Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 4–5 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.6% 22.7–26.7% 22.2–27.3% 21.7–27.8% 20.8–28.8%
Høyre 25.0% 24.1% 22.2–26.2% 21.7–26.7% 21.2–27.2% 20.3–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 17.6% 15.9–19.4% 15.4–19.9% 15.0–20.4% 14.3–21.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 9.8–12.7% 9.4–13.2% 9.1–13.6% 8.5–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.1% 5.0–9.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.3% 3.0–6.9%
Venstre 4.4% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.1% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.3–3.3% 1.1–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–48 40–48 39–49 38–51
Høyre 45 42 39–46 38–47 36–48 35–51
Fremskrittspartiet 27 30 28–34 28–37 27–38 25–38
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 17–24 16–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 10–16 8–17
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 1–9 1–10 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 99.6%  
39 1.4% 98.9%  
40 3% 97%  
41 7% 94%  
42 15% 87%  
43 17% 72%  
44 13% 54% Median
45 13% 41%  
46 9% 29%  
47 7% 20%  
48 10% 13%  
49 1.1% 3% Last Result
50 0.5% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 2% 97%  
38 5% 95%  
39 5% 90%  
40 4% 86%  
41 18% 82%  
42 20% 64% Median
43 10% 44%  
44 8% 34%  
45 11% 26% Last Result
46 6% 15%  
47 4% 9%  
48 3% 5%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 98.7%  
27 2% 98% Last Result
28 17% 95%  
29 19% 79%  
30 15% 59% Median
31 14% 45%  
32 7% 31%  
33 9% 24%  
34 6% 16%  
35 3% 10%  
36 2% 7%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.8%  
16 3% 99.2%  
17 13% 96%  
18 14% 83%  
19 16% 69% Last Result
20 16% 53% Median
21 21% 36%  
22 5% 15%  
23 3% 10%  
24 5% 7%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.2%  
10 12% 98%  
11 11% 86% Last Result
12 25% 75% Median
13 29% 49%  
14 14% 20%  
15 4% 7%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.1% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 27% 99.8%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 10% 73%  
8 23% 62% Median
9 22% 40%  
10 13% 18%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.8% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 25% 99.8%  
3 3% 75%  
4 0.5% 72%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0% 71%  
7 21% 71%  
8 20% 51% Last Result, Median
9 19% 30%  
10 10% 12%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 5% 99.8%  
2 3% 95%  
3 40% 91%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 0% 51%  
7 16% 51% Median
8 18% 35% Last Result
9 14% 17%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 59% 63% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 99–109 99–111 98–112 97–114
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 87 67% 80–90 79–92 79–93 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 64% 79–90 79–91 78–92 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 83 36% 79–90 78–90 77–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 82 33% 79–89 77–90 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 82 22% 78–89 76–89 75–90 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 14% 73–85 71–85 71–86 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 1.2% 72–81 72–82 70–83 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.9% 72–81 71–81 70–82 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.4% 69–77 68–80 67–81 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 70 0% 65–76 64–76 63–78 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 64–75 64–76 62–77 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–69 56–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–61 51–61 49–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 55 0% 49–59 47–61 46–61 43–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 26–36 24–38 23–39 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.9% 99.5%  
98 2% 98.6%  
99 8% 96%  
100 2% 88%  
101 10% 86%  
102 3% 77%  
103 12% 74%  
104 7% 62%  
105 6% 55%  
106 9% 48%  
107 10% 40% Last Result, Median
108 9% 30%  
109 14% 20%  
110 1.4% 7%  
111 3% 5%  
112 0.3% 3%  
113 1.4% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.9%  
115 0.1% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.6% 99.1%  
79 8% 98%  
80 3% 90%  
81 7% 87%  
82 2% 80%  
83 4% 78%  
84 7% 73%  
85 5% 67% Majority
86 7% 62%  
87 17% 55%  
88 10% 39% Median
89 16% 29% Last Result
90 5% 13%  
91 3% 9%  
92 0.9% 6%  
93 3% 5%  
94 0.6% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.2%  
78 3% 98.7%  
79 8% 96%  
80 8% 88%  
81 2% 80%  
82 3% 78%  
83 5% 76%  
84 7% 71%  
85 8% 64% Majority
86 12% 56%  
87 11% 44% Median
88 16% 33% Last Result
89 4% 16%  
90 6% 12%  
91 0.9% 6%  
92 3% 5%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.9% 99.2%  
77 3% 98%  
78 0.9% 95%  
79 6% 94%  
80 4% 88%  
81 16% 84% Last Result
82 11% 67%  
83 12% 56%  
84 8% 44%  
85 7% 36% Median, Majority
86 5% 29%  
87 3% 24%  
88 2% 22%  
89 8% 20%  
90 8% 12%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.5% 1.3%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.3%  
76 3% 98.7%  
77 0.9% 95%  
78 3% 94%  
79 5% 91%  
80 16% 87% Last Result
81 10% 71%  
82 17% 61%  
83 7% 45%  
84 5% 38% Median
85 7% 33% Majority
86 4% 27%  
87 2% 22%  
88 7% 20%  
89 3% 13%  
90 8% 10%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 0.6% 99.3%  
75 1.4% 98.7%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 5% 90%  
79 9% 85%  
80 7% 77%  
81 7% 70%  
82 19% 64%  
83 15% 44%  
84 8% 30% Median
85 4% 22% Majority
86 3% 18%  
87 2% 14%  
88 2% 13% Last Result
89 7% 11%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.3% 0.9%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 7% 99.6%  
72 0.6% 93%  
73 2% 92%  
74 3% 90%  
75 4% 87%  
76 4% 83%  
77 16% 80%  
78 3% 64%  
79 6% 61%  
80 3% 55% Last Result, Median
81 10% 52%  
82 8% 41%  
83 10% 33%  
84 10% 24%  
85 10% 14% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.3% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.4%  
70 2% 99.2%  
71 2% 97%  
72 8% 95%  
73 5% 88%  
74 12% 83%  
75 10% 71%  
76 7% 61%  
77 11% 54% Median
78 3% 43%  
79 17% 40%  
80 8% 24% Last Result
81 8% 15%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 1.2% 99.2%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 8% 93%  
73 11% 85%  
74 10% 74%  
75 7% 64%  
76 6% 56% Median
77 9% 50%  
78 16% 41%  
79 6% 24% Last Result
80 4% 18%  
81 9% 14%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 1.1% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 9% 93%  
70 15% 84%  
71 4% 70%  
72 10% 66% Last Result, Median
73 11% 56%  
74 7% 45%  
75 5% 37%  
76 19% 32%  
77 4% 14%  
78 2% 10%  
79 1.1% 7%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.4% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.8% 1.2%  
84 0% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.2%  
62 0.6% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 6% 93%  
66 3% 87%  
67 9% 84%  
68 6% 75%  
69 14% 69%  
70 18% 56%  
71 7% 37%  
72 8% 30% Median
73 5% 22%  
74 4% 17%  
75 2% 13%  
76 8% 11%  
77 0.5% 3% Last Result
78 2% 3%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.5% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.1%  
62 3% 98.8%  
63 1.2% 96%  
64 7% 95%  
65 3% 89%  
66 5% 85%  
67 6% 80%  
68 16% 74%  
69 18% 58%  
70 10% 41%  
71 4% 31% Median
72 9% 26%  
73 4% 18%  
74 2% 14%  
75 3% 12%  
76 6% 9% Last Result
77 2% 3%  
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.5%  
57 0.9% 99.3%  
58 1.5% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 14% 94%  
61 11% 80%  
62 7% 70%  
63 8% 62%  
64 6% 54% Median
65 20% 48%  
66 7% 28%  
67 5% 21%  
68 9% 16% Last Result
69 5% 7%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.7%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.5%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 11% 94%  
54 11% 83%  
55 6% 72%  
56 11% 66% Median
57 25% 56%  
58 9% 31%  
59 5% 22%  
60 5% 17% Last Result
61 9% 11%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.5%  
45 1.3% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 1.1% 93%  
49 3% 92%  
50 4% 89%  
51 13% 85%  
52 6% 72%  
53 3% 66%  
54 12% 64%  
55 6% 52%  
56 6% 46%  
57 14% 40% Median
58 11% 26%  
59 6% 15%  
60 4% 10%  
61 4% 6% Last Result
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.0%  
24 2% 96%  
25 1.0% 94%  
26 4% 93%  
27 4% 89%  
28 4% 85%  
29 1.4% 81%  
30 10% 80%  
31 12% 70%  
32 8% 58%  
33 18% 50%  
34 9% 31%  
35 11% 23% Last Result, Median
36 5% 11%  
37 1.2% 6%  
38 3% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations