Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 16–20 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.9% 24.2–27.7% 23.7–28.2% 23.2–28.7% 22.5–29.6%
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–27.9% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.8–16.5% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Venstre 4.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–50 42–50 42–51 41–53
Høyre 45 45 42–48 41–50 40–50 39–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–29 22–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 16–22 15–22 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Venstre 8 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 2–13
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.6%  
42 7% 98%  
43 13% 91%  
44 7% 78%  
45 18% 71%  
46 14% 52% Median
47 14% 39%  
48 11% 25%  
49 3% 14% Last Result
50 6% 11%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.7% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.6%  
40 3% 99.2%  
41 5% 96%  
42 7% 91%  
43 13% 84%  
44 14% 71%  
45 23% 57% Last Result, Median
46 10% 34%  
47 8% 24%  
48 6% 16%  
49 5% 10%  
50 3% 5%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.7% 1.0%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.4%  
22 2% 98.5%  
23 6% 96%  
24 8% 91%  
25 27% 82%  
26 15% 55% Median
27 17% 40% Last Result
28 11% 22%  
29 8% 11%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 1.2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 17% 96%  
17 27% 79%  
18 24% 52% Median
19 10% 28% Last Result
20 5% 17%  
21 6% 12%  
22 5% 6%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 10% 98% Last Result
12 15% 88%  
13 21% 73%  
14 24% 52% Median
15 15% 28%  
16 9% 12%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 4% 98%  
8 22% 93% Last Result
9 27% 71% Median
10 30% 44%  
11 11% 15%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.1% 1.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 35% 98%  
3 0% 63%  
4 0% 63%  
5 0% 63%  
6 0% 63%  
7 17% 63% Median
8 29% 46%  
9 13% 17%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9%  
2 9% 91%  
3 36% 83% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 16% 46%  
8 23% 31% Last Result
9 7% 8%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 69% 73% Last Result, Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 99–108 98–109 97–110 94–112
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 86 63% 82–90 81–92 80–93 77–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 85 54% 81–89 80–91 79–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 32% 79–87 78–89 77–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 46% 80–88 78–89 77–90 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 83 37% 79–87 77–88 76–89 75–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 6% 76–84 75–85 74–87 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 3% 74–84 73–84 73–85 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 2% 73–83 72–83 72–84 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 67–74 66–76 65–77 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 70 0% 64–73 64–75 63–76 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 64–73 63–74 63–75 61–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 66 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–68 60–69 59–70 57–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 59 0% 55–63 54–65 53–66 50–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–63 55–65 54–65 53–68
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 28–36 27–37 26–38 23–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.8%  
95 0.5% 99.5%  
96 0.8% 99.0%  
97 1.5% 98%  
98 3% 97%  
99 11% 94%  
100 8% 83%  
101 13% 75% Median
102 7% 61%  
103 8% 54%  
104 13% 46%  
105 12% 33%  
106 6% 22%  
107 6% 16% Last Result
108 4% 10%  
109 2% 6%  
110 3% 4%  
111 0.3% 1.0%  
112 0.5% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.5%  
78 0.9% 99.3%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 1.2% 98%  
81 4% 97%  
82 6% 93%  
83 11% 87%  
84 12% 76% Median
85 13% 63% Majority
86 8% 51%  
87 11% 43%  
88 12% 31%  
89 7% 19% Last Result
90 3% 12%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 5%  
93 3% 4%  
94 0.7% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.7% 99.3%  
78 0.8% 98.6%  
79 1.1% 98%  
80 4% 97%  
81 5% 93%  
82 12% 89%  
83 12% 77% Median
84 11% 65%  
85 9% 54% Majority
86 9% 45%  
87 16% 36%  
88 6% 20% Last Result
89 5% 14%  
90 4% 9%  
91 1.3% 5%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.4%  
76 0.7% 98.8%  
77 3% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 9% 94%  
80 9% 85%  
81 8% 76%  
82 11% 69% Median
83 15% 58%  
84 11% 43%  
85 8% 32% Majority
86 3% 24%  
87 11% 20%  
88 4% 9% Last Result
89 2% 6%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.5%  
77 3% 98.9%  
78 1.3% 96%  
79 4% 95%  
80 5% 91%  
81 6% 86% Last Result
82 16% 80%  
83 9% 64%  
84 9% 55%  
85 11% 46% Majority
86 12% 35% Median
87 12% 23%  
88 5% 11%  
89 4% 7%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 0.7%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 3% 98.9%  
77 2% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 3% 91%  
80 7% 88% Last Result
81 12% 81%  
82 11% 69%  
83 8% 57%  
84 13% 49%  
85 12% 37% Median, Majority
86 11% 24%  
87 6% 13%  
88 4% 7%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.7%  
93 0.4% 0.5%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.6% 99.6%  
73 0.7% 99.0%  
74 3% 98%  
75 2% 95%  
76 5% 93%  
77 7% 88%  
78 7% 81%  
79 19% 74%  
80 11% 55% Last Result, Median
81 11% 44%  
82 13% 33%  
83 6% 20%  
84 8% 14%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.2% 4%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 99.0%  
73 5% 98%  
74 8% 93%  
75 10% 85%  
76 7% 75%  
77 16% 68%  
78 7% 51%  
79 12% 45% Median
80 10% 32% Last Result
81 6% 22%  
82 4% 17%  
83 2% 12%  
84 7% 10%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 1.4% 99.5%  
72 5% 98%  
73 8% 93%  
74 9% 85%  
75 6% 77%  
76 16% 71%  
77 8% 55%  
78 14% 47% Median
79 5% 33% Last Result
80 10% 27%  
81 5% 18%  
82 2% 13%  
83 7% 10%  
84 1.1% 4%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.3%  
65 2% 99.0%  
66 4% 97%  
67 3% 93%  
68 8% 89%  
69 11% 81%  
70 19% 71%  
71 11% 51% Median
72 11% 40% Last Result
73 11% 29%  
74 8% 18%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.0%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.5%  
63 4% 98.9%  
64 6% 95%  
65 2% 89%  
66 9% 88%  
67 5% 78%  
68 7% 73% Median
69 14% 67%  
70 8% 53%  
71 17% 45%  
72 10% 28%  
73 8% 18%  
74 2% 10%  
75 4% 8%  
76 1.2% 3%  
77 1.1% 2% Last Result
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 1.0% 99.2%  
63 7% 98%  
64 3% 91%  
65 7% 88%  
66 6% 81%  
67 9% 75% Median
68 10% 67%  
69 10% 56%  
70 15% 46%  
71 11% 31%  
72 10% 20%  
73 3% 10%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.8% 2% Last Result
77 0.7% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.3%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 2% 96%  
61 4% 94%  
62 6% 90% Last Result
63 6% 84%  
64 12% 78%  
65 13% 67%  
66 8% 54%  
67 7% 46%  
68 13% 39% Median
69 8% 25%  
70 11% 17%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.5% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.5%  
59 4% 98.6%  
60 10% 95%  
61 11% 85%  
62 12% 74%  
63 10% 62%  
64 16% 53% Median
65 9% 36%  
66 8% 27%  
67 5% 19%  
68 6% 14% Last Result
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.3% 1.1%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.3% 99.5%  
52 0.9% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 7% 93%  
56 7% 86%  
57 10% 79% Median
58 17% 68%  
59 8% 51%  
60 10% 43%  
61 8% 33% Last Result
62 12% 25%  
63 3% 13%  
64 2% 9%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.3%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 95%  
56 12% 92%  
57 9% 80%  
58 9% 71%  
59 12% 62%  
60 16% 51% Last Result, Median
61 11% 35%  
62 10% 24%  
63 4% 13%  
64 2% 9%  
65 5% 7%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.7%  
23 0.3% 99.6%  
24 0.3% 99.3%  
25 1.0% 99.0%  
26 1.1% 98%  
27 4% 97%  
28 7% 93%  
29 7% 86%  
30 8% 79% Median
31 15% 71%  
32 7% 56%  
33 14% 49%  
34 11% 35%  
35 11% 23% Last Result
36 5% 12%  
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations