Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 24–26 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.6% 26.8–30.6% 26.3–31.2% 25.8–31.6% 25.0–32.6%
Høyre 25.0% 25.8% 24.0–27.6% 23.5–28.2% 23.0–28.7% 22.2–29.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.9% 13.5–16.5% 13.1–17.0% 12.8–17.4% 12.1–18.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.6% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.3% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 52 49–55 48–55 48–57 46–60
Høyre 45 47 43–50 43–51 42–53 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–29 24–30 23–31 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 16–22 16–22 15–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–13 10–14 9–14 8–16
Rødt 1 9 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–3 0–7 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 0.9% 99.3%  
48 6% 98%  
49 5% 92% Last Result
50 8% 87%  
51 7% 79%  
52 30% 72% Median
53 9% 41%  
54 10% 32%  
55 17% 22%  
56 0.9% 4%  
57 1.3% 4%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.9% 1.5%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.3%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 8% 97%  
44 3% 89%  
45 16% 86% Last Result
46 9% 69%  
47 32% 60% Median
48 4% 28%  
49 7% 24%  
50 10% 18%  
51 3% 7%  
52 1.1% 4%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 1.5% 2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.4%  
23 1.4% 98.6%  
24 12% 97%  
25 14% 85%  
26 14% 71%  
27 7% 57% Last Result, Median
28 38% 50%  
29 5% 12%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.3% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.6%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 25% 98%  
17 4% 72%  
18 26% 68% Median
19 11% 42% Last Result
20 11% 31%  
21 12% 20%  
22 7% 8%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0.2% 99.7%  
8 2% 99.6%  
9 2% 98%  
10 13% 96%  
11 50% 82% Last Result, Median
12 11% 32%  
13 13% 21%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.6% 1.2%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 13% 99.9%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 3% 87%  
8 23% 84%  
9 25% 61% Median
10 28% 36%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 26% 94%  
2 14% 68%  
3 46% 54% Median
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 3% 8%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 79% 96% Last Result, Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 44% 84% Median
2 40% 40%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 100% 92–100 92–102 92–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 96% 88–96 86–97 84–97 83–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 95% 87–95 84–96 82–96 82–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 53% 83–90 81–90 80–92 78–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 39% 80–88 79–89 78–89 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 28% 79–87 78–87 77–87 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 80 5% 74–82 73–84 73–87 71–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 4% 73–81 72–83 72–85 70–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 76 1.2% 70–78 70–81 70–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.5% 70–79 69–79 69–81 67–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.1% 70–77 68–79 68–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 69–78 69–78 68–80 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 67–76 66–76 65–76 64–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 61–66 60–67 59–69 57–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 48–55 46–58 45–58 44–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 22 0% 20–25 19–27 18–28 17–30

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.4%  
90 0.9% 99.2%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 8% 98%  
93 7% 89%  
94 15% 83%  
95 30% 68%  
96 6% 37% Median
97 3% 32%  
98 10% 29%  
99 7% 19%  
100 2% 12%  
101 3% 10%  
102 2% 7%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 2% 99.7%  
84 2% 98%  
85 0.3% 96% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 4% 94%  
88 4% 90%  
89 9% 86%  
90 24% 78%  
91 9% 54% Median
92 7% 44%  
93 8% 38%  
94 5% 30%  
95 11% 25%  
96 7% 14%  
97 6% 7%  
98 0.4% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 3% 99.8%  
83 2% 97%  
84 0.6% 95%  
85 1.1% 95% Majority
86 3% 94%  
87 2% 91%  
88 11% 88%  
89 28% 77%  
90 11% 49% Median
91 0.8% 38%  
92 8% 38%  
93 7% 30%  
94 8% 23%  
95 7% 14%  
96 6% 7%  
97 0.2% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 1.1% 99.2%  
80 0.9% 98%  
81 3% 97%  
82 3% 95%  
83 29% 91%  
84 9% 62%  
85 2% 53% Median, Majority
86 11% 52%  
87 10% 41%  
88 8% 31% Last Result
89 2% 23%  
90 16% 21%  
91 1.4% 4%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 0.2% 2%  
94 0.6% 2%  
95 1.0% 1.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 1.3% 99.4%  
77 0.6% 98%  
78 2% 98%  
79 1.1% 96%  
80 33% 94% Last Result
81 4% 62%  
82 4% 58% Median
83 4% 53%  
84 10% 50%  
85 12% 39% Majority
86 6% 28%  
87 8% 21%  
88 6% 14%  
89 6% 7%  
90 0.3% 1.5%  
91 0.1% 1.2%  
92 0.4% 1.1%  
93 0.1% 0.7%  
94 0.6% 0.6%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 1.2% 99.3%  
76 0.6% 98%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 30% 94% Last Result
80 7% 64%  
81 4% 57% Median
82 9% 53%  
83 7% 44%  
84 9% 37%  
85 7% 28% Majority
86 8% 21%  
87 11% 13%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.2% 1.4%  
90 0.2% 1.2%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0% 0.6%  
93 0.6% 0.6%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.6%  
72 0.2% 99.4%  
73 6% 99.1%  
74 7% 93%  
75 8% 85%  
76 7% 77%  
77 8% 70%  
78 0.8% 62%  
79 11% 61% Median
80 28% 51%  
81 11% 23%  
82 2% 12%  
83 3% 9%  
84 1.1% 6%  
85 0.6% 5% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 3% 3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 6% 99.0%  
73 7% 93%  
74 11% 85%  
75 5% 75%  
76 8% 70%  
77 7% 62%  
78 9% 55% Median
79 24% 46%  
80 8% 22%  
81 4% 14%  
82 4% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 0.3% 5%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.0%  
69 0.2% 98.6%  
70 12% 98%  
71 5% 86%  
72 2% 81%  
73 13% 79%  
74 4% 65%  
75 8% 61% Median
76 23% 53%  
77 18% 30%  
78 2% 12%  
79 2% 10%  
80 2% 7% Last Result
81 1.3% 5%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.1% 1.3%  
85 1.2% 1.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 1.1% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 98.7%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 95%  
71 2% 89%  
72 29% 87%  
73 11% 59%  
74 7% 48% Median
75 2% 41%  
76 6% 39%  
77 13% 33% Last Result
78 1.2% 20%  
79 15% 19%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.2% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.5% 0.5% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 98.9%  
68 6% 98.6%  
69 2% 92%  
70 11% 91%  
71 8% 80%  
72 5% 72% Last Result
73 8% 67%  
74 7% 59% Median
75 31% 52%  
76 5% 21%  
77 7% 15%  
78 2% 8%  
79 0.9% 6%  
80 1.2% 5%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.2% 1.4%  
83 1.1% 1.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 8% 97%  
70 3% 89%  
71 30% 85%  
72 10% 55%  
73 4% 45% Median
74 3% 42%  
75 5% 39%  
76 13% 33% Last Result
77 4% 20%  
78 12% 16%  
79 0.8% 4%  
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.2% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.5% 0.5%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.6%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 6% 96%  
67 1.4% 90%  
68 26% 89% Last Result
69 5% 62%  
70 11% 57% Median
71 8% 46%  
72 4% 37%  
73 9% 34%  
74 1.4% 25%  
75 12% 23%  
76 9% 11%  
77 0.6% 2%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0% 0.3%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 0.9% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96% Last Result
61 9% 93%  
62 8% 84%  
63 29% 76% Median
64 12% 47%  
65 11% 35%  
66 18% 24%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.0% 4%  
69 0.6% 3%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.3% 99.7%  
45 0.9% 98%  
46 4% 97%  
47 0.9% 94%  
48 19% 93%  
49 15% 74%  
50 3% 59%  
51 30% 56% Median
52 6% 26%  
53 2% 20%  
54 6% 18%  
55 5% 12%  
56 1.4% 7%  
57 0.3% 5%  
58 4% 5%  
59 1.2% 1.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.6%  
18 2% 99.3%  
19 3% 97%  
20 29% 94%  
21 13% 65%  
22 10% 52% Median
23 13% 42%  
24 12% 29%  
25 8% 18%  
26 3% 9%  
27 3% 6%  
28 0.9% 3%  
29 1.1% 2%  
30 0.9% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations