Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 7–8 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.8% 26.0–29.7% 25.6–30.2% 25.1–30.7% 24.3–31.6%
Høyre 25.0% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.4–26.8% 22.0–27.3% 21.2–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.9% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.1% 10.3–15.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.4% 9.8–15.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Venstre 4.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 51 47–55 45–55 45–56 43–58
Høyre 45 42 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–25 18–25 18–26 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 8–13 8–13 7–14
Venstre 8 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 7–10 3–10 3–11 2–12
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.7%  
44 2% 99.1%  
45 5% 98%  
46 2% 93%  
47 8% 90%  
48 10% 83%  
49 10% 73% Last Result
50 9% 63%  
51 9% 54% Median
52 15% 45%  
53 13% 30%  
54 6% 18%  
55 8% 11%  
56 2% 3%  
57 1.0% 1.5%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 2% 97%  
40 14% 94%  
41 17% 80%  
42 17% 63% Median
43 12% 47%  
44 12% 35%  
45 10% 23% Last Result
46 5% 13%  
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.3%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 6% 97%  
20 8% 91%  
21 15% 83%  
22 10% 69%  
23 17% 59% Median
24 24% 41%  
25 11% 17%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.4% 3% Last Result
28 0.8% 1.4%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 5% 98%  
19 9% 93% Last Result
20 23% 84%  
21 16% 61% Median
22 21% 44%  
23 6% 23%  
24 5% 17%  
25 7% 11%  
26 3% 4%  
27 1.0% 1.4%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.7% 99.7%  
8 11% 99.0%  
9 25% 88%  
10 24% 63% Median
11 20% 38% Last Result
12 13% 19%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 0.3% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 17% 98%  
8 24% 81% Last Result
9 26% 57% Median
10 21% 31%  
11 8% 10%  
12 0.9% 1.4%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.7%  
3 5% 99.4%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 18% 94%  
8 32% 76% Last Result, Median
9 27% 44%  
10 13% 17%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100% Last Result
2 52% 88% Median
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0% 36%  
7 28% 36%  
8 6% 8%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 75% 83% Last Result, Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 99–108 98–109 96–111 95–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 91 95% 87–96 84–96 82–97 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 74% 82–91 81–92 80–94 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 68% 81–90 80–91 79–93 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 83 32% 79–88 78–89 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 34% 79–87 77–88 75–89 74–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 82 26% 78–87 77–88 75–89 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 26% 78–86 76–87 74–88 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 18% 76–85 74–86 73–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 9% 75–84 73–85 72–86 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.2% 70–78 69–80 68–81 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 66 0% 61–70 60–71 58–73 57–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 61–70 61–71 59–72 58–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 57–65 55–65 54–66 53–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 59 0% 55–64 55–64 53–66 51–69
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 34–42 33–42 33–44 30–45

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 2% 99.3%  
97 1.0% 97%  
98 4% 96%  
99 3% 92%  
100 9% 89%  
101 10% 80%  
102 11% 70%  
103 14% 59% Median
104 7% 45%  
105 6% 38%  
106 6% 32%  
107 8% 26% Last Result
108 12% 18%  
109 2% 6%  
110 2% 5%  
111 2% 3%  
112 1.1% 2%  
113 0.2% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.8% 99.7%  
82 2% 98.9%  
83 1.1% 97%  
84 1.3% 96%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 1.4% 93%  
87 2% 92%  
88 5% 89% Last Result
89 18% 84%  
90 8% 66%  
91 16% 59% Median
92 6% 42%  
93 11% 37%  
94 6% 25%  
95 4% 20%  
96 11% 16%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.8% 1.5%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 1.2% 99.1%  
80 2% 98%  
81 5% 96% Last Result
82 6% 91%  
83 5% 85%  
84 6% 80%  
85 5% 74% Median, Majority
86 11% 69%  
87 12% 58%  
88 11% 46%  
89 15% 35%  
90 9% 21%  
91 5% 12%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.6% 1.0%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.6%  
78 1.2% 99.1%  
79 2% 98%  
80 5% 96% Last Result
81 6% 91%  
82 5% 85%  
83 6% 80%  
84 5% 73% Median
85 7% 68% Majority
86 11% 61%  
87 16% 50%  
88 9% 34%  
89 13% 25%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 1.3% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.8%  
77 1.3% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 5% 93%  
80 13% 88%  
81 9% 75%  
82 16% 66%  
83 11% 50% Median
84 7% 39%  
85 5% 32% Majority
86 6% 27%  
87 5% 20%  
88 6% 15%  
89 5% 9% Last Result
90 2% 4%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.7%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 1.0% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 5% 92%  
80 9% 87% Last Result
81 7% 77%  
82 19% 71%  
83 8% 52% Median
84 9% 44%  
85 11% 34% Majority
86 6% 24%  
87 9% 18%  
88 5% 9%  
89 3% 5%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 5% 93%  
79 9% 88%  
80 15% 79%  
81 11% 65%  
82 12% 54% Median
83 11% 42%  
84 5% 31%  
85 6% 26% Majority
86 5% 20%  
87 6% 15%  
88 5% 9% Last Result
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.9%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.8% 99.7%  
74 2% 98.9%  
75 1.3% 97%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 5% 91%  
79 7% 86% Last Result
80 9% 79%  
81 13% 70%  
82 13% 56% Median
83 6% 43%  
84 12% 37%  
85 7% 26% Majority
86 9% 18%  
87 5% 9%  
88 3% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 1.3% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 4% 90% Last Result
78 5% 86%  
79 12% 81%  
80 11% 69%  
81 13% 58% Median
82 12% 45%  
83 6% 33%  
84 9% 27%  
85 9% 18% Majority
86 7% 10%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.3% 1.4%  
89 0.8% 1.0%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 1.1% 99.5%  
72 2% 98%  
73 1.5% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 4% 90% Last Result
77 5% 86%  
78 8% 81%  
79 16% 73%  
80 13% 57% Median
81 11% 45%  
82 5% 33%  
83 5% 28%  
84 13% 23%  
85 6% 9% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.4% 1.4%  
88 0.7% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.5%  
67 1.0% 99.1%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 5% 95%  
71 12% 90%  
72 13% 78%  
73 15% 65%  
74 11% 49% Median
75 6% 39%  
76 10% 32%  
77 5% 23%  
78 8% 18%  
79 3% 10%  
80 3% 7% Last Result
81 1.3% 4%  
82 1.4% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 1.1% 99.5%  
65 3% 98%  
66 2% 95%  
67 4% 94%  
68 5% 90% Last Result
69 7% 85%  
70 8% 77%  
71 11% 70%  
72 15% 58% Median
73 10% 43%  
74 7% 33%  
75 14% 27%  
76 4% 13%  
77 6% 9%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.1%  
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 1.1% 99.6%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 12% 94%  
62 8% 82% Last Result
63 6% 74%  
64 6% 68% Median
65 7% 62%  
66 14% 55%  
67 11% 41%  
68 10% 30%  
69 9% 20%  
70 3% 11%  
71 4% 8%  
72 1.0% 4%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 1.3% 98.7%  
60 2% 97%  
61 7% 96%  
62 6% 88%  
63 9% 83%  
64 19% 73%  
65 8% 55% Median
66 15% 47%  
67 7% 32%  
68 9% 25%  
69 4% 16%  
70 5% 12%  
71 4% 7%  
72 1.2% 3% Last Result
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 3% 99.1%  
55 2% 96%  
56 2% 93%  
57 5% 91%  
58 15% 86%  
59 9% 71%  
60 9% 62% Last Result
61 10% 53% Median
62 10% 43%  
63 6% 33%  
64 14% 27%  
65 10% 13%  
66 1.5% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.7%  
52 1.3% 99.2%  
53 0.6% 98%  
54 1.4% 97%  
55 6% 96%  
56 7% 90%  
57 9% 82%  
58 15% 74%  
59 11% 58% Median
60 7% 47%  
61 11% 40% Last Result
62 10% 30%  
63 7% 19%  
64 8% 12%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.9% 3%  
67 0.4% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.4%  
69 0.5% 0.9%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 0.5% 99.4%  
32 0.7% 98.8%  
33 4% 98%  
34 10% 94%  
35 3% 84% Last Result
36 9% 82%  
37 9% 73%  
38 11% 64% Median
39 18% 53%  
40 15% 35%  
41 8% 20%  
42 7% 12%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 3%  
45 1.4% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations