Opinion Poll by Norstat, 20–26 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.5% 25.7–29.4% 25.1–30.0% 24.7–30.5% 23.8–31.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.5% 22.7–26.3% 22.2–26.9% 21.8–27.3% 21.0–28.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.2–14.9% 10.9–15.3% 10.3–16.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.5% 11.2–14.0% 10.8–14.4% 10.5–14.8% 9.9–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 45–55 44–56 42–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–49 41–50 40–51 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 20–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 23 20–26 19–26 19–27 18–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–17
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.5%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 3% 97% Last Result
46 9% 94%  
47 7% 85%  
48 11% 77%  
49 11% 66%  
50 14% 54% Median
51 14% 40%  
52 9% 26%  
53 3% 17%  
54 4% 14%  
55 6% 10%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 1.2%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.0% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 13% 88%  
43 16% 75%  
44 8% 59%  
45 16% 50% Median
46 13% 34%  
47 6% 21%  
48 4% 16%  
49 4% 12% Last Result
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 1.0%  
53 0.1% 0.5%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.7%  
19 0.9% 99.2%  
20 5% 98%  
21 14% 93%  
22 14% 79%  
23 15% 65%  
24 19% 50% Median
25 9% 32%  
26 13% 23%  
27 6% 9% Last Result
28 2% 3%  
29 1.0% 1.3%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.6% Last Result
20 8% 93%  
21 20% 86%  
22 13% 66%  
23 17% 54% Median
24 9% 37%  
25 16% 27%  
26 7% 11%  
27 2% 4%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.8%  
10 7% 98.7%  
11 13% 92% Last Result
12 29% 79%  
13 16% 50% Median
14 18% 34%  
15 9% 16%  
16 4% 7%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100% Last Result
2 34% 99.2%  
3 0% 66%  
4 0% 66%  
5 0% 66%  
6 0% 66%  
7 8% 66%  
8 29% 58% Median
9 21% 29%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100% Last Result
2 44% 81% Median
3 10% 38%  
4 1.0% 27%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 6% 26%  
8 16% 20%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 13% 98.8%  
2 13% 86%  
3 55% 73% Median
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0.1% 18%  
7 4% 18%  
8 9% 13% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 10% 99.7%  
2 83% 90% Median
3 0.4% 7%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 3% 6%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 97–107 96–108 94–110 92–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 91% 85–95 83–96 82–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 77% 81–93 80–93 80–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 63% 81–91 80–93 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 37% 78–90 78–90 77–91 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 83 37% 78–88 76–89 75–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 13% 75–85 74–87 73–87 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 9% 74–84 73–86 72–87 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 1.3% 71–81 70–82 69–83 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.4% 69–80 68–81 67–82 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 69–79 68–79 67–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 66–75 65–77 64–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 67 0% 62–72 61–73 59–75 57–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 60–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–62 52–64 52–65 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 51–60 50–62 49–63 47–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 25–33 24–35 23–35 23–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.5% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.3%  
94 2% 98.7%  
95 2% 97%  
96 3% 95%  
97 3% 92%  
98 6% 88%  
99 7% 82%  
100 14% 75%  
101 8% 60%  
102 14% 53% Median
103 4% 39%  
104 9% 34%  
105 8% 26%  
106 5% 17%  
107 4% 13% Last Result
108 5% 9%  
109 1.1% 4%  
110 1.2% 3%  
111 1.3% 2%  
112 0.3% 0.5%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 1.4% 99.1% Last Result
82 0.8% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 4% 95%  
85 3% 91% Majority
86 10% 88%  
87 7% 77%  
88 5% 71%  
89 6% 66%  
90 7% 60%  
91 10% 52% Median
92 22% 43%  
93 6% 21%  
94 4% 15%  
95 6% 11%  
96 2% 5%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.4%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 2% 99.3%  
80 6% 98%  
81 3% 92%  
82 4% 89%  
83 3% 85%  
84 5% 82%  
85 5% 77% Majority
86 13% 72% Median
87 15% 59%  
88 8% 43% Last Result
89 7% 36%  
90 8% 29%  
91 3% 21%  
92 7% 18%  
93 8% 11%  
94 1.5% 3%  
95 0.6% 1.5%  
96 0.4% 0.9%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.5%  
78 0.6% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96% Last Result
81 5% 94%  
82 4% 89%  
83 6% 85%  
84 16% 80%  
85 8% 63% Majority
86 7% 56%  
87 7% 49%  
88 7% 42%  
89 13% 35% Median
90 11% 22%  
91 3% 12%  
92 3% 9%  
93 4% 6%  
94 0.6% 3%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 1.2% 99.0%  
77 2% 98%  
78 8% 96%  
79 6% 88%  
80 5% 82% Last Result
81 6% 77%  
82 7% 71%  
83 13% 64% Median
84 14% 51%  
85 6% 37% Majority
86 7% 32%  
87 5% 25%  
88 4% 19%  
89 5% 15%  
90 7% 10%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.4%  
93 0.6% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.7%  
74 1.3% 99.4%  
75 0.6% 98%  
76 4% 97%  
77 3% 94%  
78 3% 91%  
79 11% 88%  
80 13% 78%  
81 7% 65% Median
82 7% 58%  
83 7% 51%  
84 8% 44%  
85 16% 37% Majority
86 6% 20%  
87 4% 15%  
88 5% 11%  
89 2% 6% Last Result
90 2% 4%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 1.0% 99.2%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 5% 95%  
76 10% 90%  
77 6% 80%  
78 6% 73%  
79 10% 67% Last Result
80 5% 57%  
81 16% 52% Median
82 13% 36%  
83 5% 23%  
84 5% 18%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 2% 9%  
87 4% 7%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.7% 1.2%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.3%  
72 2% 98.6%  
73 2% 97%  
74 6% 95%  
75 4% 89%  
76 6% 85%  
77 22% 79%  
78 10% 57%  
79 7% 48% Median
80 6% 40%  
81 5% 34%  
82 7% 29%  
83 10% 23%  
84 3% 12%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 0.8% 3%  
88 1.4% 2% Last Result
89 0.4% 0.9%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 0.4% 99.1%  
69 1.4% 98.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 94%  
72 4% 89%  
73 9% 85%  
74 24% 76%  
75 10% 52%  
76 8% 42% Median
77 8% 34%  
78 4% 26%  
79 4% 22%  
80 4% 18% Last Result
81 8% 14%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.3% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.1%  
67 1.5% 98.6%  
68 6% 97%  
69 4% 91%  
70 6% 87%  
71 7% 81%  
72 4% 74%  
73 11% 70% Median
74 13% 59%  
75 6% 47%  
76 10% 41%  
77 9% 30% Last Result
78 5% 21%  
79 4% 16%  
80 3% 12%  
81 6% 9%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.3%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.5%  
66 0.5% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 6% 94%  
70 4% 87%  
71 8% 83%  
72 24% 75% Last Result
73 11% 51%  
74 6% 39% Median
75 9% 33%  
76 4% 24%  
77 4% 20%  
78 4% 16%  
79 8% 12%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.2% 1.0%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 2% 98.7%  
65 2% 97%  
66 9% 95%  
67 7% 86%  
68 9% 79%  
69 7% 70%  
70 10% 62%  
71 6% 52% Median
72 11% 46%  
73 12% 35%  
74 7% 24%  
75 7% 17%  
76 3% 10% Last Result
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 1.3% 99.5%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 1.1% 97%  
61 5% 96%  
62 4% 91% Last Result
63 5% 87%  
64 8% 83%  
65 9% 74%  
66 4% 66%  
67 14% 61%  
68 8% 47% Median
69 14% 40%  
70 7% 25%  
71 6% 18%  
72 3% 12%  
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 1.3%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 1.3% 99.6%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 5% 93%  
64 12% 88%  
65 9% 77%  
66 10% 68%  
67 12% 58%  
68 6% 46% Last Result, Median
69 11% 39%  
70 10% 28%  
71 7% 19%  
72 5% 12%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.5% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.8%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.5%  
51 1.1% 99.0%  
52 3% 98%  
53 5% 94%  
54 7% 89%  
55 12% 82%  
56 11% 71%  
57 14% 59%  
58 13% 45% Median
59 8% 31%  
60 7% 23% Last Result
61 5% 16%  
62 2% 11%  
63 3% 9%  
64 3% 7%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.5%  
49 3% 98.8%  
50 2% 96%  
51 9% 94%  
52 4% 85%  
53 10% 80%  
54 9% 71%  
55 14% 62% Median
56 12% 48%  
57 9% 36%  
58 4% 27%  
59 9% 23%  
60 6% 14%  
61 3% 8% Last Result
62 1.5% 5%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.8% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 6% 97%  
25 11% 91%  
26 12% 80%  
27 8% 68%  
28 14% 60% Median
29 7% 46%  
30 16% 39%  
31 7% 23%  
32 4% 16%  
33 5% 13%  
34 2% 8%  
35 3% 5% Last Result
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.4% 1.2%  
38 0.4% 0.7%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations