Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 1–7 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.1% 24.1–28.2% 23.5–28.8% 23.0–29.4% 22.1–30.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.5% 22.5–26.6% 22.0–27.2% 21.5–27.7% 20.6–28.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.6% 12.1–15.4% 11.7–15.9% 11.4–16.3% 10.7–17.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.1% 8.8–11.7% 8.5–12.1% 8.2–12.5% 7.6–13.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 6.8–9.4% 6.5–9.8% 6.2–10.2% 5.7–10.9%
Rødt 2.4% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.3% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 43–47 41–50 40–52 38–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 43–45 41–47 41–48 38–51
Senterpartiet 19 23 23–28 21–28 20–28 19–30
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–18 15–20 14–21 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 13–16 12–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 10 8–10 7–11 7–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 8–10 7–11 3–11 3–13
Venstre 8 3 2–7 2–8 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 98.8%  
40 2% 98.6%  
41 1.3% 96%  
42 1.3% 95%  
43 10% 94%  
44 4% 84%  
45 19% 80% Last Result
46 2% 62%  
47 50% 59% Median
48 2% 9%  
49 1.5% 7%  
50 1.4% 6%  
51 1.0% 4%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 1.1%  
54 0.1% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.7%  
38 0.4% 99.5%  
39 0.4% 99.1%  
40 0.9% 98.7%  
41 4% 98%  
42 3% 94%  
43 11% 90%  
44 20% 79%  
45 51% 60% Median
46 3% 9%  
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.7% 2% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.9%  
51 0.6% 0.8%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.7% Last Result
20 2% 98%  
21 3% 96%  
22 3% 93%  
23 52% 90% Median
24 2% 39%  
25 2% 36%  
26 21% 34%  
27 3% 13%  
28 8% 10%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 2% 98%  
15 18% 96%  
16 12% 77%  
17 5% 65%  
18 51% 60% Median
19 3% 9%  
20 3% 5%  
21 0.8% 3%  
22 0.9% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.9%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.7%  
11 2% 99.3% Last Result
12 5% 97%  
13 4% 91%  
14 52% 87% Median
15 21% 35%  
16 11% 14%  
17 0.9% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.5% 100%  
3 0% 98.5%  
4 0% 98.5%  
5 0% 98.5%  
6 0% 98.5%  
7 4% 98.5%  
8 24% 95%  
9 5% 71%  
10 58% 66% Median
11 4% 8%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.0% 1.3%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 2% 97%  
8 72% 95% Last Result, Median
9 10% 23%  
10 7% 13%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 18% 99.5%  
3 49% 81% Median
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0% 32%  
7 24% 32%  
8 5% 8% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 84% 96% Last Result, Median
2 11% 12%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 0% 1.3%  
5 0% 1.3%  
6 0% 1.3%  
7 0.5% 1.3%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 98–102 96–105 95–106 93–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 91 99.5% 89–97 88–98 87–100 84–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 93 99.5% 90–97 88–99 88–99 84–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 98% 88–96 87–97 86–97 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 35% 81–88 80–89 79–89 76–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 31% 79–87 79–87 77–88 74–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 2% 76–82 73–82 72–84 70–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 77 2% 73–81 72–82 72–83 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 1.0% 75–80 72–81 71–82 69–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 76 0.5% 72–79 70–81 70–81 69–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 67–71 64–71 63–73 61–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 61–70 61–72 61–73 59–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 59–65 59–67 56–69 55–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 55–61 54–64 53–67 49–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 56–60 55–61 53–62 51–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 34–41 33–41 30–46 28–47

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.7% 99.7%  
94 1.3% 99.0%  
95 0.8% 98%  
96 3% 97%  
97 0.3% 94%  
98 8% 94%  
99 51% 86% Median
100 2% 35%  
101 19% 33%  
102 6% 14%  
103 0.7% 7%  
104 1.4% 7%  
105 0.5% 5%  
106 2% 5%  
107 0.6% 2% Last Result
108 0.5% 2%  
109 1.0% 1.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 99.5% Majority
86 0.4% 98.6%  
87 2% 98%  
88 4% 97% Last Result
89 3% 92%  
90 1.5% 89%  
91 51% 88% Median
92 3% 37%  
93 0.9% 35%  
94 19% 34%  
95 2% 15%  
96 2% 13%  
97 2% 12%  
98 7% 10%  
99 0.2% 3%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.6% 0.7%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.2% 100%  
83 0% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.5% 99.5% Majority
86 0.5% 99.0%  
87 0.6% 98%  
88 3% 98%  
89 4% 94%  
90 2% 91%  
91 2% 89%  
92 2% 87%  
93 50% 84% Median
94 19% 34%  
95 0.7% 15%  
96 2% 15%  
97 4% 13%  
98 0.5% 9%  
99 7% 9%  
100 1.0% 1.4%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.2%  
84 0.7% 99.0%  
85 0.6% 98% Majority
86 1.0% 98%  
87 4% 97%  
88 3% 93%  
89 1.4% 90%  
90 2% 88%  
91 3% 87%  
92 51% 84% Median
93 18% 33%  
94 0.6% 15%  
95 2% 15%  
96 4% 13%  
97 7% 9%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 1.0% 1.3%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 0.4% 99.1%  
78 1.0% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96% Last Result
81 4% 92%  
82 2% 88%  
83 50% 87% Median
84 2% 37%  
85 2% 35% Majority
86 20% 33%  
87 1.2% 12%  
88 1.3% 11%  
89 8% 10%  
90 0.2% 2%  
91 1.0% 1.3%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.2%  
76 0.8% 98.5%  
77 1.3% 98%  
78 0.7% 96%  
79 6% 96% Last Result
80 2% 90%  
81 2% 88%  
82 49% 86% Median
83 0.9% 36%  
84 4% 35%  
85 19% 31% Majority
86 1.1% 12%  
87 8% 11%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.2% 1.5%  
90 1.0% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.1% 99.3%  
72 3% 99.1%  
73 2% 96%  
74 0.8% 95%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 92%  
77 51% 89% Last Result, Median
78 2% 38%  
79 19% 36%  
80 2% 17%  
81 1.0% 15%  
82 10% 14%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 1.0% 99.7%  
71 0.9% 98.7%  
72 7% 98%  
73 4% 91%  
74 2% 87%  
75 0.6% 85%  
76 18% 85%  
77 51% 67% Median
78 3% 16%  
79 2% 13%  
80 1.4% 12%  
81 3% 10%  
82 4% 7%  
83 1.0% 3%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 99.4%  
71 2% 98.6%  
72 3% 96%  
73 2% 94%  
74 2% 92%  
75 3% 90%  
76 51% 87% Last Result, Median
77 2% 37%  
78 17% 35%  
79 2% 17%  
80 7% 15%  
81 4% 8%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.0% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 1.0% 99.6%  
70 7% 98.6%  
71 0.5% 91%  
72 4% 91%  
73 2% 87%  
74 0.7% 85%  
75 19% 85%  
76 50% 66% Median
77 2% 16%  
78 2% 13%  
79 2% 11%  
80 4% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 1.3% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 98%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 3% 95%  
66 1.1% 92%  
67 3% 91%  
68 51% 88% Last Result, Median
69 4% 38%  
70 20% 34%  
71 10% 14%  
72 1.3% 4%  
73 0.6% 3%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.4% 100%  
59 0.9% 99.6%  
60 0.4% 98.7%  
61 9% 98%  
62 0.7% 90%  
63 1.3% 89%  
64 0.4% 88%  
65 0.4% 87%  
66 2% 87%  
67 19% 85%  
68 50% 66% Median
69 5% 15%  
70 1.4% 10%  
71 2% 9%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.1% 1.0%  
76 0.4% 0.9%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 1.1% 99.9%  
56 1.4% 98.8%  
57 1.1% 97%  
58 1.0% 96%  
59 9% 95%  
60 18% 86%  
61 2% 68%  
62 4% 66%  
63 0.2% 62%  
64 2% 62%  
65 53% 60% Median
66 1.4% 8%  
67 2% 6%  
68 1.4% 4%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.8% 1.5%  
71 0.4% 0.7%  
72 0% 0.3% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.4%  
51 0.8% 99.3%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 0.3% 98%  
54 7% 97%  
55 2% 91%  
56 4% 88%  
57 1.0% 84%  
58 49% 83% Median
59 3% 34%  
60 20% 31%  
61 3% 11% Last Result
62 1.1% 9%  
63 2% 8%  
64 0.8% 5%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 0.4% 3%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.7%  
52 0.7% 99.4%  
53 3% 98.8%  
54 1.1% 96%  
55 2% 95%  
56 3% 93%  
57 4% 90%  
58 3% 86%  
59 73% 83% Median
60 3% 10% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.2%  
66 0% 0.8%  
67 0.7% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.8%  
29 1.3% 99.1%  
30 0.7% 98%  
31 0.5% 97%  
32 0.9% 97%  
33 1.1% 96%  
34 50% 95% Median
35 1.3% 45% Last Result
36 1.2% 44%  
37 4% 43%  
38 1.3% 39%  
39 8% 37%  
40 4% 29%  
41 20% 25%  
42 0.5% 5%  
43 1.0% 4%  
44 0.1% 3%  
45 0.5% 3%  
46 1.0% 3%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations