Opinion Poll by Sentio, 11–17 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.0% 25.9–30.3% 25.3–30.9% 24.8–31.4% 23.8–32.5%
Høyre 25.0% 27.4% 25.4–29.7% 24.8–30.3% 24.3–30.8% 23.3–31.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.9% 10.4–13.6% 10.0–14.1% 9.7–14.5% 9.1–15.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.1% 7.8–10.6% 7.5–11.0% 7.1–11.4% 6.6–12.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.1% 4.8–8.4% 4.3–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.8–5.7% 2.4–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.2% 2.6–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 46–56 45–57 44–58 42–60
Høyre 45 49 45–53 44–55 43–57 41–58
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–25 17–25 17–26 15–28
Senterpartiet 19 16 14–19 13–20 12–20 11–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–14 9–14 8–15 8–17
Rødt 1 8 2–11 2–11 2–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 1–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 0.9% 99.4%  
44 3% 98.6%  
45 3% 96%  
46 4% 92%  
47 4% 89%  
48 14% 85%  
49 10% 71% Last Result
50 13% 61% Median
51 8% 48%  
52 12% 40%  
53 8% 29%  
54 5% 20%  
55 4% 16%  
56 6% 12%  
57 2% 6%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.4% 1.1%  
60 0.6% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 1.3% 98.9%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 6% 92% Last Result
46 8% 86%  
47 7% 78%  
48 12% 71%  
49 12% 60% Median
50 9% 48%  
51 5% 39%  
52 15% 34%  
53 10% 19%  
54 3% 9%  
55 1.5% 6%  
56 1.1% 4%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.4% 0.9%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.5%  
17 5% 98.5%  
18 7% 93%  
19 10% 86%  
20 15% 76%  
21 18% 61% Median
22 9% 43%  
23 16% 34%  
24 7% 19%  
25 7% 11%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 1.5% Last Result
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.3%  
13 6% 97%  
14 10% 92%  
15 24% 82%  
16 11% 58% Median
17 22% 47%  
18 12% 25%  
19 6% 13% Last Result
20 5% 7%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.3% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.5%  
9 6% 97%  
10 18% 91%  
11 31% 73% Last Result, Median
12 15% 42%  
13 16% 27%  
14 7% 11%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 1.2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100% Last Result
2 13% 99.4%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.1% 87%  
7 12% 87%  
8 27% 75% Median
9 22% 48%  
10 15% 26%  
11 8% 11%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 15% 99.8%  
2 6% 85%  
3 26% 79%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.1% 53%  
7 14% 53% Median
8 26% 39% Last Result
9 8% 13%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 13% 99.9% Last Result
2 42% 87% Median
3 2% 45%  
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0.8% 43%  
7 13% 42%  
8 19% 28%  
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 18% 98.7%  
2 73% 80% Median
3 0.2% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0.1% 7%  
7 3% 7%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 98.7% 88–100 87–101 86–102 83–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 86% 84–98 84–99 83–99 80–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 73% 83–94 81–95 80–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 63% 81–92 80–94 78–94 75–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 37% 76–89 76–90 75–91 72–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 83 37% 77–88 75–89 75–91 71–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 7% 73–83 72–85 71–87 69–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 14% 71–85 70–85 70–86 67–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 4% 71–82 70–84 68–86 66–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.2% 67–77 66–80 64–81 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.2% 68–78 66–79 64–81 62–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 66–75 64–77 62–79 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–72 61–73 60–74 58–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 58–67 56–69 55–70 53–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 51–62 50–63 49–64 47–68
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 24 0% 19–29 18–29 17–31 16–33

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.7% 99.4%  
85 1.1% 98.7% Majority
86 1.5% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 8% 93%  
89 5% 84%  
90 5% 80%  
91 5% 74%  
92 7% 70%  
93 5% 63%  
94 6% 58%  
95 6% 52% Median
96 6% 46%  
97 8% 40%  
98 7% 32%  
99 5% 25%  
100 12% 20%  
101 5% 8%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.4% 2%  
104 0.7% 1.5%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.5%  
81 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
82 1.0% 98.8%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 11% 97%  
85 3% 86% Majority
86 5% 82%  
87 4% 77% Median
88 6% 73%  
89 6% 67%  
90 10% 61%  
91 9% 51%  
92 7% 42%  
93 3% 35%  
94 8% 32%  
95 3% 24%  
96 8% 21%  
97 3% 13%  
98 4% 10%  
99 4% 6%  
100 1.4% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.1%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.8% 99.4%  
80 2% 98.6%  
81 2% 96%  
82 2% 94%  
83 6% 92%  
84 12% 85%  
85 6% 73% Majority
86 5% 67% Median
87 5% 63%  
88 6% 57% Last Result
89 10% 51%  
90 8% 41%  
91 14% 33%  
92 4% 19%  
93 3% 15%  
94 5% 11%  
95 1.4% 6%  
96 1.4% 5%  
97 1.4% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.3%  
77 0.6% 99.0%  
78 2% 98%  
79 1.1% 96%  
80 2% 95% Last Result
81 4% 93%  
82 14% 88%  
83 4% 75%  
84 8% 71%  
85 7% 63% Median, Majority
86 7% 57%  
87 5% 50%  
88 11% 44%  
89 10% 33%  
90 5% 24%  
91 4% 18%  
92 6% 14%  
93 3% 8%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.4%  
97 0.4% 0.9%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.4%  
74 0.8% 98.6%  
75 2% 98%  
76 11% 96%  
77 3% 84%  
78 3% 82%  
79 5% 78% Median
80 5% 73% Last Result
81 5% 68%  
82 10% 63%  
83 9% 54%  
84 8% 45%  
85 7% 37% Majority
86 3% 30%  
87 6% 27%  
88 9% 21%  
89 5% 12%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.5%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.5%  
73 0.5% 99.1%  
74 1.0% 98.6%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 6% 92%  
78 4% 86%  
79 5% 82%  
80 10% 76%  
81 11% 67% Median
82 5% 56%  
83 7% 50%  
84 7% 43%  
85 8% 37% Majority
86 4% 29%  
87 14% 25%  
88 4% 12%  
89 2% 7% Last Result
90 1.1% 5%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.0%  
94 0.5% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 1.3% 99.1%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 16% 90%  
75 3% 74%  
76 5% 71%  
77 8% 66% Median
78 5% 58%  
79 8% 53% Last Result
80 11% 45%  
81 10% 33%  
82 9% 23%  
83 5% 14%  
84 2% 9%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.2% 4%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.4% 0.4%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 1.4% 98.9%  
70 4% 98%  
71 4% 94%  
72 3% 90%  
73 8% 87%  
74 3% 79%  
75 8% 76%  
76 3% 68%  
77 7% 65%  
78 9% 58%  
79 10% 49% Median
80 6% 39%  
81 6% 33%  
82 4% 27%  
83 5% 23%  
84 3% 18%  
85 11% 14% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 1.4% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 4% 94%  
72 5% 90%  
73 15% 84%  
74 6% 70%  
75 5% 64% Median
76 6% 59%  
77 5% 52% Last Result
78 13% 48%  
79 9% 34%  
80 7% 26%  
81 7% 19%  
82 3% 12%  
83 2% 9%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.3% 4% Majority
86 0.6% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.2%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.4%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 1.2% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 4% 91%  
68 3% 87%  
69 4% 84%  
70 9% 80%  
71 18% 71%  
72 11% 53%  
73 6% 42% Median
74 7% 36%  
75 5% 29%  
76 9% 24% Last Result
77 5% 14%  
78 3% 10%  
79 2% 7%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.5% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 1.1% 99.4%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 0.6% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 95%  
68 6% 92%  
69 6% 85%  
70 8% 79%  
71 12% 71%  
72 7% 59% Median
73 7% 52%  
74 8% 45%  
75 5% 37%  
76 6% 32%  
77 16% 26%  
78 3% 10%  
79 2% 7%  
80 1.3% 5% Last Result
81 2% 3%  
82 0.7% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 1.2% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 0.8% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 4% 94%  
66 7% 90%  
67 4% 83%  
68 8% 80%  
69 15% 72%  
70 7% 57% Median
71 8% 50%  
72 7% 42% Last Result
73 6% 35%  
74 6% 30%  
75 14% 24%  
76 5% 10%  
77 1.3% 5%  
78 0.7% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 1.0% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 93%  
63 19% 91%  
64 6% 72%  
65 6% 66%  
66 5% 60% Median
67 5% 55%  
68 10% 50% Last Result
69 16% 40%  
70 6% 24%  
71 5% 18%  
72 4% 13%  
73 4% 9%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.3% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 1.2%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 0.6% 99.1%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 4% 97%  
57 3% 93%  
58 5% 91%  
59 14% 86%  
60 9% 72% Last Result
61 6% 63% Median
62 9% 57%  
63 15% 48%  
64 5% 33%  
65 7% 28%  
66 9% 21%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 5%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 8% 93%  
52 6% 85%  
53 8% 80%  
54 5% 71%  
55 5% 66%  
56 5% 61%  
57 5% 56%  
58 14% 51% Median
59 5% 38%  
60 5% 32%  
61 4% 27% Last Result
62 16% 24%  
63 4% 8%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 1.2% 98%  
18 3% 97%  
19 13% 94%  
20 5% 82%  
21 7% 77%  
22 7% 70%  
23 8% 62%  
24 6% 54%  
25 17% 48% Median
26 6% 30%  
27 6% 24%  
28 8% 18%  
29 5% 10%  
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations