Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 6–10 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.0% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.5% 23.8–27.4% 23.4–27.9% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.4–17.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–51 42–52 41–52 40–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–50 42–51 42–52 40–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–14 9–14 8–15
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 4% 97%  
43 10% 93%  
44 15% 83%  
45 9% 68% Last Result
46 14% 59% Median
47 8% 45%  
48 6% 37%  
49 14% 31%  
50 6% 17%  
51 6% 11%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.2%  
55 0.1% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 5% 98%  
43 15% 92%  
44 14% 77%  
45 9% 63%  
46 15% 54% Median
47 9% 40%  
48 9% 31%  
49 8% 21% Last Result
50 5% 14%  
51 4% 9%  
52 3% 5%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.9% 99.6%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 3% 97%  
23 7% 94%  
24 11% 87%  
25 17% 76%  
26 25% 60% Median
27 14% 35% Last Result
28 12% 20%  
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 1.0%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.4%  
16 6% 96%  
17 24% 89%  
18 22% 66% Median
19 18% 44% Last Result
20 11% 26%  
21 8% 15%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 10% 98%  
10 22% 88%  
11 27% 67% Last Result, Median
12 21% 40%  
13 11% 19%  
14 5% 8%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 12% 99.9%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.5% 87%  
7 9% 87%  
8 34% 78% Median
9 25% 44%  
10 14% 19%  
11 3% 5%  
12 1.0% 1.3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 6% 99.9%  
2 5% 94%  
3 41% 89% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0.1% 49%  
7 17% 49%  
8 23% 32% Last Result
9 7% 9%  
10 1.5% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 58% 99.6% Median
3 0.9% 42%  
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.1% 41%  
7 15% 41%  
8 19% 26% Last Result
9 6% 8%  
10 0.9% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 24% 99.9% Last Result
2 37% 76% Median
3 7% 39%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0.1% 31%  
7 19% 31%  
8 10% 12%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 95–105 94–106 93–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 73% 83–92 82–94 80–95 78–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 86 62% 80–89 78–91 78–93 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 47% 79–90 77–91 77–92 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 83 38% 80–89 78–91 76–91 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 82 27% 77–86 75–87 74–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 9% 74–84 74–86 73–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 2% 71–82 70–83 69–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 2% 71–81 71–82 70–83 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.2% 68–79 67–80 66–81 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0% 68–77 67–78 66–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–74 64–76 63–77 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 68 0% 64–74 63–75 61–76 59–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 61–69 60–71 59–72 58–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 52–61 50–62 48–63 47–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 23–33 22–35 21–36 20–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.7%  
92 0.6% 99.4%  
93 3% 98.8%  
94 5% 96%  
95 3% 90% Median
96 5% 87%  
97 3% 82%  
98 13% 79%  
99 7% 66%  
100 8% 59%  
101 11% 51%  
102 8% 40%  
103 7% 32%  
104 14% 26%  
105 4% 12%  
106 3% 8%  
107 1.0% 4% Last Result
108 1.5% 3%  
109 0.9% 2%  
110 0.4% 0.8%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.5%  
79 1.1% 99.1%  
80 1.0% 98%  
81 1.3% 97% Last Result
82 6% 96%  
83 12% 90%  
84 6% 78%  
85 8% 73% Median, Majority
86 9% 64%  
87 7% 55%  
88 14% 49%  
89 10% 34%  
90 7% 24%  
91 4% 18%  
92 5% 14%  
93 2% 8%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.2% 2%  
98 1.2% 1.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.3% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 99.4%  
77 1.0% 98.7%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 95% Median
80 3% 93%  
81 5% 90%  
82 6% 84%  
83 9% 78%  
84 8% 70%  
85 9% 62% Majority
86 11% 53%  
87 10% 42%  
88 11% 33%  
89 12% 22% Last Result
90 2% 9%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 1.3%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 5% 99.1%  
78 3% 95%  
79 2% 92%  
80 2% 89% Median
81 10% 87%  
82 13% 77%  
83 5% 64%  
84 11% 58%  
85 8% 47% Majority
86 8% 39%  
87 5% 31%  
88 10% 26% Last Result
89 5% 17%  
90 3% 12%  
91 5% 9%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.2%  
95 0.5% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.7%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 2% 93%  
80 12% 91% Last Result
81 11% 78%  
82 10% 67%  
83 11% 58% Median
84 9% 47%  
85 8% 38% Majority
86 9% 30%  
87 6% 22%  
88 5% 16%  
89 3% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.3% 0.3%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 1.2% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 98.7%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 5% 92% Median
78 4% 86%  
79 7% 82%  
80 10% 76%  
81 14% 66%  
82 7% 51%  
83 9% 45%  
84 8% 36%  
85 6% 27% Majority
86 12% 22%  
87 6% 10%  
88 1.3% 4% Last Result
89 1.0% 3%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.9%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.6%  
72 0.8% 99.0%  
73 3% 98%  
74 7% 95%  
75 8% 88%  
76 6% 80%  
77 6% 74% Median
78 11% 68%  
79 9% 57%  
80 12% 48% Last Result
81 11% 37%  
82 6% 25%  
83 4% 19%  
84 6% 15%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 1.4% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.5%  
69 0.7% 98%  
70 4% 97%  
71 4% 93%  
72 3% 89%  
73 9% 85%  
74 7% 77% Median
75 7% 70%  
76 7% 64%  
77 11% 57%  
78 13% 46%  
79 10% 33%  
80 9% 23% Last Result
81 3% 14%  
82 3% 11%  
83 5% 8%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 0.3% 2% Majority
86 0.8% 1.3%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.9% 99.3%  
70 3% 98%  
71 8% 96%  
72 7% 88%  
73 13% 82%  
74 11% 68%  
75 7% 57% Median
76 11% 50%  
77 8% 39%  
78 6% 30%  
79 7% 24% Last Result
80 6% 17%  
81 3% 10%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 1.4% 98.7%  
67 5% 97%  
68 6% 92%  
69 4% 86% Median
70 6% 82%  
71 11% 75%  
72 11% 64%  
73 8% 54%  
74 9% 46%  
75 4% 37%  
76 11% 33%  
77 7% 21% Last Result
78 3% 14%  
79 3% 11%  
80 5% 9%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.4% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.7% 99.7%  
65 0.6% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 7% 93%  
69 9% 86%  
70 9% 78%  
71 16% 69%  
72 9% 53% Last Result, Median
73 9% 44%  
74 6% 35%  
75 9% 29%  
76 7% 20%  
77 6% 13%  
78 4% 7%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.9%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 1.2% 99.5%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 7% 93%  
66 7% 86%  
67 5% 79% Median
68 8% 75%  
69 16% 67%  
70 13% 51%  
71 7% 37%  
72 9% 30%  
73 7% 22%  
74 5% 14%  
75 3% 10%  
76 3% 7% Last Result
77 1.4% 4%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.9% 99.2%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 1.0% 97% Last Result
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 92%  
65 14% 88%  
66 7% 74%  
67 8% 68% Median
68 11% 60%  
69 8% 49%  
70 7% 41%  
71 13% 34%  
72 3% 21%  
73 5% 18%  
74 3% 13%  
75 5% 10%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.6% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 3% 99.1%  
60 2% 96%  
61 15% 94%  
62 12% 79%  
63 14% 67%  
64 9% 53% Median
65 6% 44%  
66 9% 39%  
67 9% 29%  
68 8% 21% Last Result
69 5% 13%  
70 2% 8%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.5% 3%  
73 0.5% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.4%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 12% 97%  
54 6% 85%  
55 9% 79%  
56 16% 70%  
57 9% 54% Median
58 9% 45%  
59 10% 36%  
60 10% 25% Last Result
61 6% 16%  
62 4% 10%  
63 3% 6%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.8% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.8%  
48 2% 98%  
49 1.0% 96%  
50 2% 95%  
51 3% 93% Median
52 6% 91%  
53 5% 84%  
54 16% 79%  
55 12% 63%  
56 8% 50%  
57 8% 42%  
58 7% 35%  
59 4% 28%  
60 9% 24%  
61 8% 15% Last Result
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.3% 1.5%  
66 0.9% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.7%  
21 2% 99.0%  
22 5% 97%  
23 3% 92% Median
24 7% 89%  
25 5% 82%  
26 12% 78%  
27 15% 66%  
28 5% 51%  
29 16% 46%  
30 6% 30%  
31 5% 24%  
32 3% 19%  
33 6% 16%  
34 5% 10%  
35 2% 5% Last Result
36 3% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations