Opinion Poll by Norstat, 28 August–2 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.5–28.7% 23.9–29.3% 23.4–29.8% 22.5–30.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.2% 24.2–28.4% 23.6–29.0% 23.1–29.6% 22.2–30.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.9% 12.3–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.5–16.6% 10.8–17.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 9.8–12.9% 9.5–13.4% 9.1–13.8% 8.5–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.0–8.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.0–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 2.0–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.3% 1.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 44–52 43–53 42–55 40–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 44–52 43–54 42–55 40–58
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 22–29 22–30 21–31 19–32
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–23 17–24 16–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 8–14 8–15 7–16
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 0–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 0–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 0.8% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 4% 97%  
44 3% 93%  
45 11% 90% Last Result
46 8% 79%  
47 12% 71%  
48 9% 59%  
49 16% 50% Median
50 12% 35%  
51 7% 22%  
52 7% 16%  
53 4% 9%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.3%  
42 3% 98.5%  
43 3% 96%  
44 6% 93%  
45 10% 86%  
46 11% 76%  
47 13% 65%  
48 17% 52% Median
49 9% 35% Last Result
50 5% 25%  
51 7% 20%  
52 4% 13%  
53 2% 9%  
54 2% 6%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.9%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.8%  
20 1.0% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 7% 96%  
23 12% 89%  
24 13% 77%  
25 15% 65%  
26 18% 50% Median
27 12% 32% Last Result
28 9% 20%  
29 5% 11%  
30 3% 6%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.8%  
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 6% 97%  
18 7% 91%  
19 18% 83% Last Result
20 11% 65%  
21 21% 54% Median
22 16% 33%  
23 8% 17%  
24 6% 10%  
25 2% 4%  
26 1.0% 1.5%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 0.3% 99.5%  
8 5% 99.3%  
9 14% 94%  
10 17% 80%  
11 22% 63% Last Result, Median
12 18% 41%  
13 14% 23%  
14 5% 9%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100% Last Result
2 23% 98.8%  
3 0% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0% 76%  
7 8% 76%  
8 26% 68% Median
9 24% 42%  
10 11% 17%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.3% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 18% 98%  
2 10% 80%  
3 41% 70% Median
4 0% 29%  
5 0% 29%  
6 0% 29%  
7 6% 29%  
8 17% 23% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 6% 99.7%  
2 73% 94% Median
3 1.5% 21%  
4 0.1% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0% 20%  
7 4% 20%  
8 13% 16% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 64% 95% Last Result, Median
2 25% 31%  
3 2% 6%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0.1% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 97–107 95–108 93–109 91–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 88 84% 83–93 82–95 80–97 77–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 73% 82–92 80–93 79–95 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 48% 79–91 79–92 78–94 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 16% 76–86 75–89 74–90 71–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 82 27% 77–87 76–89 74–90 72–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 9% 75–84 74–87 72–88 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 81 16% 76–86 74–87 72–88 70–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 3% 72–82 71–83 69–85 67–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.3% 69–80 68–81 67–82 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.3% 69–78 67–80 66–81 64–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.1% 67–78 66–79 65–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 64–73 63–75 61–77 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 67 0% 62–72 61–74 60–76 57–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 54–64 53–65 52–67 50–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–60 49–62 47–63 46–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 27 0% 23–32 22–34 21–35 20–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 1.0% 99.6%  
92 0.9% 98.6%  
93 2% 98%  
94 1.0% 96%  
95 2% 95%  
96 3% 93%  
97 6% 90%  
98 5% 84%  
99 12% 79%  
100 6% 67%  
101 8% 60% Median
102 13% 52%  
103 13% 39%  
104 7% 26%  
105 5% 19%  
106 4% 15%  
107 4% 10% Last Result
108 2% 6%  
109 1.3% 4%  
110 1.1% 2%  
111 0.8% 1.3%  
112 0.3% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 0.8% 99.0%  
80 0.8% 98%  
81 2% 97% Last Result
82 2% 96%  
83 6% 94%  
84 4% 88%  
85 6% 84% Majority
86 12% 78%  
87 7% 65%  
88 15% 58%  
89 10% 43% Median
90 7% 33%  
91 7% 26%  
92 5% 19%  
93 5% 14%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 0.4% 99.1%  
78 1.0% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96% Last Result
81 2% 94%  
82 8% 92%  
83 5% 85%  
84 7% 80%  
85 12% 73% Majority
86 7% 61%  
87 14% 53%  
88 12% 39% Median
89 5% 27%  
90 8% 23%  
91 3% 15%  
92 6% 12%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.3% 4%  
95 0.8% 3%  
96 1.3% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.4%  
77 1.2% 98.7%  
78 2% 98%  
79 6% 95%  
80 5% 90%  
81 6% 85%  
82 11% 79%  
83 8% 68%  
84 13% 60% Median
85 8% 48% Majority
86 6% 39%  
87 4% 33%  
88 4% 29% Last Result
89 8% 25%  
90 4% 17%  
91 4% 13%  
92 5% 9%  
93 1.2% 4%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.2%  
73 0.9% 98.8%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 7% 95%  
77 7% 88%  
78 7% 81%  
79 11% 74%  
80 6% 62% Last Result
81 16% 56% Median
82 9% 40%  
83 8% 32%  
84 8% 24%  
85 4% 16% Majority
86 3% 12%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 7%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.3% 99.5%  
73 1.4% 99.3%  
74 0.9% 98%  
75 1.3% 97%  
76 2% 96%  
77 6% 93%  
78 3% 88%  
79 8% 85%  
80 5% 77%  
81 12% 72% Median
82 14% 60%  
83 7% 46%  
84 12% 39%  
85 7% 27% Majority
86 5% 20%  
87 8% 15%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 6% Last Result
90 2% 4%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 99.0%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 7% 92%  
76 8% 85%  
77 9% 78%  
78 10% 69%  
79 6% 59% Last Result
80 20% 53% Median
81 5% 33%  
82 9% 28%  
83 5% 19%  
84 5% 14%  
85 2% 9% Majority
86 1.1% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 1.1% 99.4%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 1.1% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 4% 95%  
76 5% 91%  
77 5% 86%  
78 7% 81%  
79 7% 74%  
80 10% 67% Median
81 15% 56%  
82 7% 41%  
83 12% 34%  
84 6% 22%  
85 4% 16% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4% Last Result
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.9%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.0% 99.3%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 1.2% 97%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 9% 89%  
74 5% 80%  
75 8% 75%  
76 12% 67%  
77 12% 54% Median
78 12% 42%  
79 7% 30%  
80 7% 23% Last Result
81 6% 16%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 7%  
84 0.9% 4%  
85 1.2% 3% Majority
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.2%  
88 0.2% 0.9%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 1.2% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 6% 91%  
70 7% 85%  
71 11% 78%  
72 13% 67%  
73 11% 54% Median
74 4% 43%  
75 6% 40%  
76 3% 33%  
77 7% 30% Last Result
78 2% 22%  
79 7% 20%  
80 5% 13%  
81 5% 8%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 1.5%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.9% 99.3%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 5% 92%  
70 5% 87%  
71 11% 82%  
72 6% 72% Last Result
73 10% 66%  
74 12% 55%  
75 12% 44% Median
76 12% 31%  
77 5% 19%  
78 5% 14%  
79 3% 9%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 1.0% 99.3%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 7% 95%  
68 6% 88%  
69 7% 82%  
70 12% 74%  
71 12% 63%  
72 10% 51% Median
73 5% 41%  
74 5% 35%  
75 4% 30%  
76 6% 26% Last Result
77 4% 20%  
78 8% 16%  
79 4% 9%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 1.1% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 8% 93%  
65 7% 85%  
66 6% 77%  
67 13% 71%  
68 14% 59% Last Result
69 11% 45% Median
70 8% 33%  
71 8% 26%  
72 5% 17%  
73 3% 12%  
74 2% 9%  
75 3% 7%  
76 1.1% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.8% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.8% 99.4%  
59 1.1% 98.6%  
60 1.3% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 4% 94% Last Result
63 4% 89%  
64 5% 85%  
65 7% 81%  
66 13% 74%  
67 13% 61%  
68 8% 47% Median
69 6% 39%  
70 12% 33%  
71 5% 21%  
72 6% 16%  
73 3% 9%  
74 2% 7%  
75 0.9% 5%  
76 1.5% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.9% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 1.4% 98.9%  
53 3% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 4% 89%  
56 9% 85%  
57 11% 76%  
58 15% 66%  
59 10% 51% Median
60 8% 41% Last Result
61 13% 33%  
62 6% 20%  
63 4% 15%  
64 5% 11%  
65 2% 6%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 1.3%  
69 0.7% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 1.1% 99.6%  
47 1.0% 98%  
48 1.3% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 4% 90%  
52 9% 86%  
53 7% 76%  
54 14% 69% Median
55 10% 56%  
56 9% 45%  
57 9% 37%  
58 6% 28%  
59 2% 22%  
60 10% 19%  
61 3% 9% Last Result
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.4% 99.6%  
21 2% 98%  
22 4% 97%  
23 6% 92%  
24 13% 87%  
25 6% 74%  
26 12% 68% Median
27 8% 56%  
28 7% 48%  
29 7% 40%  
30 6% 33%  
31 9% 27%  
32 8% 18%  
33 4% 10%  
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 4% Last Result
36 0.5% 2%  
37 0.4% 1.5%  
38 0.2% 1.1%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations