
58 5% 90%  
59 7% 85%  
60 12% 77%  
61 10% 66%  
62 20% 55% Median
63 11% 35%  
64 8% 24%  
65 7% 16%  
66 3% 9%  
67 4% 7%  
68 1.3% 3% Last Result
69 0.7% 1.5%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7%  
52 2% 98.9%  
53 4% 97%  
54 3% 92%  
55 3% 90%  
56 6% 87%  
57 8% 80% Median
58 12% 72%  
59 9% 61%  
60 12% 52%  
61 9% 40%  
62 5% 31% Last Result
63 7% 26%  
64 8% 18%  
65 7% 11%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 4% 97%  
50 9% 93%  
51 5% 84%  
52 9% 79%  
53 8% 70%  
54 19% 63% Median
55 10% 44%  
56 12% 34%  
57 11% 22%  
58 5% 11%  
59 2% 5%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 0.5% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 0.9% 99.0%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 3% 92%  
29 6% 89%  
30 5% 84%  
31 6% 79%  
32 8% 72%  
33 12% 64% Median
34 10% 52%  
35 8% 43% Last Result
36 7% 35%  
37 10% 28%  
38 4% 18%  
39 11% 14%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations