Opinion Poll by Sentio, 14–20 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.7% 24.6–29.0% 24.0–29.6% 23.5–30.2% 22.5–31.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.0% 23.9–28.2% 23.3–28.8% 22.8–29.4% 21.8–30.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.3% 11.7–15.1% 11.3–15.6% 10.9–16.0% 10.2–16.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.8% 9.4–12.4% 9.0–12.9% 8.6–13.3% 8.0–14.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.1% 4.7–8.4% 4.3–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.3–6.0% 3.1–6.2% 2.7–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.6–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.3–5.0% 2.0–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 43–53 43–54 41–54 40–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 42–50 42–52 41–53 39–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–28 19–28 19–29 18–31
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–14 9–15 8–15 7–16
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 2–10 1–10 1–12
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 2% 97%  
43 11% 95%  
44 7% 85%  
45 11% 77% Last Result
46 8% 67%  
47 9% 59%  
48 9% 51% Median
49 9% 42%  
50 11% 33%  
51 4% 22%  
52 8% 18%  
53 4% 10%  
54 4% 7%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.8% 1.4%  
57 0.2% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.4%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.4%  
41 3% 98.8%  
42 7% 96%  
43 5% 89%  
44 10% 84%  
45 11% 74%  
46 10% 64%  
47 15% 53% Median
48 9% 39%  
49 4% 29% Last Result
50 16% 25%  
51 3% 10%  
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.3% 1.0%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 3% 98%  
20 3% 94%  
21 9% 91%  
22 11% 82%  
23 9% 71%  
24 15% 62% Median
25 22% 47%  
26 9% 25%  
27 5% 15% Last Result
28 7% 10%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.9% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 4% 96%  
17 11% 92%  
18 15% 81%  
19 19% 66% Last Result, Median
20 19% 47%  
21 14% 28%  
22 7% 14%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.4% 99.8%  
8 3% 99.4%  
9 8% 96%  
10 15% 88%  
11 27% 74% Last Result, Median
12 21% 47%  
13 15% 26%  
14 6% 11%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 29% 98.9%  
3 0% 70%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0.6% 70%  
7 12% 69%  
8 22% 57% Median
9 18% 35%  
10 14% 17%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 1.0%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 3% 97%  
3 32% 94%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 0% 62%  
7 18% 62% Median
8 26% 44% Last Result
9 11% 18%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.6% 0.8%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 65% 98% Median
3 1.4% 33%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0.4% 31%  
7 10% 31%  
8 13% 21% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 0.9% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 24% 99.5% Last Result
2 42% 75% Median
3 11% 33%  
4 0.1% 23%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0.8% 22%  
7 8% 22%  
8 11% 13%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–107 94–108 92–109 89–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 70% 82–92 81–94 79–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 68% 81–92 80–94 78–95 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 49% 79–90 77–91 76–93 73–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 51% 79–90 78–92 76–93 74–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 82 30% 77–87 75–88 74–90 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 15% 75–85 74–87 73–89 70–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 3% 72–82 71–84 70–85 67–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 75 2% 69–82 69–83 67–84 65–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 76 1.1% 70–82 68–84 67–84 65–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.2% 67–77 66–79 65–80 63–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0.1% 67–76 65–78 64–80 61–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 58–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 52–63 51–64 50–66 47–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–62 52–64 51–65 50–68
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 24–34 22–36 22–37 20–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.6% 99.4%  
91 0.8% 98.7%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 1.1% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 4% 94%  
96 2% 90%  
97 13% 88%  
98 8% 75%  
99 5% 67%  
100 10% 62% Median
101 9% 52%  
102 5% 43%  
103 4% 38%  
104 6% 33%  
105 8% 28%  
106 9% 20%  
107 4% 10% Last Result
108 2% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.2% 1.0%  
112 0.4% 0.7%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 1.3% 99.3%  
79 1.2% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 95% Last Result
82 8% 93%  
83 5% 84%  
84 9% 79%  
85 6% 70% Majority
86 5% 64%  
87 8% 58% Median
88 12% 50%  
89 5% 38%  
90 5% 33%  
91 5% 28%  
92 13% 22%  
93 3% 10%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.4% 2%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.7% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.6%  
77 1.1% 99.2%  
78 1.1% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 2% 95%  
81 6% 93%  
82 5% 87%  
83 8% 82%  
84 5% 74%  
85 5% 68% Majority
86 10% 63% Median
87 7% 54%  
88 9% 47% Last Result
89 7% 38%  
90 6% 30%  
91 10% 25%  
92 5% 14%  
93 4% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.5%  
98 0.6% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.5%  
74 0.8% 99.4%  
75 0.6% 98.6%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 95%  
78 2% 93%  
79 5% 91%  
80 7% 86% Last Result
81 10% 79%  
82 7% 69%  
83 8% 62%  
84 5% 54%  
85 8% 49% Median, Majority
86 12% 42%  
87 4% 30%  
88 3% 26%  
89 11% 23%  
90 5% 12%  
91 3% 7%  
92 0.6% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.4% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 2% 99.0%  
77 0.6% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 5% 93%  
80 11% 88%  
81 3% 77%  
82 4% 74%  
83 12% 70% Median
84 8% 58%  
85 5% 51% Majority
86 8% 46%  
87 7% 38%  
88 10% 31%  
89 7% 21% Last Result
90 5% 14%  
91 2% 9%  
92 2% 7%  
93 3% 5%  
94 0.6% 2%  
95 0.8% 1.4%  
96 0.1% 0.6%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.6%  
72 0.6% 98.8%  
73 0.4% 98%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 3% 93%  
77 13% 90%  
78 5% 78%  
79 5% 72%  
80 5% 67%  
81 12% 62% Median
82 8% 50%  
83 5% 42%  
84 6% 36%  
85 9% 30% Majority
86 5% 21%  
87 8% 16%  
88 2% 7% Last Result
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 1.1% 98.8%  
73 1.5% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 3% 93%  
76 3% 89%  
77 5% 86%  
78 10% 81%  
79 9% 71% Median
80 10% 62% Last Result
81 9% 53%  
82 10% 44%  
83 7% 34%  
84 12% 27%  
85 7% 15% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.1% 4%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.4%  
92 0.6% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.3%  
69 1.0% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 5% 94%  
73 3% 89%  
74 8% 85%  
75 6% 78%  
76 13% 72%  
77 7% 59% Median
78 8% 52%  
79 10% 43% Last Result
80 7% 34%  
81 12% 27%  
82 6% 15%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.0% 3% Majority
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.1% 0.8%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 98.9%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 1.5% 97%  
69 6% 95%  
70 7% 89%  
71 7% 83%  
72 5% 75%  
73 10% 70%  
74 4% 60%  
75 8% 56% Median
76 6% 48%  
77 6% 42% Last Result
78 6% 36%  
79 7% 30%  
80 10% 24%  
81 3% 14%  
82 4% 10%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.9% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.9%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 0.4% 99.3%  
67 1.4% 98.9%  
68 3% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 12% 93%  
71 3% 80%  
72 6% 77%  
73 6% 71%  
74 8% 65% Median
75 6% 57%  
76 6% 51%  
77 7% 46%  
78 11% 38%  
79 10% 27%  
80 4% 18% Last Result
81 4% 14%  
82 2% 10%  
83 1.4% 8%  
84 6% 7%  
85 0.5% 1.1% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.5%  
64 0.9% 99.0%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 8% 94%  
68 4% 86%  
69 10% 82%  
70 9% 72%  
71 11% 63%  
72 6% 52%  
73 7% 45% Median
74 9% 38%  
75 4% 29%  
76 5% 26% Last Result
77 12% 21%  
78 2% 9%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 99.4%  
63 1.1% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 3% 93%  
67 3% 90%  
68 13% 87%  
69 5% 74%  
70 8% 69%  
71 12% 60%  
72 9% 49% Last Result, Median
73 5% 40%  
74 6% 34%  
75 7% 29%  
76 12% 22%  
77 3% 10%  
78 3% 7%  
79 1.2% 4%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.3%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.6%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 94%  
62 6% 89%  
63 9% 84%  
64 11% 74%  
65 7% 63%  
66 14% 56% Median
67 7% 43%  
68 7% 36% Last Result
69 7% 29%  
70 11% 22%  
71 3% 11%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 5%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 0.3% 99.2%  
49 0.5% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 2% 95%  
52 9% 94%  
53 4% 85%  
54 7% 81%  
55 11% 74%  
56 5% 64%  
57 7% 59% Median
58 4% 52%  
59 14% 48%  
60 7% 34%  
61 5% 26% Last Result
62 7% 21%  
63 7% 14%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.3% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.3%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.9% 99.6%  
51 1.2% 98.7%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 95%  
54 6% 91%  
55 5% 85%  
56 10% 79%  
57 13% 70%  
58 7% 57% Median
59 11% 50%  
60 12% 39% Last Result
61 12% 27%  
62 6% 15%  
63 1.5% 9%  
64 4% 7%  
65 0.9% 3%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.7%  
21 1.3% 99.0%  
22 3% 98%  
23 4% 95%  
24 2% 91%  
25 6% 90%  
26 5% 83%  
27 8% 78%  
28 6% 70% Median
29 17% 64%  
30 13% 48%  
31 9% 35%  
32 4% 26%  
33 7% 22%  
34 5% 15%  
35 5% 10% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 2%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations