Opinion Poll by Norstat, 7–12 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.5% 25.4–29.8% 24.8–30.5% 24.3–31.1% 23.3–32.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.8% 21.7–26.0% 21.2–26.6% 20.7–27.1% 19.7–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.7% 11.2–14.5% 10.7–15.0% 10.4–15.5% 9.7–16.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.8% 10.3–13.6% 9.9–14.1% 9.6–14.5% 8.9–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.8% 4.5–8.1% 4.0–8.8%
Rødt 2.4% 5.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.3% 3.4–8.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.7% 2.3–6.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 2.0–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.0% 1.9–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 45–52 44–54 44–56 42–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–47 39–48 38–49 36–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 19–26 18–27 18–27 17–29
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–26 17–27 17–28 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–14 8–14 8–14 2–16
Rødt 1 10 8–12 7–12 2–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 1.3% 99.1%  
44 3% 98%  
45 10% 94% Last Result
46 11% 84%  
47 11% 73%  
48 11% 63%  
49 16% 52% Median
50 13% 35%  
51 9% 23%  
52 6% 14%  
53 3% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 0.8% 3%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 0.3% 1.3%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 0.7% 99.3%  
38 1.4% 98.6%  
39 6% 97%  
40 7% 91%  
41 15% 84%  
42 19% 68% Median
43 7% 49%  
44 5% 42%  
45 7% 37%  
46 13% 30%  
47 8% 17%  
48 7% 9%  
49 1.1% 3% Last Result
50 0.7% 1.4%  
51 0.1% 0.7%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 1.2% 99.5%  
18 4% 98%  
19 9% 95%  
20 7% 86%  
21 16% 79%  
22 10% 63%  
23 14% 54% Median
24 13% 40%  
25 13% 27%  
26 7% 14%  
27 5% 7% Last Result
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.9% 1.3%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 1.3% 99.7%  
17 7% 98%  
18 11% 92%  
19 16% 81% Last Result
20 12% 66%  
21 9% 54% Median
22 8% 44%  
23 5% 36%  
24 14% 31%  
25 4% 17%  
26 8% 13%  
27 1.4% 5%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 0.8% 99.5%  
8 5% 98.7%  
9 15% 93%  
10 15% 79%  
11 22% 64% Last Result, Median
12 21% 41%  
13 10% 21%  
14 8% 10%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.8%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 3% 100%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 3% 97%  
8 12% 94%  
9 21% 82%  
10 28% 61% Median
11 20% 33%  
12 10% 13%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 13% 99.6%  
2 8% 86%  
3 25% 78%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.2% 53%  
7 10% 53% Median
8 22% 43% Last Result
9 18% 21%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 4% 99.8%  
2 64% 96% Median
3 0.6% 33%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0.1% 32%  
7 11% 32%  
8 17% 21% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 1.0%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 29% 99.1% Last Result
2 41% 70% Median
3 7% 29%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0.1% 21%  
7 13% 21%  
8 6% 8%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 96–108 95–109 93–110 92–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 76% 83–93 82–94 81–95 77–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 83 38% 78–89 78–90 78–92 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 62% 80–91 79–91 77–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 46% 79–90 77–91 75–91 73–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 80 24% 76–86 74–87 74–88 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 8% 73–84 71–86 71–87 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 1.3% 70–80 68–83 67–84 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.6% 70–81 69–82 68–83 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.5% 68–79 66–80 66–81 63–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0.3% 67–75 66–76 65–80 64–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 65–73 64–75 63–77 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–70 59–71 58–72 56–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 52–64 51–67 50–68 48–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 50–59 48–60 48–61 46–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 26–35 25–37 24–37 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.5% 99.7%  
93 2% 99.2%  
94 0.7% 97%  
95 3% 97%  
96 4% 94%  
97 5% 90%  
98 3% 84%  
99 9% 81%  
100 12% 72%  
101 10% 60%  
102 7% 50% Median
103 5% 43%  
104 11% 38%  
105 8% 27%  
106 5% 19%  
107 3% 14% Last Result
108 3% 11%  
109 4% 8%  
110 2% 4%  
111 0.9% 2%  
112 0.5% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.2% 99.4%  
79 0.3% 99.1%  
80 0.8% 98.8%  
81 2% 98% Last Result
82 5% 96%  
83 9% 91%  
84 6% 83%  
85 6% 76% Majority
86 5% 70% Median
87 6% 65%  
88 5% 59%  
89 8% 55%  
90 8% 47%  
91 9% 38%  
92 9% 29%  
93 12% 21%  
94 4% 9%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.2%  
98 0.1% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.7% 99.1%  
78 12% 98%  
79 6% 86%  
80 8% 81%  
81 8% 72%  
82 9% 65%  
83 11% 55% Median
84 7% 45%  
85 4% 38% Majority
86 7% 34%  
87 6% 27%  
88 11% 21%  
89 5% 11% Last Result
90 1.4% 5%  
91 0.7% 4%  
92 1.2% 3%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.2%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.3%  
76 0.6% 98.8%  
77 1.3% 98%  
78 0.8% 97%  
79 1.5% 96%  
80 5% 95% Last Result
81 11% 89%  
82 6% 79%  
83 7% 73%  
84 4% 66% Median
85 7% 62% Majority
86 11% 55%  
87 9% 45%  
88 8% 35%  
89 8% 27%  
90 6% 19%  
91 12% 13%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 1.1% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 6% 92%  
80 3% 86%  
81 7% 83%  
82 8% 75%  
83 6% 67% Median
84 15% 61%  
85 13% 46% Majority
86 8% 33%  
87 6% 26%  
88 5% 19% Last Result
89 4% 15%  
90 2% 11%  
91 7% 9%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.3% 1.0%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.6%  
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 0.5% 98.8%  
74 3% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 12% 91%  
77 9% 79%  
78 9% 70%  
79 8% 61%  
80 8% 53%  
81 5% 45% Median
82 6% 41%  
83 5% 34%  
84 6% 30%  
85 6% 24% Majority
86 9% 17%  
87 5% 8%  
88 2% 4% Last Result
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.8% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 98.9%  
71 3% 98%  
72 5% 95%  
73 4% 90%  
74 6% 86%  
75 6% 80%  
76 6% 74% Median
77 8% 68%  
78 6% 59%  
79 8% 53%  
80 4% 45% Last Result
81 13% 41%  
82 9% 28%  
83 4% 19%  
84 7% 15%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 3% 99.2%  
68 3% 96%  
69 2% 93%  
70 2% 91%  
71 11% 89%  
72 3% 78%  
73 9% 76%  
74 9% 66% Median
75 14% 57%  
76 8% 43%  
77 10% 35%  
78 7% 25%  
79 6% 18%  
80 2% 12% Last Result
81 2% 10%  
82 2% 8%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 1.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.4%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 6% 93%  
71 3% 87%  
72 8% 85%  
73 7% 77%  
74 7% 69% Median
75 11% 62%  
76 7% 51%  
77 10% 44%  
78 4% 34%  
79 8% 30% Last Result
80 10% 22%  
81 2% 12%  
82 7% 10%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.3% 99.3%  
65 1.2% 98.9%  
66 4% 98%  
67 2% 94%  
68 3% 92%  
69 6% 89%  
70 9% 83%  
71 8% 74%  
72 9% 66% Median
73 16% 57%  
74 9% 41%  
75 8% 32%  
76 5% 24%  
77 4% 19% Last Result
78 2% 14%  
79 5% 12%  
80 5% 7%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.4% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.5%  
65 3% 98.9%  
66 3% 96%  
67 4% 92%  
68 5% 89%  
69 14% 84%  
70 11% 70%  
71 14% 59%  
72 12% 45% Last Result, Median
73 15% 33%  
74 7% 19%  
75 6% 12%  
76 2% 6%  
77 0.8% 4%  
78 0.5% 4%  
79 0.3% 3%  
80 0.4% 3%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 99.4%  
62 0.6% 98.7%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 4% 94%  
66 3% 90%  
67 5% 86%  
68 8% 82%  
69 11% 73%  
70 11% 62% Median
71 16% 51%  
72 13% 35%  
73 14% 22%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.3% 4% Last Result
77 1.0% 3%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 0.9% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 96%  
60 8% 94%  
61 8% 86%  
62 4% 78%  
63 16% 74% Median
64 10% 57%  
65 9% 48%  
66 6% 38%  
67 5% 32%  
68 9% 27% Last Result
69 6% 18%  
70 7% 12%  
71 2% 5%  
72 3% 3%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.6%  
49 0.8% 99.4%  
50 2% 98.6%  
51 4% 97%  
52 3% 93%  
53 7% 90%  
54 8% 83%  
55 6% 75%  
56 16% 69%  
57 7% 53%  
58 6% 46% Median
59 6% 40%  
60 6% 34%  
61 6% 28% Last Result
62 5% 22%  
63 3% 17%  
64 4% 14%  
65 2% 10%  
66 2% 8%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.4% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 0.8% 99.3%  
48 4% 98.5%  
49 4% 94%  
50 3% 90%  
51 12% 88%  
52 10% 76%  
53 9% 66% Median
54 7% 57%  
55 12% 51%  
56 9% 38%  
57 6% 29%  
58 11% 23%  
59 5% 12%  
60 4% 8% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 0.8% 99.4%  
23 1.0% 98.6%  
24 3% 98%  
25 2% 95%  
26 4% 93%  
27 14% 89%  
28 4% 74%  
29 8% 70%  
30 8% 62% Median
31 14% 54%  
32 8% 40%  
33 8% 32%  
34 8% 25%  
35 7% 17% Last Result
36 3% 10%  
37 5% 7%  
38 0.7% 2%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations