Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 20–25 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.5% 26.7–30.5% 26.2–31.0% 25.7–31.5% 24.9–32.4%
Høyre 25.0% 24.8% 23.1–26.7% 22.6–27.2% 22.2–27.7% 21.3–28.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.0% 11.7–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.3% 10.4–16.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.5% 10.2–12.9% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.7% 9.0–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.5–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 53 49–57 48–58 47–60 45–61
Høyre 45 45 42–50 41–51 40–52 38–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 20–28 20–29 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–13 9–14 8–14 8–15
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 0.8% 99.1%  
47 3% 98%  
48 5% 96%  
49 4% 91% Last Result
50 10% 87%  
51 10% 77%  
52 10% 66%  
53 10% 57% Median
54 13% 46%  
55 8% 34%  
56 12% 26%  
57 6% 14%  
58 5% 8%  
59 1.1% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.3%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 96%  
42 5% 91%  
43 17% 86%  
44 9% 69%  
45 15% 61% Last Result, Median
46 9% 46%  
47 6% 37%  
48 15% 31%  
49 6% 16%  
50 4% 10%  
51 2% 6%  
52 1.5% 3%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.5% 99.4%  
20 4% 98%  
21 6% 94%  
22 14% 88%  
23 12% 74%  
24 13% 62% Median
25 21% 49%  
26 10% 28%  
27 9% 18% Last Result
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.1%  
18 11% 96%  
19 10% 85% Last Result
20 16% 75%  
21 13% 59% Median
22 20% 46%  
23 11% 27%  
24 7% 15%  
25 6% 8%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 6% 96%  
10 26% 91%  
11 28% 65% Last Result, Median
12 17% 36%  
13 14% 20%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.5% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 49% 99.7%  
3 2% 51% Median
4 3% 48%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 8% 46%  
8 21% 38% Last Result
9 13% 17%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 60% 91% Median
3 0% 31%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 5% 31%  
8 18% 27%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 33% 98.6%  
2 21% 66% Median
3 31% 45%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0.1% 14%  
7 5% 14%  
8 7% 9% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 39% 99.6% Last Result
2 43% 61% Median
3 7% 18%  
4 0.1% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.2% 11%  
7 4% 11%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 98 100% 93–104 92–105 90–106 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 92 96% 85–97 85–98 84–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 90 94% 85–96 84–97 82–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 83% 83–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 77% 83–93 81–94 79–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 59% 80–91 78–92 77–92 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 79 10% 74–84 73–86 72–87 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 80 17% 74–86 73–86 72–87 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 77 4% 72–84 71–84 70–85 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 3% 72–82 70–83 69–85 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 74 0.3% 70–81 68–82 67–83 64–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0.1% 69–79 67–81 67–82 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 71 0% 65–76 64–77 63–79 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 65–74 63–76 62–78 60–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 60–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 53 0% 48–59 47–60 46–60 44–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 23–34 23–36 22–37 21–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.6%  
89 0.4% 99.4%  
90 2% 98.9%  
91 1.3% 97%  
92 4% 96%  
93 3% 92%  
94 6% 90%  
95 11% 84% Median
96 7% 73%  
97 10% 66%  
98 7% 57%  
99 4% 50%  
100 12% 46%  
101 5% 34%  
102 8% 29%  
103 6% 21%  
104 7% 16%  
105 5% 8%  
106 2% 4%  
107 1.0% 2% Last Result
108 0.4% 0.7%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.8% 99.5%  
84 3% 98.7%  
85 7% 96% Majority
86 4% 89%  
87 9% 85%  
88 6% 76%  
89 6% 71% Median
90 6% 64%  
91 7% 58%  
92 7% 51%  
93 7% 44%  
94 9% 38%  
95 8% 29%  
96 9% 21%  
97 4% 12%  
98 4% 8%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.1%  
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 1.1% 99.5%  
82 0.9% 98%  
83 1.4% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 5% 94% Majority
86 7% 89%  
87 6% 82%  
88 9% 76% Last Result
89 5% 67% Median
90 12% 62%  
91 9% 49%  
92 8% 41%  
93 13% 33%  
94 5% 20%  
95 5% 15%  
96 4% 10%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.0%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
81 0.6% 98.6%  
82 3% 98%  
83 7% 95%  
84 5% 89%  
85 11% 83% Majority
86 4% 73%  
87 8% 68% Median
88 7% 61%  
89 4% 53%  
90 9% 49%  
91 4% 40%  
92 6% 35%  
93 9% 29%  
94 7% 20%  
95 6% 14%  
96 4% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 1.1% 99.3%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 1.2% 97% Last Result
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 95%  
83 8% 91%  
84 6% 83%  
85 9% 77% Majority
86 8% 68%  
87 7% 60% Median
88 11% 53%  
89 10% 43%  
90 8% 32%  
91 5% 24%  
92 6% 19%  
93 6% 13%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 1.4% 99.3%  
77 1.3% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95% Last Result
80 4% 93%  
81 6% 89%  
82 7% 82%  
83 11% 75%  
84 5% 64%  
85 7% 59% Median, Majority
86 11% 52%  
87 10% 41%  
88 9% 31%  
89 5% 21%  
90 4% 16%  
91 6% 12%  
92 4% 6%  
93 0.3% 2%  
94 0.6% 2%  
95 0.3% 1.1%  
96 0.5% 0.7%  
97 0.3% 0.3%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 1.3% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 5% 89%  
76 11% 85%  
77 8% 73% Last Result
78 8% 66% Median
79 10% 58%  
80 11% 47%  
81 5% 36%  
82 10% 31%  
83 6% 21%  
84 6% 15%  
85 3% 10% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.8% 1.4%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.4%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 6% 93%  
75 7% 86%  
76 9% 80% Median
77 6% 71%  
78 4% 65%  
79 9% 60%  
80 4% 51%  
81 7% 47%  
82 8% 39%  
83 4% 32%  
84 11% 27%  
85 5% 17% Majority
86 7% 11%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 0.7% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 9% 88%  
74 8% 79% Median
75 9% 71%  
76 7% 62%  
77 7% 56%  
78 7% 49%  
79 6% 42%  
80 6% 36%  
81 6% 29%  
82 9% 23%  
83 4% 15%  
84 7% 11%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 0.8% 1.3%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.3%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 94%  
72 5% 90%  
73 5% 85%  
74 9% 81%  
75 11% 71%  
76 6% 60% Last Result, Median
77 4% 54%  
78 13% 50%  
79 10% 37%  
80 6% 27%  
81 6% 21%  
82 8% 15%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.3%  
66 0.8% 99.0%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 3% 94%  
70 4% 91%  
71 11% 86%  
72 8% 76% Median
73 7% 68%  
74 13% 61%  
75 9% 48%  
76 6% 39%  
77 8% 33%  
78 3% 25%  
79 7% 22%  
80 4% 15% Last Result
81 5% 11%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 1.1% 1.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 1.2% 98.8%  
67 3% 98%  
68 3% 94% Last Result
69 3% 92%  
70 7% 89%  
71 9% 82%  
72 9% 73%  
73 10% 64%  
74 7% 54% Median
75 5% 47%  
76 10% 41%  
77 10% 32%  
78 8% 22%  
79 5% 14%  
80 3% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.0% 99.3% Last Result
63 2% 98%  
64 5% 96%  
65 7% 92%  
66 6% 84%  
67 8% 79%  
68 5% 71% Median
69 12% 66%  
70 4% 54%  
71 7% 50%  
72 10% 43%  
73 7% 34%  
74 11% 27%  
75 6% 16%  
76 3% 10%  
77 4% 8%  
78 1.3% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.1%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 0.7% 99.1%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 3% 94%  
65 8% 91%  
66 6% 83%  
67 7% 77%  
68 6% 70%  
69 10% 64% Median
70 7% 54%  
71 11% 47%  
72 9% 36% Last Result
73 12% 27%  
74 6% 15%  
75 3% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.2% 4%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.3% 1.5%  
80 1.2% 1.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 7% 91% Last Result
61 8% 85%  
62 7% 76%  
63 9% 69%  
64 13% 61% Median
65 11% 48%  
66 13% 37%  
67 7% 24%  
68 8% 17%  
69 3% 9%  
70 2% 6%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.6%  
45 0.7% 99.2%  
46 1.4% 98%  
47 5% 97%  
48 5% 93%  
49 6% 87%  
50 7% 81% Median
51 9% 75%  
52 11% 66%  
53 8% 55%  
54 9% 47%  
55 9% 38%  
56 5% 28%  
57 7% 23%  
58 4% 16%  
59 6% 12%  
60 4% 6%  
61 0.8% 2% Last Result
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 1.3% 99.6%  
22 2% 98%  
23 7% 96%  
24 4% 90%  
25 6% 85%  
26 10% 79% Median
27 10% 69%  
28 6% 59%  
29 10% 53%  
30 6% 43%  
31 8% 37%  
32 11% 29%  
33 6% 18%  
34 4% 12%  
35 2% 7% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 1.4% 3%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations