Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 3–4 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.3% 24.3–28.4% 23.7–29.0% 23.3–29.5% 22.4–30.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.7% 21.7–25.7% 21.2–26.3% 20.8–26.8% 19.9–27.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.8% 13.3–16.6% 12.9–17.1% 12.5–17.6% 11.8–18.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.7% 8.5–11.2% 8.1–11.7% 7.8–12.0% 7.3–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.4–8.9% 6.1–9.3% 5.8–9.6% 5.3–10.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.7–6.8% 3.3–7.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.4–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.2–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.7% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–46 39–48 38–49 37–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–30 23–31 22–32 21–34
Senterpartiet 19 18 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–17 10–17 9–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 7–11 3–12 3–12 3–13
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–8 1–10

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 4% 97%  
43 7% 94%  
44 9% 86%  
45 10% 77% Last Result
46 19% 67% Median
47 9% 48%  
48 10% 40%  
49 5% 30%  
50 9% 25%  
51 8% 16%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.1% 1.2%  
56 0.4% 1.1%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.8%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 5% 92%  
41 13% 87%  
42 14% 74%  
43 15% 60% Median
44 13% 45%  
45 16% 31%  
46 7% 15%  
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 3% Last Result
50 0.7% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.1% 99.7%  
22 2% 98.5%  
23 3% 97%  
24 9% 94%  
25 25% 85%  
26 16% 60% Median
27 11% 44% Last Result
28 11% 33%  
29 10% 23%  
30 7% 13%  
31 2% 7%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 1.4% 99.6%  
14 3% 98%  
15 9% 95%  
16 12% 85%  
17 21% 73%  
18 22% 52% Median
19 10% 30% Last Result
20 16% 21%  
21 2% 5%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.9%  
10 3% 98.9%  
11 9% 96% Last Result
12 21% 87%  
13 20% 66% Median
14 21% 46%  
15 9% 25%  
16 10% 16%  
17 3% 5%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 8% 99.5%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0.3% 92%  
7 6% 91%  
8 29% 86% Last Result
9 22% 57% Median
10 21% 35%  
11 9% 14%  
12 4% 5%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 41% 97%  
3 0% 56%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0.4% 56%  
7 14% 55% Median
8 30% 41%  
9 8% 12%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100% Last Result
2 41% 86% Median
3 10% 45%  
4 0.1% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0.3% 35%  
7 15% 34%  
8 12% 19%  
9 5% 7%  
10 1.1% 1.3%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 71% 97% Median
3 3% 26%  
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 1.0% 22%  
7 11% 21%  
8 8% 11% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 98–108 97–111 95–112 94–114
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 89 85% 84–95 84–96 83–99 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 73% 82–92 80–93 79–94 76–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 58% 81–91 79–92 78–94 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 42% 78–88 77–90 75–91 72–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 4% 73–83 72–84 71–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 15% 74–85 73–85 70–86 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 4% 72–82 71–84 70–86 68–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.8% 69–78 68–79 68–81 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 74 0.3% 69–78 68–79 67–81 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.2% 68–78 67–80 66–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–74 63–75 62–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 61 0% 57–64 55–65 54–67 53–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 55–64 53–66 52–67 49–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 49–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–34 23–35 22–36 21–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.5%  
95 3% 98.9%  
96 0.8% 96%  
97 4% 95%  
98 3% 92%  
99 13% 89%  
100 8% 76%  
101 7% 69% Median
102 6% 61%  
103 6% 55%  
104 12% 48%  
105 7% 36%  
106 9% 29%  
107 4% 20% Last Result
108 6% 16%  
109 2% 10%  
110 2% 8%  
111 2% 6%  
112 2% 4%  
113 0.3% 1.4%  
114 0.7% 1.1%  
115 0.3% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.4%  
82 0.8% 98.9%  
83 2% 98%  
84 11% 96%  
85 6% 85% Median, Majority
86 7% 79%  
87 5% 72%  
88 10% 67%  
89 8% 58% Last Result
90 11% 50%  
91 9% 38%  
92 5% 29%  
93 7% 24%  
94 5% 18%  
95 5% 12%  
96 3% 7%  
97 1.1% 4%  
98 0.6% 3%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.4% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.4%  
78 0.4% 99.2%  
79 1.3% 98.7%  
80 4% 97%  
81 4% 94%  
82 5% 90%  
83 5% 86%  
84 8% 80%  
85 7% 73% Median, Majority
86 10% 65%  
87 10% 56%  
88 11% 45% Last Result
89 10% 34%  
90 8% 24%  
91 5% 16%  
92 4% 11%  
93 2% 7%  
94 3% 5%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.2%  
78 3% 98.8%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 10% 91%  
82 8% 81%  
83 6% 73% Median
84 9% 67%  
85 9% 58% Majority
86 9% 49%  
87 9% 40%  
88 11% 32% Last Result
89 6% 21%  
90 4% 15%  
91 3% 11%  
92 3% 8%  
93 1.0% 5%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.3% 1.4%  
96 0.2% 1.0%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.2% 99.2%  
74 0.3% 99.0%  
75 2% 98.6%  
76 1.0% 96%  
77 3% 95%  
78 3% 92%  
79 4% 89%  
80 6% 85%  
81 11% 79% Last Result
82 9% 68%  
83 9% 60% Median
84 9% 50%  
85 9% 42% Majority
86 6% 33%  
87 8% 26%  
88 10% 19%  
89 3% 9%  
90 2% 6%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 1.2% 98.9%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 5% 93%  
74 5% 88%  
75 7% 83%  
76 9% 76% Median
77 10% 67%  
78 6% 57%  
79 12% 51%  
80 15% 39% Last Result
81 9% 24%  
82 3% 15%  
83 3% 13%  
84 5% 10%  
85 1.0% 4% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.5% 1.2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 2% 99.2%  
71 0.6% 97%  
72 1.1% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 5% 93%  
75 5% 88%  
76 7% 82%  
77 5% 75%  
78 9% 70%  
79 11% 62%  
80 8% 50% Last Result
81 10% 42% Median
82 5% 32%  
83 7% 28%  
84 6% 20%  
85 11% 15% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.9%  
71 3% 97%  
72 5% 93%  
73 10% 89%  
74 6% 78% Median
75 14% 72%  
76 5% 58%  
77 11% 53%  
78 11% 41%  
79 7% 30%  
80 7% 24% Last Result
81 6% 16%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.3% 4% Majority
86 1.5% 3%  
87 0.7% 1.5%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.4%  
67 1.3% 98.9%  
68 3% 98%  
69 7% 95%  
70 5% 88%  
71 14% 83%  
72 9% 68% Last Result, Median
73 14% 59%  
74 7% 46%  
75 11% 38%  
76 9% 28%  
77 5% 19%  
78 5% 14%  
79 5% 9%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 1.1% 4%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.9%  
85 0.4% 0.8% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.9% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.6%  
68 4% 97%  
69 3% 92%  
70 7% 89%  
71 5% 83%  
72 9% 78%  
73 11% 69%  
74 8% 58% Median
75 10% 49%  
76 6% 40%  
77 19% 34%  
78 6% 15%  
79 5% 9% Last Result
80 0.8% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 1.1% 99.2%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 5% 93%  
69 5% 89%  
70 6% 84%  
71 10% 78%  
72 8% 68% Median
73 6% 60%  
74 15% 55%  
75 11% 40%  
76 11% 29%  
77 5% 18% Last Result
78 5% 13%  
79 2% 8%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.5% 1.2%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.5%  
61 0.7% 99.3%  
62 2% 98.5%  
63 1.5% 96%  
64 5% 95%  
65 5% 90%  
66 6% 85%  
67 7% 79%  
68 12% 72%  
69 8% 59%  
70 10% 52% Median
71 12% 41%  
72 9% 29%  
73 6% 20%  
74 9% 15%  
75 3% 6%  
76 1.0% 3% Last Result
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 4% 91%  
58 12% 87%  
59 8% 75%  
60 14% 67%  
61 9% 53% Median
62 10% 44%  
63 16% 35%  
64 11% 18%  
65 3% 8%  
66 1.2% 4%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 1.0% 2% Last Result
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.4%  
51 0.6% 98.9%  
52 3% 98%  
53 3% 95%  
54 2% 92%  
55 8% 90%  
56 18% 83%  
57 6% 64% Median
58 6% 58%  
59 10% 52%  
60 8% 42%  
61 7% 33% Last Result
62 5% 27%  
63 9% 21%  
64 4% 12%  
65 3% 9%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.3% 3%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 1.0% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 0.8% 98.8%  
51 3% 98%  
52 4% 95%  
53 7% 91%  
54 11% 84%  
55 15% 72%  
56 8% 58% Median
57 11% 50%  
58 6% 38%  
59 14% 32%  
60 8% 18% Last Result
61 5% 11%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.8%  
21 0.8% 99.6%  
22 3% 98.9%  
23 2% 96%  
24 2% 94%  
25 2% 92%  
26 7% 90%  
27 6% 83%  
28 18% 77%  
29 8% 59% Median
30 10% 51%  
31 12% 41%  
32 12% 29%  
33 7% 17%  
34 4% 10%  
35 3% 7% Last Result
36 1.5% 4%  
37 0.8% 2%  
38 0.8% 1.5%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations