Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 6 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.0% 26.9–31.3% 26.3–31.9% 25.8–32.5% 24.8–33.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 22.9–27.0% 22.3–27.6% 21.8–28.2% 20.9–29.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.5% 10.1–13.2% 9.7–13.7% 9.4–14.1% 8.8–14.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.4% 9.1–12.0% 8.7–12.5% 8.4–12.9% 7.8–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.2% 4.9–8.6% 4.5–9.3%
Rødt 2.4% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.3–7.2% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.2–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 49–57 48–58 47–59 45–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–50 40–52 38–54
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 18–24 17–25 16–27
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 16–22 15–23 14–23 13–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–15 9–15 8–17
Rødt 1 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
46 1.4% 99.0%  
47 2% 98%  
48 4% 96%  
49 6% 92%  
50 7% 86%  
51 11% 78%  
52 13% 67%  
53 8% 55% Median
54 16% 47%  
55 11% 31%  
56 7% 21%  
57 7% 14%  
58 4% 8%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.5%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 4% 97%  
42 7% 93%  
43 8% 86%  
44 7% 79%  
45 26% 71% Median
46 13% 45%  
47 14% 32%  
48 7% 18%  
49 3% 11% Last Result
50 3% 8%  
51 1.4% 5%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 1.5%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.6% 99.7%  
17 3% 99.1%  
18 8% 96%  
19 18% 88% Last Result
20 26% 70% Median
21 14% 43%  
22 11% 29%  
23 8% 18%  
24 5% 9%  
25 3% 5%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.7%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.4%  
15 4% 97%  
16 8% 93%  
17 8% 85%  
18 22% 77%  
19 20% 55% Median
20 14% 34%  
21 9% 21%  
22 7% 12%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 1.0% 99.8%  
9 6% 98.7%  
10 16% 93%  
11 17% 78% Last Result
12 31% 60% Median
13 14% 29%  
14 10% 15%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 10% 97%  
9 18% 87%  
10 21% 69% Median
11 24% 48%  
12 18% 24%  
13 4% 6%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 14% 99.5%  
2 4% 85%  
3 42% 81% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0.1% 38%  
7 9% 38%  
8 22% 29% Last Result
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 72% 98% Median
3 2% 25%  
4 0.1% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0% 23%  
7 8% 23%  
8 10% 15% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 69% 81% Last Result, Median
2 11% 12%  
3 0.3% 1.3%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0.7% 1.0%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 97–105 95–107 93–108 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 90% 85–94 83–95 82–96 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 85% 84–93 82–94 81–95 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 37% 79–88 78–89 76–90 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 81 15% 76–85 75–87 74–88 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 80 9% 75–84 74–86 73–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 6% 75–83 73–85 72–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 4% 73–82 72–84 71–85 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 1.4% 71–80 69–81 68–83 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0.1% 67–76 66–78 64–79 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0% 68–77 66–78 65–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–76 65–77 63–78 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 69 0% 64–72 62–74 61–76 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–70 61–72 60–73 58–75
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 61 0% 55–66 55–68 53–69 51–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–64 50–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 24–34 23–35 23–36 20–38

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.8% 99.4%  
93 2% 98.6%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 95%  
96 2% 93%  
97 15% 91% Median
98 7% 76%  
99 10% 69%  
100 12% 59%  
101 9% 47%  
102 12% 38%  
103 10% 27%  
104 5% 16%  
105 5% 11%  
106 1.4% 7%  
107 2% 5% Last Result
108 2% 3%  
109 0.6% 1.1%  
110 0.2% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.8% 99.4%  
81 0.9% 98.5% Last Result
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 94%  
85 5% 90% Majority
86 11% 86%  
87 9% 75%  
88 11% 66% Median
89 7% 55%  
90 11% 47%  
91 8% 37%  
92 11% 29%  
93 5% 17%  
94 3% 12%  
95 5% 9%  
96 1.4% 4%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.5% 99.4%  
80 1.1% 98.9% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 95%  
83 3% 93%  
84 6% 90%  
85 10% 85% Majority
86 9% 75%  
87 12% 66% Median
88 8% 54%  
89 8% 47%  
90 8% 39%  
91 16% 31%  
92 4% 15%  
93 2% 12%  
94 5% 9%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.9% 99.7%  
75 1.2% 98.8%  
76 2% 98%  
77 0.8% 96%  
78 2% 95%  
79 5% 93%  
80 9% 88%  
81 10% 80% Median
82 10% 70%  
83 14% 60%  
84 9% 46%  
85 10% 37% Majority
86 6% 28%  
87 6% 22%  
88 6% 16% Last Result
89 6% 10%  
90 1.4% 4%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.4%  
73 1.1% 98.7%  
74 2% 98%  
75 5% 96%  
76 3% 90%  
77 4% 88%  
78 16% 84% Median
79 8% 68%  
80 8% 60%  
81 7% 52%  
82 12% 45%  
83 9% 33%  
84 10% 24%  
85 6% 15% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2% Last Result
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 6% 96%  
75 3% 91%  
76 5% 87%  
77 11% 82% Median
78 8% 71%  
79 11% 62%  
80 7% 52%  
81 11% 44%  
82 9% 33%  
83 10% 24%  
84 5% 14%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.8% 2% Last Result
89 0.8% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 1.0% 99.4%  
72 1.2% 98%  
73 4% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 4% 90%  
76 8% 86%  
77 13% 78%  
78 11% 65% Median
79 11% 54%  
80 15% 43% Last Result
81 7% 27%  
82 6% 20%  
83 6% 14%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.1% 4%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.3% 1.3%  
89 0.7% 1.0%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 3% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 4% 90%  
75 8% 86%  
76 14% 78%  
77 10% 64% Median
78 11% 54%  
79 13% 43% Last Result
80 11% 30%  
81 6% 19%  
82 5% 13%  
83 3% 8%  
84 1.4% 5%  
85 1.4% 4% Majority
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.3% 1.2%  
88 0.7% 0.9%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.0%  
68 1.1% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 5% 91%  
72 8% 85%  
73 14% 78%  
74 12% 64% Median
75 10% 52%  
76 8% 42%  
77 6% 34%  
78 7% 28%  
79 7% 20%  
80 6% 13% Last Result
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.6% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.4% Majority
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 99.3%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 1.5% 97%  
66 5% 96%  
67 3% 91%  
68 5% 88%  
69 14% 83% Median
70 4% 69%  
71 17% 65%  
72 7% 48%  
73 13% 41%  
74 6% 29%  
75 7% 22%  
76 6% 16%  
77 3% 10% Last Result
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.5% 99.5%  
64 1.5% 99.0%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 7% 90%  
69 7% 83%  
70 9% 76%  
71 17% 67%  
72 13% 51% Last Result, Median
73 10% 37%  
74 6% 27%  
75 4% 21%  
76 5% 17%  
77 4% 11%  
78 4% 7%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 1.0% 99.3%  
63 1.1% 98%  
64 1.3% 97%  
65 5% 96%  
66 4% 91%  
67 5% 88%  
68 12% 83% Median
69 7% 71%  
70 15% 64%  
71 9% 50%  
72 13% 41%  
73 6% 28%  
74 7% 22%  
75 5% 15%  
76 4% 10% Last Result
77 2% 6%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.4% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.7% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.8%  
62 2% 97% Last Result
63 2% 94%  
64 5% 93%  
65 5% 88%  
66 10% 83%  
67 12% 72%  
68 9% 61% Median
69 12% 52%  
70 10% 40%  
71 7% 30%  
72 15% 23%  
73 2% 8%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.4% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.8% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.6%  
61 4% 97%  
62 6% 93%  
63 6% 87%  
64 13% 81%  
65 15% 68% Median
66 9% 53%  
67 15% 45%  
68 9% 29% Last Result
69 5% 20%  
70 5% 15%  
71 5% 10%  
72 1.5% 5%  
73 1.2% 4%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.0%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 1.0% 99.4%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 6% 95%  
56 3% 89%  
57 5% 87%  
58 5% 82% Median
59 17% 77%  
60 6% 60%  
61 14% 54% Last Result
62 5% 40%  
63 12% 35%  
64 4% 23%  
65 6% 19%  
66 4% 13%  
67 4% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 1.2% 99.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 97%  
53 6% 93%  
54 5% 88%  
55 7% 82%  
56 11% 75%  
57 15% 65% Median
58 15% 50%  
59 18% 34%  
60 4% 16% Last Result
61 3% 12%  
62 4% 9%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.7%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.5%  
22 1.3% 98.9%  
23 4% 98%  
24 6% 93%  
25 17% 87% Median
26 5% 71%  
27 8% 66%  
28 8% 58%  
29 11% 50%  
30 8% 39%  
31 7% 31%  
32 8% 24%  
33 6% 16%  
34 3% 10%  
35 2% 7% Last Result
36 3% 4%  
37 0.7% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations